Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 071452 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 3(14) 1(15) 1(16) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 5(17) 2(19) X(19) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 2(16) 1(17) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 6(18) 1(19) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...RAFAEL TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Nov 7 the center of Rafael was located near 24.5, -85.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071451 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 ...RAFAEL TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 85.2W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 85.2 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, with this general motion continuing through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is anticipated during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 071451 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.2W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.2W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 84.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.7N 91.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.7N 91.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.5N 92.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 93.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 94.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 85.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 11:53:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 09:22:58 GMT

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING RAFAEL... As of 7:00 AM EST Thu Nov 7 the center of Rafael was located near 24.3, -84.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 700 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071152 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 700 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024 ...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING RAFAEL... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 84.9W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 84.9 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected later today, with this general motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is anticipated during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

311
ABNT20 KNHC 071136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Leeward Islands:
A trough of low pressure over the northern Leeward Islands continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 413 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 08:48:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 09:22:58 GMT

Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070847 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024 Satellite images show that Rafael remains fairly well-organized, with very cold convective cloud tops, although the Central Dense Overcast is a bit ragged looking. Convective banding features are limited and no eye is evident on the imagery at this time. Upper-level outflow is restricted over the western semicircle of the circulation, indicative of some westerly vertical wind shear over the tropical cyclone. An earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into the system measured 700 mb flight-level winds of 101 kt in the northeast quadrant which equates to a peak surface wind of about 90 kt. This intensity is also supported by a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Rafael later this morning. The hurricane continues to move away from western Cuba with an initial motion of about 305/10 kt. Rafael is located on the southwest side of mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula. Most of the global models guidance shows this ridge building westward, albeit weakly, over the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. As a result, Rafael should turn westward with some decrease in forward speed during the next 2-3 days. Then, the majority of the models show a ridge building to the west of the system. This steering evolution would cause Rafael to turn more southward, and this is shown by the dynamical model consensus track prediction. The new official forecast is adjusted to the left of the previous NHC track but is not as far south as the consensus. The motion is likely to be quite slow during the latter part of the forecast period. There remains significant uncertainty in the future track of Rafael over the Gulf of Mexico and additional adjustments to subsequent official track forecasts are likely. Southwesterly vertical wind shear should continue to affect Rafael, although the latest SHIPS model output does not show very strong shear over the system during the next several days. However, the numerical guidance does indicate very dry air around Rafael through the forecast period, which should induce weakening. If the system moves farther south over the Gulf than currently anticipated, it could encounter lower wind shear, and likely a more moist air mass. This could result in Rafael maintaining its intensity more than currently expected. For now, the official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and calls for weakening later in the period. This is similar to the latest model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the Dry Tortugas through this morning. 2. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to western Cuba today. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain. 3. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 24.2N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 24.4N 85.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 24.5N 87.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 24.6N 90.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 24.6N 92.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 24.2N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 23.5N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 805 FONT13 KNHC 070846 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 5(18) 1(19) 1(20) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 8(20) 3(23) 1(24) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 10(18) 4(22) 1(23) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 1(14) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 1(15) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 8(23) 1(24) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...RAFAEL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM EST Thu Nov 7 the center of Rafael was located near 24.2, -84.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024 888 WTNT33 KNHC 070845 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024 ...RAFAEL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 84.6W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Cuba. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 84.6 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected later today, with this general motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to continue to move away from western Cuba over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Rafael is then forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over the Dry Tortugas through this morning. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070845 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 84.6W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 84.6W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 84.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.4N 85.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.5N 87.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.6N 90.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.6N 92.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 24.2N 93.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 23.5N 93.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 84.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 05:46:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 03:23:02 GMT

Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070545 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 100 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024 ...CENTER OF RAFAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA... ...STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND RAINS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS CUBA OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 84.1W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and Mayabeque A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.1 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected later today, with this general motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to continue to move away from western Cuba over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Rafael is then forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible today, with little change in strength expected on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of western Cuba for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of the Lower and Middle Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas through this morning. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the coast of Cuba should subside overnight. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes remain possible overnight, mainly over parts of the Lower Florida Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070540
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Leeward Islands:
A trough of low pressure just northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the
couple of days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during
the next couple of days across the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern
Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 02:53:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 03:23:02 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070252 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 The eye of Rafael made landfall just after the last advisory was issued with an estimated intensity of 100 kt. Since then, the center has crossed western Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and a combination of land interaction and increasing southwesterly shear has caused some weakening. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 969 mb, and that the maximum winds have decreased to near 90 kt. In addition, radar data from Cuba and the Key West WSR-88D show that the eyewall structure has decayed, with the deep convection now confined to the northeastern quadrant. The initial motion is 315/11. Rafael is on the southwest side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula. This ridge is forecast to build westward in response to a developing deep-layer trough over the southwestern United States. This evolution should cause the cyclone to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico with some decrease in forward speed during the next 2-3 days. The track guidance remains divergent after 72 h. The GFS and Canadian models show the cyclone being caught in southerly flow between the deep-layer trough and a ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and turn the system northward. The ECMWF and UKMET forecast the ridge to be more over the western Gulf of Mexico between Rafael and the trough, and thus turn the cyclone southwestward. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs have tracks that support both of these possibilities. Given the spread and uncertainty, this low-confidence latter part of the forecast track shows a slow west-southwestward motion close the the consensus models. The global models suggest that the current shear should decrease in about 24 h, then increase again later in the forecast period. The forecast track keeps the system over relatively warm sea surface temperatures, especially if it turns southwestward. However, all of the guidance agrees that the airmass over the Gulf will be quite dry, and this should lead to gradual weakening even if the system stays over the warm water. There remains a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast, as the environment is much more hostile to the north of the forecast track and somewhat more favorable to the south of the forecast track. The intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance, but the guidance itself has a significant spread. Since the eyewall structure has decayed and the system is moving away from western Cuba, there will be no more hourly updates for Rafael. Three-hourly public advisories will continue as long as watches and warnings are in effect. Key Messages: 1. While Rafael is now moving away from western Cuba, a hurricane warning remains in effect for this region where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are still possible. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys tonight. 3. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to western Cuba into Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain. 4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 23.5N 83.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 25.0N 91.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 24.8N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 24.2N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven