Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100830 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 91.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.4N 91.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.2N 90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.4N 90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.3N 91.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.5N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 91.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100546
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Bahamas:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue near a trough of
low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the central
Bahamas. Some slight development of this system is possible before
it moves into unfavorable environmental conditions late today.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are
possible as it moves generally westward across the Bahamas through
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 02:34:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 03:22:53 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100232 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Rafael remains sheared this evening, with the remaining convection located to the northeast of the exposed low-level center. The circulation center itself is broad and appears to have multiple small vorticity center embedded in it. The initial intensity is decreased to 40 kt based on a blend of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. These winds are likely occurring in the area of convection northeast of the center and northwest of buoy 42001. The initial motion is now a slow 325/3. during the next 36 h or so, Rafael should make a small clockwise loop over the central Gulf of Mexico. After that time, the low-level flow should steer the cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward. One change in the track guidance is that that the GFS and HWRF models turn the system move westward after 60 h and wind up to the north of the rest of the guidance. Overall, the new forecast track is little changed from the previous track and lies near the consensus models. Rafael should continue to weaken due to a combination of southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF continue to indicate that the associated convection will dissipate between 24-36 h, with the circulation becoming elongated. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 36 h, with final dissipation by 120 h as suggested by most of the global models. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 25.7N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 26.0N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 26.0N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 25.3N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 24.0N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 22.8N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 21.4N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 100232 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...RAFAEL REMAINS SHEARED AND DISORGANIZED... As of 9:00 PM CST Sat Nov 9 the center of Rafael was located near 25.7, -91.7 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100231 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 ...RAFAEL REMAINS SHEARED AND DISORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 91.7W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 91.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected through early next week, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10 inches, across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to potentially significant flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100231 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 91.7W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 15SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 91.7W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 91.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.0N 91.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.3N 91.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.0N 91.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.8N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.4N 95.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 91.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 092317
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Bahamas:
A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred
miles east of the central Bahamas is associated with a trough of low
pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next day or so before it moves into unfavorable
environmental conditions on Sunday. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible as it moves
generally westward across the Bahamas through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 20:58:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 21:22:54 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092057 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 The center of Rafael has become exposed to the southwest of its associated convective mass in visible satellite images. The low-level circulation is becoming broader and less defined, and the cold overcast from the sheared convection has contracted and warmed this afternoon. Overall, the storm appears less organized as it contends with westerly shear and a dry mid-level environment. A partial ASCAT pass showed 35-40 kt winds in the northeast quadrant, but may not have sampled the area of strongest winds. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is consistent with a blend of the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The storm should continue weakening tonight due to the negative effects of increasing westerly shear and continued intrusions of dry mid-level air. In fact, the latest simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Rafael could become devoid of convection as early as Sunday. The official NHC forecast now shows post-tropical/remnant low status at 36 h, but further timing adjustments could be necessary if current trends continue. Rafael is beginning to slow down (300/4 kt), and the storm is likely to meander within weakening steering currents over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday. Then, the shallow vortex should become steered by the prevailing low-level flow on Monday and move toward the south and south-southwest through the middle of next week. Most of the guidance shows the remnant low spinning down and opening into a trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late in the 5-day forecast period, and the NHC forecast shows dissipation by 120 h. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 25.5N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 25.7N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 26.0N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 25.7N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 23.3N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 22.2N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z 21.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 092057 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 91.7W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 91.7W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.7N 91.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N 91.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.7N 91.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.3N 92.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.2N 93.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.0N 95.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 91.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 092057 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...SHEARED RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... As of 3:00 PM CST Sat Nov 9 the center of Rafael was located near 25.5, -91.7 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 092056 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 ...SHEARED RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 91.7W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 91.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The storm is expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected through early next week. Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10 inches, across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to potentially significant flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091720
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Bahamas:
A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred
miles east of the central Bahamas is associated with a trough of low
pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next day or so before it moves into unfavorable
environmental conditions on Sunday. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible as it moves
generally westward across the Bahamas through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 15:06:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 15:23:00 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091443 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Rafael is a sheared tropical storm. High-resolution AMSR2 passive microwave images received after the previous advisory showed the northeastward tilt of the vortex with height. Recent data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm the surface center lies on the southwestern edge of the deep convective mass over the central Gulf of Mexico. The strongest winds are likely confined to the northeast quadrant of the storm underneath this sheared convection. Dropsonde data indicate the central pressure has risen to around 999 mb, and the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on flight-level winds from the aircraft. The storm is likely to continue weakening due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Moderate westerly shear (15-20 kt) through Sunday and mid-level relative humidities falling below 40 percent should make it difficult for Rafael to become better organized and sustain deep convection going forward. Steady weakening is shown in the NHC intensity forecast through Sunday, and Rafael is now predicted to become a post-tropical remnant low in 48 h. Rafael is moving west-northwestward (290/5 kt), but the storm is expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico within weakening steering currents during the next 24-36 h. As Rafael becomes weak and shallow, the track guidance agrees on a turn toward the south and south-southwest within the low-level flow through the middle of next week. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast, which lies near the center of the guidance envelope in good agreement with the TVCA simple consensus. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of the Upper Texas Coast into Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 25.2N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 25.4N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 25.6N 92.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 25.7N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 25.1N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z 23.6N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 22.4N 93.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 18.5N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND RAFAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 9:00 AM CST Sat Nov 9 the center of Rafael was located near 25.2, -91.5 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 091443 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND RAFAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 91.5W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 91.5 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). The storm is expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday into Monday, then turn toward the south or south-southwest by Monday night. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast through early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10 inches, across portions of the Upper Texas Coast into Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to potentially significant flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart