Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 030839 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...LESLIE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.3N 30.5W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 30.5 West. Leslie is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a slightly faster west-northwestward motion Friday through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 529 FONT13 KNHC 030839 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...KIRK FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of Kirk was located near 20.0, -45.0 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 030838 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...KIRK FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 45.0W ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1645 MI...2645 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 45.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands on Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, and the east coast of the United States and the Bahamas on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 030838 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 030838 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.5W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.5W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.7N 37.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 15.3N 40.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 30.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 030837 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 45.0W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 45.0W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 44.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.8N 46.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.5N 49.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.4N 50.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.0N 50.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.3N 49.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...210NE 230SE 150SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 38.5N 42.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 280SE 220SW 170NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 44.7N 30.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 140SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 240SW 260NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030530
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a surface trough. A broad area of low
pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico late this
weekend or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical
development could be limited by the system's potential interaction
with a frontal boundary. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days
and over portions of the Florida Peninsula next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Leslie are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Leslie
are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 02:41:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 03:23:07 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 02:39:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 03:29:01 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030238 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 Kirk has undergone an impressive period of rapid intensification over the past 24 h. Recent satellite imagery showed a ragged eye, with multiple deep bursts of convection rotating in the eyewall. Overshooting tops are obscuring the eye now, but it would not be surprising if it clears again soon. As noted in the special advisory, the subjective Dvorak satellite estimates have climbed but were constrained. The initial intensity is nudged up to 110 kt for this advisory, closest to the T6.0 data-T number from SAB. The hurricane has strengthened 55 kt since 0300 UTC last night, which means Kirk lands at a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The hurricane continues to be steered by the subtropical ridge to the northwest at an estimated 310/9 kt. Little has changed in the track forecast reasoning. On Friday night or Saturday, Kirk is expected to gradually turn north-northwestward to northward and accelerate in the flow between a deep-layer trough and the weakening subtropical ridge. Later in the weekend, Kirk is expected to continue accelerating north-northeastward to northeastward. Few changes have been made to the latest official track forecast, which lie close to various consensus aids. Given Kirk's recent rapid intensification, conditions appear conducive for further strengthening during the next day or so. The short-term forecast is therefore above all of the guidance now, peaking at 130 kt in 24 h. By Friday, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase and gradually weaken Kirk through the remainder of the forecast period. As the hurricane moves more poleward, Kirk's tropical-storm-force winds are predicted to grow and send large swell westward to the northern Leeward Islands and the Bahamas over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.5N 44.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 20.4N 45.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 21.7N 47.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 23.1N 48.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 24.8N 49.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 27.0N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 30.0N 50.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 36.8N 45.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 43.9N 35.2W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

...MAJOR HURRICANE KIRK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of Kirk was located near 19.5, -44.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 832 WTNT32 KNHC 030238 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE KIRK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 44.5W ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 44.5 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected over the day or so with a gradual turn to the north-northwest and north by this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are beginning to spread outward and could affect portions of the Leeward Islands and Bermuda by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 030238 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 030237 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the system has become better organized with convective bands wrapping about two-thirds of the way around the center. A partial ASCAT pass from around 2230 UTC showed winds very close to tropical storm force northeast of the center. Since the system has continued to become organized since the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Leslie. This intensity estimate is also in agreement with a 2.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB. Leslie is moving slowly to the west at about 5 kt. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 2 to 3 days as Leslie remains steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its north. Beyond that time, a slightly faster motion to the northwest is predicted as the storm moves on the western periphery of the ridge and approaches a broad trough over the central Atlantic. The models are in fair agreement overall, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Leslie is currently in a moderate wind shear environment due to the outflow from major Hurricane Kirk to its northwest. However, the shear is expected to lessen while Leslie remains over warm waters and in a moist environment. These condition should support steady strengthening during the next few days, and the official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one. Beyond a few days, Leslie is predicted to move over Kirk's prior track and associated cool wake, and into a slightly drier air mass. These conditions could cause the intensity to level off. The new forecast is in best agreement with the latest HCCA guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 10.4N 30.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 12.2N 37.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 14.3N 39.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 17.0N 42.9W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 030237 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 44.5W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......190NE 190SE 80SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 44.5W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 44.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.4N 45.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.7N 47.1W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.1N 48.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.8N 49.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.0N 50.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 36.8N 45.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 170SW 150NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 43.9N 35.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...260NE 280SE 210SW 230NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 44.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 030236 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

...LESLIE FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of Leslie was located near 10.4, -30.1 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 030236 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...LESLIE FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.4N 30.1W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 30.1 West. Leslie is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 030236 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 30.1W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 30.1W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 29.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.2N 37.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 14.3N 39.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 17.0N 42.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 30.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI