000
ABNT20 KNHC 302341
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Kirk, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form over the next
several days while it moves generally northwestward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Satellite wind data indicate that a broad area of low pressure has
formed in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred
miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and thunderstorms
continue to gradually increase in association with the system, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for further development. A
tropical depression is very likely to form during the next few days
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 20:42:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 21:29:00 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 302041 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Kirk is continuing to become better organized this afternoon on satellite imagery with a large burst of convection on the northern side of the center and an expanding outflow pattern aloft. All intensity estimates are rising, and the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, near the CIMSS-AiDT and DMINT values. The motion of Kirk is about the same as before, westward at about 10 kt. Very little change was made to the track forecast, with below-average model spread across the entire period due to well-defined steering flow from the subtropical high over the east-central Atlantic. Kirk should gradually move more west-northwestward by tomorrow and turn northwestward midweek, with a north-northwest turn likely by the end of the forecast period. Environmental conditions are forecast to be quite conducive for strengthening during the next several days, with warm waters, a moist mid-level environment and low shear in forecast. Rapid intensification remains a notable possibility if this system can close off its inner core, though the latest microwave data shows that any formative eyewall is still open. Later on, the exact peak intensity is a bit of a mystery, since sometimes these favorable conditions can result in most of the energy going toward producing a large, but not necessarily stronger hurricane. Regardless, all signs point to Kirk becoming quite a large and powerful hurricane, possibly category 4, later this week and remaining intense for days. The new forecast is similar to the previous one and is between the dynamical model consensus and the statistical-dynamical models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 13.6N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 13.9N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.5N 39.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 15.6N 41.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 16.8N 42.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 19.3N 45.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 21.8N 47.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 25.5N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 302040 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Visible satellite imagery this afternoon depicts increasing bursts of convection just east and especially just north of the generally exposed low-level center of Joyce. This precludes downgrading Joyce to a post-tropical remnant low with this advisory, though that could happen as early as tonight if the burst does not organize. The intensity of the depression was held at 30 kt for this advisory based on continuity. Joyce has moved very little over the past 12 to 24 hours, but the current motion estimate was held at an uncertain 360/2 kt. The official forecast track shows a slow northward motion until Joyce fully dissipates within 48 h, with little change from the previous track forecast. Continued deep-layer shear and dry air encompassing Joyce is forecast to inhibit additional convection and lead to the cyclone becoming a remnant low soon. The intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous one, showing Joyce becoming a remnant low in 12 h with dissipation in about 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 22.7N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1800Z 24.8N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 26.5N 48.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Konarik/Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 302040 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

...KIRK FORECAST TO BECOME A VERY LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Kirk was located near 13.6, -35.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

...JOYCE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Joyce was located near 22.7, -48.9 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 302040 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 ...JOYCE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 48.9W ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 48.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a slow northward motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce should become a remnant low soon. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Konarik/Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 302040 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KONARIK/BLAKE

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 302040 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 ...KIRK FORECAST TO BECOME A VERY LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 35.7W ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 35.7 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by Wednesday and that motion should continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday and could become a major hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 302039 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 48.9W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 48.9W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 48.9W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.4N 48.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.8N 48.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.5N 48.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 48.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KONARIK/BLAKE

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 302039 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 35.7W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 75SE 0SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 35.7W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 35.1W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.9N 37.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.5N 39.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.6N 41.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.8N 42.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.3N 45.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 21.8N 47.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.5N 49.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 140SW 180NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 35.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301749
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean, on
newly formed Tropical Storm Kirk, located over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean and has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Isaac.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions could become conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few
days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in association with a
tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Upper-level winds appear conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is very likely to form in a
few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Konarik/Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 14:57:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 15:34:52 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 301455 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Satellite images show an expanding area of central convection near the system with the low-level center on the western side of the deep convection. Microwave data from a few hours ago showed that an inner core is forming, with a partial eyewall noted on an AMSU pass. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt based on 40-45 kt winds from a pair of recent scatterometer passes. The motion of Kirk appears to be westward at about 10 kt, with the center apparently re-forming to the south within the deeper convection. The track forecast is relatively straightforward, with Kirk expected to follow the south and southwestern edge of the subtropical high over the east-central Atlantic, resulting in a path that gradually gains latitude and Kirk moving northward by this weekend. Other than a small westward adjustment based on the initial motion, the new forecast is very close to the old one. The environment around Kirk appears quite favorable for strengthening during the next several days, with warm waters, a moist environment and low shear in forecast. Given the formation of an inner core, the rate of strengthening has been raised in the short term, and rapid intensification is a distinct possibility. The biggest negative to this system is probably its large size, which could eventually promote eyewall replacement cycles and some SST cooling ahead of the system. Still, almost all of the guidance show Kirk becoming quite a large and powerful hurricane. The new NHC intensity forecast lies between the dynamical model consensus and the statistical-dynamical models, which are quite bullish on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 13.5N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 13.6N 36.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 14.0N 38.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 14.7N 40.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 15.8N 41.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 17.1N 43.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 18.4N 44.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 20.7N 46.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 23.5N 48.7W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 301454 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 Geostationary satellite data this morning indicates that Isaac has completed its transition to a Post-Tropical Extratropical Low and this will be the last NHC advisory. The remaining moderate-to-deep convection has sheared off to the northeast as stable stratocumulus clouds have fully infiltrated its low-level circulation from the west. The initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt blending the latest subjective and objective measurements. The post-tropical cyclone is still moving east-northeastward at about 065/15 kt. A subtle turn to the northeast is still expected over the next couple of days as the cyclone remains embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance has shifted a bit east of the prior forecast track, partially a reflection of the more eastward initial position, and the NHC track was nudged in that direction. Over the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to slowly weaken, lacking baroclinic support for much non-tropical development. The low should ultimately dissipate in the far North Atlantic to the west of Ireland before the end of the week. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France and the the UK Met Office. Links to each product are provided below: Meteo France: WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. UK Met Office: WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 44.8N 29.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 01/0000Z 46.0N 26.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1200Z 47.6N 23.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0000Z 49.3N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1200Z 50.6N 20.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 03/0000Z 52.0N 19.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/1200Z 54.0N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 14:54:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 15:23:00 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 301453 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 301453 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 ...KIRK STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 34.8W ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 34.8 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by Wednesday. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is likely to become a hurricane by tomorrow and could become a major hurricane by midweek. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 301453 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 34.8W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 34.8W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 34.3W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.6N 36.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.0N 38.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.7N 40.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.8N 41.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.1N 43.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 44.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N 46.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 120SW 180NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 48.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 130SW 190NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 34.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE