Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 291435 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER MAHONEY/PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 291435 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 35.6W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 480SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 35.6W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.9N 36.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 44.0N 33.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 50SE 50SW 45NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 45.1N 30.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 46.6N 26.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 48.5N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...170NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 50.6N 24.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...200NE 70SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 52.8N 23.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...190NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 57.1N 18.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 61.2N 14.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...190NE 105SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.2N 35.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAHONEY/PAPIN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaac, located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores, and
on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
early or middle part of this week while the system initially moves
westward and then northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week
while the disturbance meanders towards the west-northwest. This
system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of
Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is
currently producing limited shower activity. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the
eastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Mahoney

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 08:41:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 09:22:54 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 08:40:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 09:28:47 GMT

Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290839 TCDAT5 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 900 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 The strong deep-layer shear and sub-24C sea surface temperatures continue to disrupt Isaac's cloud pattern, although recent images show a small burst of deep convection developing near the surface center. The outer convective curve bands are diminishing and have dissipated in the east semicircle of the cyclone. Based on the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates and a UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis, the initial intensity is set at 70 kt. Decreasing oceanic surface temperatures and a sharp increase in west-southwesterly vertical shear support further weakening as an extratropical cyclone through day 5. Isaac could lose what remains of its organized deep convection later tonight and become a post-tropical cyclone, as suggested by the global model simulated/IR forecast. In any event, extratropical transition is anticipated by Monday evening due to baroclinic forcing from a middle-latitude trough and the proximity of a frontal boundary. Isaac's initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/11 kt as it continues to be steered by the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. A turn toward the north-northeast by the middle part of this week is forecast in response to a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the cyclone from the west-northwest. Around the 72 hr period, Isaac should turn northward while moving around the eastern periphery of a larger baroclinic low-pressure system. An adjustment slightly to the right of the previous track advisory is again needed beyond the 24 hr period to conform with the latest consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 42.6N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 43.5N 34.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 44.5N 31.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 30/1800Z 46.0N 28.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/0600Z 47.8N 26.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/1800Z 49.9N 25.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0600Z 52.0N 24.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0600Z 56.4N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0600Z 60.3N 16.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 948 WTNT41 KNHC 290839 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 Strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, associated with an upper-level trough over the central subtropical Atlantic, continues to impact the tropical storm. Although deep convection has been intermittently redeveloping near the center, the persistent shear is displacing this shower and thunderstorm activity to the north and northeast of the mostly exposed circulation center. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, in agreement with the most recent scatterometer data. This is also supported by a blend of subjective and objective estimates. Center fixes indicate that the motion remains about the same, or at around 305/8 kt. An amplifying mid-level trough over the east-central Atlantic should cause Joyce to turn northward during the next day or so. If Joyce maintains some vertical depth in 2-3 days, it could accelerate north-northeastward ahead of the trough around that time. The official track forecast is the same as the previous NHC prediction and close to the model consensus. Over the next couple of days, Joyce is expected to remain in an environment of strong southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and an increasingly dry low- to mid-level air mass. Therefore, weakening is anticipated and the system will probably degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 2-3 days. This is consistent with the global model predictions. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 21.3N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 22.0N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 22.7N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 23.4N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 24.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 25.6N 48.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z 26.8N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

...JOYCE LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Joyce was located near 21.3, -48.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 ...JOYCE LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 48.1W ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 48.1 West. Joyce is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Joyce is expected to become a depression by early Monday and then a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 290838 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...ISAAC STILL A HURRICANE... ...LARGE AREA OF DANGEROUS HIGH SEAS SPREADING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FROM ISAAC'S CENTER... As of 9:00 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 the center of Isaac was located near 42.6, -36.5 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290838 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 900 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 ...ISAAC STILL A HURRICANE... ...LARGE AREA OF DANGEROUS HIGH SEAS SPREADING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FROM ISAAC'S CENTER... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.6N 36.5W ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM NW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaac was located near latitude 42.6 North, longitude 36.5 West. Isaac is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast to north on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts, and continued weakening is expected over the next few days. Isaac is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by early Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Isaac and a large wind fetch from a deep-layer trough will affect the Azores over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 290838 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290838 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 36.5W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 450SE 330SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 36.5W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 37.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 43.5N 34.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 44.5N 31.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 46.0N 28.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 47.8N 26.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 49.9N 25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...200NE 70SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 52.0N 24.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 56.4N 20.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 60.3N 16.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.6N 36.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290838 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 48.1W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 48.1W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 47.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 48.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.7N 49.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.4N 49.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.6N 48.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.8N 48.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 48.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290522
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaac, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Azores,
and on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic
Ocean.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression will likely form during the early or middle part
of this week while the system moves toward the west and then
northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this
week. This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf
of Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 02:35:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 03:23:01 GMT

Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290234 TCDAT5 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 Isaac continues to weaken tonight. Southwesterly shear and intrusions of drier mid-level air have eroded convection over the southern portion of the hurricane, and there is no longer a coherent eye feature in satellite images. A partial scatterometer pass shows a frontal zone in close proximity to the east of Isaac, signaling extratropical transition could begin soon. A blend of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak Current Intensity estimates with objective UW-CIMSS estimates supports lowering the intensity to 70 kt. As Isaac moves deeper into the mid-latitudes, it will cross even cooler waters and encounter increasing deep-layer shear. Thus, continued weakening is likely, and Isaac is expected to lose tropical characteristics soon and complete extratropical transition by Monday while becoming entangled with a nearby frontal system. The updated NHC forecast shows a faster rate of weakening in the near term. The wind radii of Isaac are likely to become increasingly asymmetric as the cyclone takes on frontal characteristics. Isaac is moving northeastward at about 13 kt. This general motion should continue for the next couple of days while Isaac remains embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow. The storm is forecast to turn more north-northeastward by midweek as an upper-level trough digs to the west of Isaac. There is more track spread in the guidance related to this interaction, and the extratropical portion of the NHC track forecast was adjusted slightly to the right of the previous prediction, following the latest multi-model consensus trends. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 42.1N 37.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 43.1N 36.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 44.2N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 30/1200Z 45.4N 30.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/0000Z 47.1N 28.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/1200Z 49.2N 27.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0000Z 51.1N 26.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0000Z 55.0N 24.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0000Z 58.0N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 02:34:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 03:28:53 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290233 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 Joyce's low-level center remains exposed on the southwest side of bursting deep convection due to moderate-to-strong south-southwesterly shear. The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates, and a recent ASCAT-C pass. Deep-layer shear is expected to continue affecting Joyce during the next couple of days, turning more out of the southwest or west, while the storm also moves through a relatively dry air mass. As a result, continued gradual weakening is anticipated, with Joyce potentially becoming a tropical depression by early Monday and a remnant low by early Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the HCCA corrected-consensus and the GFS/ECMWF global models. The remnant low is forecast to degenerate into a trough by Wednesday. Joyce has turned northwestward (305 deg) at 8 kt. An amplifying deep-layer trough over the central Atlantic is expected to cause Joyce to turn northward and slow down during the next couple of days. Depending on how much of Joyce is left in 2-3 days, it could accelerate toward the north-northeast ahead of the trough. The NHC track forecast is close to the GFEX consensus aid, and it's a little faster than the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 20.9N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 21.6N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 22.4N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.1N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 23.8N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 24.8N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z 26.2N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg