Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 091 WTNT42 KNHC 030036 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Special Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 800 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 Kirk is undergoing rapid intensification this evening. Geostationary satellite imagery has shown an eye clearing and Dvorak estimates are rising as quickly as they are allowed. The initial intensity is set to a possibly conservative 105 kt, closest to the final-T number (T5.5) from TAFB. The intensity forecast has been increased between 12 through 48 h. No changes were made to the intensity forecast beyond 60 h, or the track and wind radii predictions. The next forecast will be released at the normally scheduled time (11 PM AST). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0000Z 19.3N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.9N 45.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 46.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 22.4N 48.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 23.8N 49.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 35.1N 47.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 42.5N 38.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

Issued at 0000 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 030035 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0000 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 0000Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI

...KIRK RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of Kirk was located near 19.3, -44.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 030035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Special Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 800 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...KIRK RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 44.3W ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 44.3 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected over the day or so with a gradual turn more to the north-northwest and northward by this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are beginning to spread outward and could affect portions of Leeward Islands and Bermuda by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

Issued at 0000 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 030035 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0000 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 44.3W AT 03/0000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......190NE 190SE 80SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 44.3W AT 03/0000Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 43.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 45.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.1N 46.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.4N 48.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.8N 49.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 35.1N 47.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 170SW 150NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 42.5N 38.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 280SE 230SW 190NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 44.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022347
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Depression Thirteen, located over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could
support some gradual development of this system over the Gulf of
Mexico this weekend while the system drifts eastward. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico
during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula
by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 20:47:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 21:23:08 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 022045 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 This afternoon, Kirk has the appearance of an intensifying hurricane. While the eye still remains obscured on visible satellite imagery, an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass at 1604 UTC showed the inner-core continues to improve, with a notable cyan ring on the 37 GHz channel. This signal is often a harbinger of more substantial intensification. While the subjective Dvorak estimates remain unchanged from this morning, the improvement of the storm structure on microwave imagery suggests intensification has continued, and the initial intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory. The hurricane has maintained its motion throughout the day, still northwestward at 310/10 kt. There is not a lot of new information to report about the track philosophy, with Kirk expected to round the western edge of the subtropical ridge that has been its primary steering mechanism over the last few days. This ridge is forecast to become eroded by a deep-layer trough approaching from the west, and Kirk will ultimately track in between these two features, beginning to accelerate as the tropical cyclone recurves into the higher latitudes. The track guidance remains in good agreement with lower-than-average spread on the forecast track, and the NHC track is very similar to the prior advisory and is quite close to both the ECMWF, GFS, and consensus aid track solutions. All systems appear go for Kirk to intensify significantly over the next couple of days, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the hurricane intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane in 48 h, in good agreement with the hurricane-regional model guidance. Thereafter, inner-core fluctuations plus increasing southwesterly shear from the upper-level trough to its west is expected to cause gradual weakening, as shown in the NHC forecast after that time. Kirk is also expected to continue growing in size through the forecast period. By the end of the forecast, Kirk should begin extratropical transition in the high-latitudes, likely to be completed just beyond day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.9N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.9N 45.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 46.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 22.4N 48.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 23.8N 49.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 35.1N 47.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 42.5N 38.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 022042 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...KIRK EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND FORMIDABLE MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of Kirk was located near 18.9, -44.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 022042 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...KIRK EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND FORMIDABLE MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 44.0W ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 44.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected over the day or so with a gradual turn more to the north-northwest and northward by this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next several days and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane tomorrow. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are beginning to spread outward and could affect portions of Leeward Islands and Bermuda by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 022042 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 44.0W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......190NE 190SE 80SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 44.0W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 43.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 45.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.1N 46.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.4N 48.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.8N 49.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 35.1N 47.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 170SW 150NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 42.5N 38.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 280SE 230SW 190NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 44.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 022041 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 800 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024 Tropical Depression Thirteen has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with improving circulation definition and convection continuing to curve cyclonically in a banded fashion on its western side. However, Dvorak intensity estimates have not changed much this afternoon, still at T2.5/35-kt from TAFB and T1.5/25-kt from SAB, so the initial intensity will remain 30 kt. The depression appears to be moving just south of due west following along from previous fixes with a current estimated motion at 260/7 kt. This motion has resulted in a slight southward track shift from the previous forecast but remains close to the consensus aid TVCN. This motion should continue over the next day or so guided by a steering ridge to the north and enhanced convection along the southern semicircle potentially pulling it southward as the depression organizes. Track guidance then shows TD13 turning west-northwestward after 48 hours and ultimately northwestward towards the end of the forecast period as the ridge steering becomes more eroded on its western side. The track guidance was very similar to the previous cycle, albeit a touch further south in 5 days, and the latest NHC track has been nudged a bit further south towards the end of the forecast. The forecast for this cycle shows a somewhat faster intensification rate than the prior advisory, with the system now becoming a hurricane in 48 hours, and peaking at 80 kt in 72 hours, due to decreasing shear and plenty of warm ocean waters and moisture early on in the forecast. The intensity guidance then proceeds to show the intensity plateauing after 72 hours as the system could encounter the edge of Hurricane Kirk's large area of ocean upwelling. Both HAFS-A/B show this potentially limiting the intensity in the longer term, but the NHC intensity forecast could be conservative if TD13 ends up tracking further south than forecasted. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 10.5N 29.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 10.2N 30.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 10.6N 33.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 13.8N 38.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 16.5N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 20:39:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 21:29:06 GMT

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 8:00 PM CVT Wed Oct 2 the center of Thirteen was located near 10.5, -29.7 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 800 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 022037 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 800 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.5N 29.7W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 29.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days and the depression could become a hurricane by the end of the week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 022037 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER TORRES-VAZQUEZ/PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 022037 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 29.7W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 29.7W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 29.3W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 10.2N 30.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.6N 33.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 13.8N 38.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 29.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER TORRES-VAZQUEZ/PAPIN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021734
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
newly-developed Tropical Depression Thirteen, located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized areas of
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions could
support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend as the broader disturbance
moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf
Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over
portions of Mexico during the next several days and over portions
of the Florida Peninsula by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 14:54:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 15:23:08 GMT