Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 300239 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Twelve was located near 13.9, -33.2 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 300238 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 33.2W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 33.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster rate of intensification through midweek. The depression could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 300238 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 300238 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 33.2W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 33.2W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 32.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.0N 34.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.2N 36.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.5N 38.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.2N 40.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.4N 42.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 43.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 65SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 100SW 170NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 22.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...210NE 200SE 130SW 190NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 33.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 02:37:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 03:28:58 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300236 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 The exposed center of Joyce is completely devoid of convection, with only a few intermittent bursts noted in satellite imagery during the past several hours. If the system is unable to generate and sustain organized convection soon, it will degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. A partial scatterometer pass indicates that winds over the eastern part of the circulation have diminished, and the satellite intensity estimates have continued to fall this evening. Based on these data and the degraded satellite presentation, Joyce is downgraded to a 30-kt depression. The storm is still moving northwestward (310/5 kt), but is forecast to turn northward soon toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly left of the previous one based on current motion trends. Joyce is surrounded by a dry air mass and is expected to face continued southwesterly shear, making it unlikely for the system to sustain organized deep convection going forward. Thus, the updated NHC forecast shows Joyce degenerating to a post-tropical remnant low by late Monday. However, this could occur even sooner if convection does not regenerate overnight. The global models agree that Joyce should open into a trough and dissipate by Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 22.3N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 22.9N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 23.6N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1200Z 24.5N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0000Z 25.7N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...JOYCE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Joyce was located near 22.3, -49.6 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 300235 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 ...JOYCE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 49.6W ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 49.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Joyce is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low on Monday and dissipate by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 300235 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 292331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores,
on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean,
and on newly formed Tropical Depression Twelve, located over the
eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week
while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. This system
is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico
during the latter portion of this week. Interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave located a few hundred miles off the
west coast of Africa is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and
a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter part of
this week while moving slowly westward or west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...COULD BECOME A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Twelve was located near 13.8, -32.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 946 WTNT32 KNHC 292043 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...COULD BECOME A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 32.5W ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 2050 MI...3300 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 32.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so followed by a faster rate of intensification by the middle portion of this week. The depression could become a hurricane by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 872 FONT12 KNHC 292043 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 180 WTNT41 KNHC 292042 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 Joyce's center continues to be exposed to the southwest of its convective mass as shear persists across the circulation. There's generally been a slight reduction in the objective and subjective estimates from the last advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. The storm is moving erratically northwestward at about 5 kt. Joyce is still forecast to turn northward on Monday due to a deep-layer trough over the north-central Atlantic, with only minor disagreements on the exact longitude of recurvature. The new forecast is a touch west of the last one, consistent with the consensus guidance. The intensity forecast seems straightforward with unabating shear and plentiful environmental dry air causing gradual weakening, with no significant change from the last NHC forecast. The remnant low might dissipate into a trough sooner than shown here, similar to the latest ECMWF forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 22.2N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 22.6N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 23.3N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 24.0N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z 25.0N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/0600Z 26.2N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 292045 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 The system we have been monitoring in the eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90) has continued to become better organized throughout the day. After an overnight deep convective burst, outer convective banding has become better defined, noted by the most recent TAFB subjective Dvorak fix of T2.0/30 kt. GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery also shows that the circulation, which was more elongated this morning, has become better defined on the western side, suggesting a well-defined closed vortex now exists. Based on the above data, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve this afternoon, with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The motion of the new depression currently appears to be westward at 270/8 kt. A prominent subtropical ridge to the north should continue to steer the system generally westward to west-northwestward over the next couple of days. After that time, this ridge becomes more eroded by a mid-latitude trough on its western side, resulting in the system gradually turning more poleward through the end of the forecast. In general the guidance is pretty tightly clustered for the first 48-60 h, with spread increasing a little more thereafter related to how quickly the system turns poleward. The initial NHC track forecast lies near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), which favors the ECMWF track a little further west than the GFS track. For at least the next 2-3 days, vertical wind shear is expected to remain low, mid-level moisture stays high, as the system remains over 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. Yet, the current large convective envelope of the system suggests it may take a day or so for an inner-core to become established. Thus, the initial rate of intensification is a bit slow, a little under the guidance for the next 24 hours, but then becomes faster and ends up near the IVCN consensus aid by 120 h. The initial NHC intensity forecast shows TD12 becoming a hurricane in 60 h and a major hurricane in 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 13.8N 32.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 13.9N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 14.2N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 14.5N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 15.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 15.9N 41.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 17.4N 42.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 20.0N 45.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 22.5N 47.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 20:45:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 21:34:48 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 20:43:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 21:28:53 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 292041 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 900 WTNT22 KNHC 292041 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 32.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 32.5W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 32.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.9N 33.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.2N 35.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 38.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 40.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 35NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.9N 41.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N 42.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 20.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 95NE 90SE 65SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 150NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 200SE 150SW 180NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 32.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN