Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 021452 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 Kirk continues to intensify this morning. On geostationary satellite imagery convective bands continue to rotate around the eye seen earlier in microwave imagery, although this feature hasn't shown up yet on visible imagery. The subjective Dvorak estimates were a consensus T4.5/77 kt, and blending these estimates with somewhat lower objective intensity estimates, the intensity has been raised to 75 kt this advisory. Kirk continues moving northwestward, or 305/10 kt. A gradual slowdown at a similar heading is expected over the next day or two as the hurricane remains steered by a subtropical ridge centered to its northeast. At the end of the week, Kirk will find itself between an increasingly eroded ridge to its east, and a digging upper-level trough to its west, and it is likely Kirk will be steered between these features, recurving northward, and then north-northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the prior one, especially over the next several days, but is a little further northwest thereafter, blending the prior track forecast to the consensus aids TCVA and HCCA, though in general the track spread among the track guidance remains relatively low. Kirk appears poised to intensify quite a bit in the short-term now that shear has decreased as the hurricane remains over very warm ocean waters and plenty of deep-layer moisture. These favorable conditions should promote notable strengthening, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows Kirk becoming a major hurricane in 24 h, and peaking as a 115 kt Category 4 hurricane in 48 h. Thereafter, southwesterly shear from the upper-level trough to its west could begin to increase, leading to a gradual weakening trend. The latest intensity forecast is a little higher than earlier, owing to somewhat higher intensity guidance aids this cycle, but still remains lower than some of the more bullish guidance (HAFS-B) but is roughly in line with HCCA this cycle. Kirk is also expected to continue growing in size with a larger than average radius of both tropical storm and hurricane-force wind radii as it recurves into the open Atlantic Ocean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.0N 43.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.0N 44.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.2N 45.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.3N 47.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 22.7N 48.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 26.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 32.7N 49.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 39.6N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

...KIRK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of Kirk was located near 18.0, -43.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 021447 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...KIRK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 43.0W ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 43.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected over the next several days with a gradual turn more to the north-northwest by the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Kirk is forecast to become a major hurricane tomorrow. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are beginning to spread outward and could affect affect portions of Leeward Islands and Bermuda by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 021447 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 021447 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 43.0W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......170NE 180SE 70SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 43.0W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 42.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 44.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.2N 45.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.3N 47.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.7N 48.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.7N 50.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 32.7N 49.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 150SW 170NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 39.6N 42.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...250NE 290SE 250SW 190NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 43.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 14:47:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 14:47:03 GMT

Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 021445 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 200 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024 The system we have been monitoring several hundred miles to the southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands has become gradually better organized this morning with some curved bands organizing to the west of the estimated center. Visible satellite images show that at least a broad closed circulation has developed. Based on the latest subjective Dvorak fixes of T2.5/35-kt from TAFB and T1.5/25-kt from SAB, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Thirteen, with an initial intensity in between these estimates at 30 kt. The depressions initial motion appears to be slowly due west, at 270/6 kt. Over the next day or two this motion should continue, though some of the track guidance actually shows a south of due west motion, partially related to the steering flow and also the possibility that the center might try to reform underneath deep convective bursts in the southern semicircle. After 48 h, the guidance shows TD13 turning west-northwestward and then northwestward by the end of the forecast as mid-level ridging becomes more eroded on its northwestern side while a large long-wave trough becomes established over the Northwest Atlantic. The initial NHC track forecast has opted to favor a track close to the consensus aid TVCN. Interestingly, both the GFS and ECMWF are on the east side of the guidance, while HCCA is on the western side by the end of the forecast period. Intensity wise, initial strengthening could be on the slower end, as the system has to deal with some northwesterly shear related of the outflow from the much larger Hurricane Kirk impinging upon the system. However, the guidance insists this shear will soon decrease, especially after 24-36 h where the upper-level flow seems to split off into a cutoff low to the southwest, and a upper-level trough that shifts east of the depression, leaving the depression in a more favorable upper-level diffluent pattern. After TD13's inner core become better defined, the rate of intensification could increase after 36 h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast forecasts the depression to become a hurricane in 3 days. Additional intensification is forecast after that point as long as the cyclone tracks far enough away from the cold ocean wake left behind by Kirk. This forecast is roughly in the mean of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 10.6N 29.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 10.5N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 11.0N 34.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 11.7N 35.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 13.5N 38.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 41.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THIS WEEKEND... As of 2:00 PM CVT Wed Oct 2 the center of Thirteen was located near 10.6, -29.1 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024 441 WTNT33 KNHC 021443 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 200 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 29.1W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 29.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a general westward motion is expected for the next day or so followed by a turn more west-northwestward by the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a tropical storm by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 021443 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 021442 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 29.1W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 29.1W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 28.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 10.5N 29.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 11.0N 34.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 11.7N 35.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 13.5N 38.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 41.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 29.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader
disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the
U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 08:49:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 09:22:56 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 020847 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 Satellite imagery over the past 6 to 12 hours indicates a gradual improvement in the organization of Kirk's central dense overcast. The low-level center is likely underneath the southern portion of the central convective area. The cyclone is also growing in size. Convective banding in the southeast semicircle sprawls out a far distance away from the center. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 65 to 77 kt, while objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are ranging from 61 to 71 kt. The initial intensity is nudged up to 70 kt based on an average of the subjective estimates. Kirk has been moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt. A similar heading at perhaps a slightly slower forward speed is expected through Thursday as Kirk is steered by a subtropical ridge. By the end of the week, Kirk will gradually turn northward in between an approaching deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected by the end of the weekend, and the models remain in good agreement on this scenario. The new NHC track forecast is nearly unchanged from the previous one through 72 h, but a bit west of the previous forecast beyond 72 h. The NHC forecast is in best agreement with the TVCA consensus aid. Favorable environmental conditions are forecast to continue for the next 60 to 72 hours as Kirk travels over warm sea-surface temperatures and within a relatively moist environment with weak deep-layer vertical wind shear. These favorable conditions should allow for continued steady strengthening, and Kirk is forecast to become a major hurricane on Thursday. By hour 96, Kirk is likely to experience stronger southwesterly wind shear, which should begin a weakening trend. The latest intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies in the middle to upper portion of the guidance envelope. Kirk is a large tropical cyclone and is expected to grow into a very large and powerful major hurricane over the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.5N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.4N 43.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.5N 44.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.7N 46.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 21.9N 47.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 23.4N 49.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 25.3N 50.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 30.8N 50.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 37.4N 44.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen

...KIRK STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO GROW LARGER... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of Kirk was located near 17.5, -42.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 020844 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...KIRK STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO GROW LARGER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 42.1W ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 42.1 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 020844 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 020843 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.1W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 70SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.1W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 41.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N 43.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 44.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.7N 46.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.9N 47.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.4N 49.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.3N 50.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 30.8N 50.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 140SW 170NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 37.4N 44.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 180NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 42.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

765
ABNT20 KNHC 020513
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader
disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the
U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 02:43:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 03:22:56 GMT