...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS INTO MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 12:00 AM CST Fri Nov 8 the center of Rafael was located near 24.7, -87.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080558 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Special Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS INTO MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 87.5W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 87.5 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today. A weakening trend is forecast to begin late tonight and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080557 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.5W AT 08/0600Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.5W AT 08/0600Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 87.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080541
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Near Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure located near north of Puerto Rico continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 02:54:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 03:22:57 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080253 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Satellite imagery this evening shows that Rafael has become better organized, with the eye becoming more distinct and the cloud tops in the eyewall getting colder. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that this has not yet resulted in strengthening. The central pressure is near 965 mb, and a combination of 700-mb flight level winds and dropsonde data supports an initial intensity of 90 kt. Interestingly, this is at the lower end of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The initial motion is now 280/8 kt, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as Rafael is steered by a building ridge to its north. After that, the track guidance is still quite divergent. The Canadian, NAVGEM, and COAMPS-TC models call for the cyclone to turn northward or northeastward toward the northern Gulf coast as it gets affected by the large deep-layer trough over the southwestern United States. The GFS, which previously supported this scenario, is now calling for a slow anticyclonic loop over the central Gulf of Mexico, and this is also the forecast of the GFS and UKMET ensemble means. The ECMWF, deterministic UKMET, and the GFS-based regional hurricane models still show a turn toward the southwest and south as a narrow ridge builds between the hurricane and the aforementioned trough. To add to the uncertainty, the GFS and ECWMF ensembles still have numerous tracks supporting both the northward and southward turns. Based on the continued guidance spread and continuity from the previous forecast, the new track forecast continues to lean toward the southward scenario, although the new track is a little slower than the previous track to match the overall slower set of guidance. Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and the hurricane is crossing a warm eddy in the Loop Current. This combination should at least maintain the current intensity for the next 12-24 h, and slight strengthening cannot be ruled out. After that, westerly shear is forecast to increase, and while the shear is not likely to be strong it should help advect very dry air into the circulation. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken, and the intensity forecast has been adjusted to show an increased weakening rate between 24-60 h to better fit the trend of the guidance. The intensity forecast generally follows the faster weakening rate of the global and GFS-based regional hurricane models, as the statistical-dynamical models have a slower rate of weakening. It should be noted that if Rafael turns northward, it would move over cooler sea surface temperatures and encounter stronger shear, which would likely cause a faster weakening than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 24.6N 87.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 624 FONT13 KNHC 080253 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) HOUMA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...RAFAEL GETS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Thu Nov 7 the center of Rafael was located near 24.6, -87.1 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080252 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 ...RAFAEL GETS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 87.1W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 87.1 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some small intensity fluctuations are possible tonight and Friday. Weakening is forecast to begin on Friday night and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080252 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 87.1W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 87.1W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 87.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 072332
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Virgin Islands:
A trough of low pressure located near and north of the Virgin
Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves westward near the
Greater Antilles. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas
through Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 20:38:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 21:22:59 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 072035 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Rafael has made a resurgence this afternoon. The hurricane has apparently mixed out some of the dry air from earlier today and become better organized, with a ragged eye that has emerged in satellite imagery and a more cohesive ring of deep convection surrounding its center. On the last pass through the eye earlier this afternoon, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the central pressure had fallen several millibars from earlier passes. They also reported a few observations of 700-mb flight-level winds in excess of 100 kt, with a peak of 107 kt. These data support raising the initial intensity to 90 kt. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Rafael this evening. The improved structure of the hurricane could make it more resilient to the negative effects of dry air and westerly shear in the near term, so some additional strengthening cannot be ruled out tonight. However, the overall model trends favor weakening through much of the 5-day forecast period as Rafael moves into a drier mid-level environment and encounters stronger shear by this weekend. The updated NHC intensity prediction has been nudged upward through 24 h and downward at later forecast times, but still lies near or above the simple- and corrected-consensus aids. It is possible that the hostile environmental conditions could cause Rafael to weaken even faster and lose organized convection by the end of the 5-day period. Rafael is moving west-northwestward (295/8 kt) around a mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula. As this ridge builds to its north, the hurricane is expected to move generally westward through Saturday. There is still quite a bit of track forecast uncertainty thereafter, with larger than normal spread among the various track models. Many of the models (including the ECMWF, UKMET, and regional hurricane models) slow Rafael down and turn it southwestward in response to ridging over the western Gulf and northern Mexico. However, the GFS and Canadian models show a slow northward turn between an upper trough over the central U.S. and a ridge to the east. No major changes were made to the NHC track forecast this cycle, which continues to favor the former scenario. However, future larger adjustments to the track forecast could be required. If model solutions like the GFS were to verify, Rafael would encounter a stronger shear environment and likely weaken faster than shown in the official NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 24.7N 86.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 24.7N 89.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 25.2N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 25.1N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 23.7N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 22.0N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 072034 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) HOUMA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 7(17) 1(18) 1(19) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...RAFAEL SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Nov 7 the center of Rafael was located near 24.7, -86.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 072033 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.2W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.2W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.7N 89.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.2N 92.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.1N 92.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 23.7N 93.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.0N 94.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 86.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 072033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 ...RAFAEL SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 86.2W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 86.2 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight, with this general motion at a slightly slower forward speed continuing through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some small intensity fluctuations are possible tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Friday and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071734
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Leeward Islands:
A trough of low pressure over the northern Leeward Islands continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 14:55:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 15:23:07 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071453 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Rafael this morning. Tail Doppler Radar data and reports from the flight crews, in addition to earlier passive microwave imagery, indicate the eyewall has opened up to the south and southwest of the center. This is likely due to the negative influences of some drier mid-level air and westerly shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 92 kt, and dropsonde data indicate the central pressure has risen slightly to around 971 mb. Given the latest flight-level wind data and some erosion of the eyewall convection, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt. The hurricane is expected to move into an even drier airmass over the next few days, with at least weak to moderate westerly shear over the system. So despite 27-28 deg C SSTs over the southern Gulf of Mexico, some additional weakening is forecast through this weekend into early next week. Rafael should remain a hurricane for the next couple of days, but some downward adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast to bring it closer to the latest multi-model consensus aids. Even still, the NHC forecast lies on the higher side of the guidance envelope. Recent aircraft fixes indicate Rafael is beginning a leftward turn, and the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 295/8 kt. The hurricane should move westward over the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge builds to its north. Then, there is still some spread in the track guidance with a bifurcation in model solutions. Most of the models (including the ECMWF, UKMET, and regional hurricane models) show Rafael turning southwestward in response to a narrow ridge building to its northwest. But, the GFS and Canadian models still suggest a northward turn ahead of a slightly deeper upper trough over the central United States. The NHC prediction continues to favor the southern solutions and is similar to the previous forecast, in agreement with the majority of track models and consensus aids. There remains above average uncertainty in the future track of Rafael, and additional adjustments to subsequent official track forecasts are likely. If the northern model solutions were to verify, Rafael would likely encounter even more hostile environmental conditions and weaken faster than shown in the official NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to western Cuba today. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 24.5N 85.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 24.7N 91.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 24.7N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 24.5N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 24.0N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 22.0N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart