Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300837 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Joyce's center is mostly exposed, with only a few cells of deep convection forming intermittently within the circulation. Joyce continues to experience strong southwesterly vertical wind shear due to a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The current intensity is held at 30 kt which is similar to the objective AIDT and DPRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS. This may be a generous estimate, however, given the current appearance of the system. The cyclone has not moved much with only a slightly south of westward drift noted, and the current motion estimate is 260/2 kt. It seems that the weakened system is now being steered primarily by the low-level flow. Therefore the official track forecast is slower than the previous predictions. This is similar to the motion implied by the latest ECMWF forecast fields which show a very weak system drifting generally northward for the next day or two. Given the lack of convection, the environment of dry air, and the expectation of persistent shear, Joyce should soon degenerate into a remnant low. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. The remnant cyclone should dissipate in 48-60 hours if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 22.1N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 22.8N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/0600Z 23.6N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z 24.7N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0600Z 25.8N 49.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 300837 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 34.1W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 34.1W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 33.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.1N 35.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.3N 37.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.9N 39.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 41.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.1N 42.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.4N 44.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.7N 46.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 110SW 170NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.4N 48.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 130SW 190NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 34.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

...JOYCE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Joyce was located near 22.1, -49.7 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 300837 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 ...JOYCE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 49.7W ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 49.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 300837 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 300836 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 49.7W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 49.7W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 49.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.6N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.7N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 25.8N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300835 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 Isaac continues to show signs of transitioning into an extratropical cyclone. The central convection has mostly dissipated, and the system is taking on more of a frontal appearance, with a zonally-oriented cloud and rain shield over the cyclone's northern semicircle. The current intensity is kept at 55 kt in accordance with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB, although this is somewhat uncertain since Isaac no longer appears to be a true tropical cyclone. The cyclone continues to move east-northeastward or at about 060/13 kt within a southern branch of the mid-latitude westerlies. Isaac is expected to turn toward the northeast during the next couple of days as it approaches a shortwave ridge just west of the British Isles. The official track forecast has been nudged only slightly eastward in the 2-3 day time frame, towards the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. Isaac is moving over cool waters and should complete its extratropical transition today. The global models suggest that the system will gradually weaken during the next few days as it becomes absorbed within a larger low over the North Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 44.7N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 45.8N 28.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/0600Z 47.4N 25.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1800Z 49.4N 23.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0600Z 51.3N 22.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 02/1800Z 53.0N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0600Z 54.5N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 300835 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 the center of Isaac was located near 44.7, -31.3 with movement ENE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 300835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 ...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.7N 31.3W ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM NNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 44.7 North, longitude 31.3 West. Isaac is moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northeast at a similar forward speed is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next several days. Isaac is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will affect the Azores over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300835 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.7N 31.3W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT.......200NE 130SE 150SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 420SE 360SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.7N 31.3W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 32.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 45.8N 28.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 47.4N 25.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 49.4N 23.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 51.3N 22.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...190NE 120SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 53.0N 21.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...160NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 54.5N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.7N 31.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300517
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores,
on Tropical Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic
Ocean, and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week
while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. This system
is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico
during the latter portion of this week. Interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and
a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter part of
this week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 300250 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 49.6W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 49.6W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 49.4W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 49.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.6N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.5N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.7N 49.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 49.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 02:41:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 03:23:04 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 02:41:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 03:34:52 GMT

Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300240 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 Isaac's expected transition to an extratropical cyclone continues. The tropical storm's cloud pattern has become asymmetrical, with cold clouds limited mostly to the north of the surface center, and it is beginning to take the form of an extratropical rain shield. Partial ASCAT data indicated maximum winds of 45-50 kt, supporting an intensity of 55 kt after accounting for undersampling. This also agrees with the most recent tropical Dvorak analysis from TAFB. The tropical storm should become fully extratropical later today. Models unanimously indicated that Isaac will continue to gradually spin down as a post-tropical low during the next several days. By 96 h, the center of Isaac is expected to become poorly-defined as it interacts with another large non-tropical low pressure system over the north Atlantic. Models are in reasonably good agreement for Isaac's track forecast. It should stay on a generally northeastward track for the next day or so. Beyond that time, there is some disagreement on exactly how soon Isaac's post-tropical remnants will turn north-northeastward, however all of the guidance shows the same generally idea that Isaac will turn toward a broad trough over the north Atlantic. No significant changes were made to the NHC forecast, which is based on the IVCN consensus for intensity and the TVCN consensus for the track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 44.4N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 45.1N 30.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/0000Z 46.7N 26.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1200Z 48.6N 24.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0000Z 50.7N 23.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 02/1200Z 52.4N 22.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0000Z 54.4N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 300239 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 The depression is gradually becoming better organized while continuing to produce a large area of deep convection. Recent scatterometer winds indicate the center of the system lies on the northern side of the convective cloud mass, with 25-30 kt winds noted within the eastern semicircle of the circulation and weaker winds on the west side. Based on the scatterometer data, the system remains a 30-kt depression for this advisory. The depression is moving westward at about 6 kt, to the south of an established subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. This feature should keep the tropical cyclone on a westward to west-northwestward heading during the next couple of days. Then, a northwestward turn is forecast later this week as a deep-layer trough over the north-central Atlantic weakens the ridge. This recurvature over open waters is supported by the latest track guidance and global model ensembles, and the updated NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with no notable changes. Intensification is expected due to very favorable environmental and oceanic conditions. The tropical cyclone will move over SSTs warmer than 29C during the next several days, within a moist and unstable environment with weak deep-layer shear. Once the system becomes more consolidated and establishes an inner core, its rate of strengthening is likely to increase. The latest NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN multi-model consensus aids, which brings the system to hurricane strength in 48 h and major hurricane intensity by day 5. In addition, the system is forecast to become a large hurricane, with an expanding wind and wave field as it gains latitude later in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 13.9N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 14.0N 34.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 14.2N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 14.5N 38.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 15.2N 40.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 16.4N 42.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 17.8N 43.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 22.5N 48.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...ISAAC FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 the center of Isaac was located near 44.4, -32.8 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 300239 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 ...ISAAC FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.4N 32.8W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM NNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 32.8 West. Isaac is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast at a similar forward speed is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next several days. Isaac is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Isaac and an upstream deep-layer trough will affect the Azores over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300239 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 32.8W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT.......200NE 130SE 140SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 540SE 420SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 32.8W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.1N 33.7W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 45.1N 30.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 46.7N 26.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 48.6N 24.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 50.7N 23.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...190NE 120SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 52.4N 22.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...160NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 54.4N 20.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...190NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.4N 32.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY