...ISAAC BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM GMT Mon Sep 30 the center of Isaac was located near 44.8, -29.1 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 301453 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 ...ISAAC BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.8N 29.1W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM NNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac was located near latitude 44.8 North, longitude 29.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a turn to the northeast is expected with a similar forward motion for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will affect the Azores over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. Additional information on this system can also be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast/. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 931 WTNT25 KNHC 301452 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 29.1W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 360SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 29.1W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.6N 30.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 46.0N 26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 47.6N 23.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...160NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 49.3N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 50.6N 20.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 52.0N 19.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 54.0N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.8N 29.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ISAAC. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 669 WTNT21 KNHC 301434 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 49.3W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 49.3W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 49.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.1N 49.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.1N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.3N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.0N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 49.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KONARIK/PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 14:37:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 21:22:59 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 301436 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Joyce continues to struggle to remain a tropical depression, having a fully exposed low-level center displaced to the west of pulsing deep convection. This displacement is a result of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of a central Atlantic upper-level trough. With no recent surface observations or scatterometer wind data available, 30 kt will remain the initial intensity, reflecting the subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB and SAB. The depression has meandered this morning, and the current motion estimate is an uncertain 360/2 kt. The official track forecast depicts a slow northward motion until Joyce fully dissipates in 48 h, similar to the previous track forecast. Continued shear coupled with persistent dry air should increasingly inhibit organized convection, leading to Joyce degenerating into a remnant low soon. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous one showing Joyce becoming a remnant low in 12 h with total dissipation in about 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 22.4N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.1N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1200Z 24.1N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0000Z 25.3N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z 27.0N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Konarik/Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 301435 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KONARIK/PAPIN

...JOYCE BARELY REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Joyce was located near 22.4, -49.3 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 301435 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 ...JOYCE BARELY REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 49.3W ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 49.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a general northerly motion is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce is expected to become a remnant low soon. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Konarik/Papin

...KIRK FORECAST TO BECOME A VERY LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Kirk was located near 13.6, -35.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 935 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 ZCZC MIATCUAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Kirk Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 935 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 ...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATES DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM KIRK... Recently received satellite wind data indicates that Tropical Depression Twelve has become Tropical Storm Kirk with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph (70 km/h). The satellite imagery also suggests the system has reformed a bit south of the earlier estimated position. This information with an updated track and intensity forecast will be reflected in the upcoming advisory at 11am AST. SUMMARY OF 935 AM AST...1335 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 34.4W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake NNNN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located several hundred miles north of the Azores, on
Tropical Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean,
and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the
western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of
Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. While interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for
potential development has shifted later toward late week or this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 08:40:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 09:34:56 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 08:40:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 09:28:49 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 08:39:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 09:23:00 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 300838 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Tropical Depression Twelve has become better organized overnight. A 29/2338 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed a large area of 25 to 30 kt winds, and that the center was located near the northern edge of the large convective mass. Although a 30/0334 UTC AMSR2 microwave image showed that the center was still located near the northern edge of the central convective area, curved banding has been increasing during the night, with a large area of cold cloud tops persisting. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T-2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are rising and now range from 36 to 41 kt. Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates, a 30 kt initial intensity is held for this advisory, but the depression is likely very near tropical storm strength. The estimated initial motion of the depression is westward, or 275/7 kt. The cyclone will continue moving westward to west-northwestward for another couple days while a well-established subtropical ridge remains in place to the north of the system. A gradual turn to the northwest is expected around mid-week as a deep-layer trough over the north-central Atlantic weakens the ridge. At the end of the forecast period, an approaching upper-level trough near Bermuda will induce the cyclone to turn northward over the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean. Some along-track spread is noted in the various track model solutions, but the models are in good agreement on the northward turn, with little cross-track spread. The latest NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one, and is about halfway between the slower GFS solution and the faster ECMWF model. Conditions are quite favorable along the path of the depression with 29 degree C sea-surface temperatures, a moist environment, and weak vertical wind shear. Given the weak shear and the gradually improving structure, the cyclone should begin to steadily intensify soon. The depression is forecast to become a hurricane in 36 to 48 hours and a major hurricane in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies between the middle and upper end of the intensity guidance suite, near the HCCA and IVCN multi-model consensus aids. It should be noted that most of the models indicate that the cyclone's wind and wave field will expand significantly over the next several days, and the system is forecast to become a large and powerful hurricane as it gains latitude later this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 14.0N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 14.1N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 14.3N 37.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 14.9N 39.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 15.8N 41.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 17.1N 42.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 18.4N 44.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 20.7N 46.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 23.4N 48.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen

...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Twelve was located near 14.0, -34.1 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 300838 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 ...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 34.1W ABOUT 690 MI...1105 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 34.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is likely to become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 300838 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300837 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Joyce's center is mostly exposed, with only a few cells of deep convection forming intermittently within the circulation. Joyce continues to experience strong southwesterly vertical wind shear due to a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The current intensity is held at 30 kt which is similar to the objective AIDT and DPRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS. This may be a generous estimate, however, given the current appearance of the system. The cyclone has not moved much with only a slightly south of westward drift noted, and the current motion estimate is 260/2 kt. It seems that the weakened system is now being steered primarily by the low-level flow. Therefore the official track forecast is slower than the previous predictions. This is similar to the motion implied by the latest ECMWF forecast fields which show a very weak system drifting generally northward for the next day or two. Given the lack of convection, the environment of dry air, and the expectation of persistent shear, Joyce should soon degenerate into a remnant low. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. The remnant cyclone should dissipate in 48-60 hours if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 22.1N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 22.8N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/0600Z 23.6N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z 24.7N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0600Z 25.8N 49.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch