Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 290233 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

...ISAAC CONTINUES WEAKENING... As of 3:00 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 the center of Isaac was located near 42.1, -37.6 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290233 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 ...ISAAC CONTINUES WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.1N 37.6W ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaac was located near latitude 42.1 North, longitude 37.6 West. Isaac is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower east-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts, and continued weakening is expected over the next few days. Isaac is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone by Sunday night or early Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Isaac and a large wind fetch from a deep-layer trough will affect the Azores over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 290233 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...JOYCE EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ONLY A COUPLE MORE DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of Joyce was located near 20.9, -47.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 ...JOYCE EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ONLY A COUPLE MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 47.5W ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 47.5 West. Joyce is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through late Sunday. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Joyce is expected to become a depression by early Monday and then a remnant low by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290232 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 47.5W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 47.5W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 47.1W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.6N 48.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.4N 49.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.1N 49.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.8N 49.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.8N 48.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.2N 48.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 47.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290232 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 37.6W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 360SE 330SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 37.6W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 38.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 43.1N 36.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 44.2N 33.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 45.4N 30.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 47.1N 28.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 49.2N 27.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 70SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 51.1N 26.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 55.0N 24.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 58.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.1N 37.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282321
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaac, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Azores,
and on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic
Ocean.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression will likely form during the early or middle part
of next week while the system moves toward the west and then
northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week.
This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of
Mexico during the latter portion of next week, and interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2024 20:44:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2024 21:23:06 GMT

Issued at 900 PM GMT Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 282042 TCDAT5 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 900 PM GMT Sat Sep 28 2024 The expected weakening of Isaac appears to have started. The eye of the hurricane has been filling some during the past few hours, and the convective pattern is losing symmetry with dry air entraining into the southwestern side of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications are dropping, and accordingly, the initial intensity is nudged downward to 85 kt. The hurricane is already over cool 24 C waters and it is headed for progressively cooler waters during the next several days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions coupled with a sharp increase in vertical wind shear should cause steady weakening, and a transition into a post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours. Isaac is moving relatively quickly northeastward at 16 kt. The system is forecast to move a little slower to the east-northeast or northeast during the next couple of days within the mid-latitude flow. After that, a turn to the north is expected on the eastern side of an extratropical low. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and this one lies fairly close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 41.3N 38.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 42.5N 37.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 43.7N 35.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 44.8N 32.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 30/1800Z 46.1N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/0600Z 48.3N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1800Z 50.4N 27.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z 54.0N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1800Z 56.9N 23.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2024 20:42:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2024 21:29:02 GMT

...ISAAC STILL A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN... As of 9:00 PM GMT Sat Sep 28 the center of Isaac was located near 41.3, -38.4 with movement NE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 900 PM GMT Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 282041 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 900 PM GMT Sat Sep 28 2024 ...ISAAC STILL A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.3N 38.4W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaac was located near latitude 41.3 North, longitude 38.4 West. Isaac is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A slower east-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Isaac is forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Isaac and a large wind fetch from a deep-layer trough will affect the Azores over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 282041 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 38.4W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 130SE 130SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 360SE 330SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 38.4W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 39.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 42.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 130SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 43.7N 35.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 44.8N 32.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 46.1N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 48.3N 28.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 50.4N 27.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 54.0N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 56.9N 23.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.3N 38.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 282041 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 282041 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 282041 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 Joyce is still feeling the effects of the southerly deep-layer wind shear. Periodic bursts of convection have been forming just north of the center and quickly moving poleward, leaving the low-level circulation partially exposed all afternoon. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have been coming down, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. Dry mid-level humidities and moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear should induce gradual weakening over the next few days. Joyce is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday, a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday, and dissipated on Wednesday. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted downward slightly due to the lower initial intensity. The motion of the storm is now west-northwestward at 8 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion, with a slower forward speed is expected for the next day or so as Joyce is steered by a narrow subtropical ridge to the north. On Monday, Joyce should turn more north-northwestward to northward towards a weakens in the ridge caused by a deepening trough over the northern Atlantic. More of the model guidance is showing Joyce, or its remnants, being picked up by the trough and the track guidance envelope has shifted north and east. The latest NHC track forecast has shifted north and east of the previous prediction and lies on the western side of the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 20.3N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 20.9N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 21.7N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 22.3N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 22.9N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 23.5N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 24.3N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

...JOYCE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of Joyce was located near 20.3, -46.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 282040 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 ...JOYCE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 46.7W ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 46.7 West. Joyce is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. A slow turn toward the north-northwest and north is forecast Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Joyce is forecast to gradually weaken, and could degenerate into a remnant low by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci