5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 02:36:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 03:22:53 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 893 WTNT43 KNHC 090234 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Rafael has become significantly less organized since the last advisory due to the effects of shear and dry air entrainment. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated the cyclone a few hours ago reported maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 69 kt in the northwest quadrant and that the central pressure had risen to the 985-990 mb range. The aircraft also reported that the eyewall structure had disintegrated and that the 700-mb center was located northeast of the surface center. Microwave satellite imagery also suggests that the low-level center is now southwest of the main convective mass. Based on these data and the likely continued weakening since the aircraft mission, Rafael is downgraded to a tropical storm with the initial intensity of 60 kt. This value is a little below the latest CIMSS Satellite Consensus estimate. Even though Rafael remains over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, increasing westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should cause steady to rapid weakening for at least the next couple of days. While the shear may decrease some after 48 h, the airmass is expected to be too dry for the system to make a comeback. The new intensity guidance follows the trend of the global models and the regional hurricane models in showing Rafael weakening to a depression by 60 h and degenerating to a remnant low pressure area soon after that. The initial motion is now west-northwest or 285/4 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should steer it lowly west-northwestward for the next 36 h or so. After that, the track guidance has come into better, although not unanimous, agreement that the cyclone will make a small loop or hairpin turn and wind up moving south-southwestward as a ridge builds to its west. The new forecast follows the general direction of the somewhat-spread consensus models and lies a little to the east of the previous forecast after 36 h. Based on the current track and intensity forecasts, Rafael is expected to have little direct impact on land areas. However, swells generated by the storm should cause high surf along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 24.8N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 25.0N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 25.3N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 25.6N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 25.1N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 24.4N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 23.4N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z 22.0N 92.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z 20.5N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

...RAFAEL RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 9:00 PM CST Fri Nov 8 the center of Rafael was located near 24.8, -89.9 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 792 WTNT33 KNHC 090234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 89.9W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 89.9 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow west-northwestward motion is expected through Saturday. After that, Rafael is likely to move slowly south-southwestward toward the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid weakening is expected during the next few days. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42001 located north of the center reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (83 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 772 FONT13 KNHC 090234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 839 WTNT23 KNHC 090233 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 89.9W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 180SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 89.9W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 89.7W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 90.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.3N 91.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.6N 91.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.1N 91.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.4N 91.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.4N 92.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 92.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 20.5N 94.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 89.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 082329
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near Greater Antilles:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure that extends from near Hispaniola
northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic. Development, if any,
of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of
days while it moves westward to west-northwestward near the Greater
Antilles, Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and
eastern Cuba. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Turks
and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba
through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 20:34:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 21:22:55 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 082033 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Satellite images suggest that Rafael is gradually losing strength and organization. The convective pattern has become ragged, and microwave images suggest that westerly vertical wind shear and dry air are beginning to take a toll on the system's structure. A blend of the latest Dvorak estimates supports lowering the initial intensity to 85 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Rafael this evening, and that data will provide a better estimate of the hurricane's intensity. ASCAT data and earlier reconnaissance information indicate that Rafael is a very compact hurricane, with tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds estimated to extend only 80 n mi and 25 n mi from the center, respectively. Even though Rafael remains over the warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico, increasing westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should cause steady to rapid weakening during the next few days. Rafael is expected to fall below hurricane strength on Saturday, and become a remnant low by day 3. This prediction is in line with the majority of the models. Rafael is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a ridge that extends across the western Atlantic and the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight as the ridge weakens. A trough approaching from the west should leave Rafael in very weak steering currents over the weekend and early next week, causing the system to meander over the central Gulf during that time. Once the system becomes weak and shallow, a turn to the south-southwest is expected in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one. Although there are differences in the models, they all agree that Rafael will remain over water and not directly impact land. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 24.6N 89.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 24.9N 90.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 25.5N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 25.6N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 24.9N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 23.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 22.8N 92.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 21.6N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 082032 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...RAFAEL PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Fri Nov 8 the center of Rafael was located near 24.6, -89.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 082032 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 89.7W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 89.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight. After that, Rafael is likely to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 082032 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 89.7W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 90SE 150SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 89.7W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 89.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.9N 90.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 91.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.6N 92.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 92.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.8N 92.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.8N 92.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.6N 93.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 89.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081726
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near Greater Antilles:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure that extends from near Hispaniola
northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic. Development, if any,
of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of
days while it moves westward to west-northwestward near the Greater
Antilles, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 14:34:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 15:22:59 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 081433 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Rafael has lost a little strength, but remains a powerful hurricane. Although the eye that was apparent in satellite images overnight has filled, the system still has a well organized central dense overcast pattern with compact banding features surrounding it. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Rafael this morning and based on their data, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 961 mb based on dropsonde information. Rafael is a very compact hurricane, with tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds estimated to extend only 80 n mi and 25 n mi from the center, respectively. Although the waters are still relatively warm over the Gulf of Mexico, a combination of increasing westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should promote steady to rapid weakening during the next few days. The intensity models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is a touch lower than the previous one. Rafael is forecast to fall below hurricane strength on Saturday and degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. Rafael is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a ridge that extends across the western Atlantic and the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so as the ridge weakens. A trough approaching from the west should leave Rafael in very weak steering currents over the weekend and early next week, causing the system to meander over the central Gulf during that time. Once the system becomes weak and shallow, a turn to the south-southwest is expected in the low-level flow. Despite the complex steering, the models are in fair agreement and this forecast is generally similar to the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 24.5N 88.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 24.7N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 25.5N 91.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 25.8N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 25.9N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 25.5N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 23.7N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 22.6N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...RAFAEL REMAINS A POWERFUL COMPACT HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Fri Nov 8 the center of Rafael was located near 24.5, -88.8 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 081432 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL REMAINS A POWERFUL COMPACT HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 88.8W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 88.8 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so. After that, Rafael is likely to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 081432 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 081432 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.8W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 90SE 120SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.8W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.7N 89.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.5N 91.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.8N 91.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.9N 91.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.5N 91.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.7N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 22.6N 92.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 88.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI