5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 17:55:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 15:23:35 GMT

...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... As of 1:00 PM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 22.0, -82.3 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 100 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 061755 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 100 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...RAFAEL BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 82.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 82.3 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected make landfall in western Cuba this afternoon. Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Satellite data and preliminary reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely before Rafael makes landfall in Cuba this afternoon. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). An automated weather station at Cayo Largo Del Sur, Cuba, reported sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to 83 mph (134 km/h) within the past few hours. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth through the evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and tonight. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061751
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located near western Cuba.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles east-northeast of
the Leeward Islands. This system is expected to move generally
westward during the next few days, and an area of low pressure could
form near the northern Leeward Islands tonight or Thursday.
Afterward, some gradual development of this system is possible
toward the end of the week and into the weekend while it moves near
or to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and
approaches the Southeast Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 14:55:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 15:23:35 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 061453 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 The satellite presentation of Rafael has continued to improve this morning with the eye becoming apparent in geostationary imagery. Radar data from the Cayman Islands and reports from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated Rafael has a double eyewall structure. Both the NOAA and Air Force planes measured peak flight-level winds of 94 kt earlier this morning. Dropsonde data indicated that the pressure had fallen to around 963 mb on the last pass of the NOAA P-3 aircraft around 1245 UTC. Given the continued improvement in the satellite structure and earlier tail-Doppler radar data, the initial wind speed has been set at 95 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm by early this afternoon. Rafael will remain in a favorable environment for strengthening while it approaches western Cuba. The hurricane will be traversing warm waters and remain in light to moderate vertical wind shear conditions. The apparent beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle could ease the recent rate of rapid intensification, but it appears very likely that Rafael will become a major hurricane before it makes landfall in western Cuba later today. Some weakening is forecast when the storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and significantly drier air are likely to result in weakening, however a more southerly track over the Gulf could result in less hostile conditions, and there is larger-than-normal uncertainty regarding Rafael's intensity later in the forecast period. The hurricane is moving northwestward or 320/11 kt. Rafael should continue to move around the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. The ridge is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days which is expected to cause Rafael to turn more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is in good agreement for the first 48 to 60 h, but there is increasing spread after that time. Much of the guidance now suggests that the ridge will remain to the north of the system through much of the forecast period. This has resulted in a southward shift in the model envelope and the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted in that direction after 72 hours. The new forecast lies north of the latest consensus aids and additional southward adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to become a major hurricane before it reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight. 3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba. 4. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the western Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 21.4N 81.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 22.8N 83.2W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/1200Z 23.9N 84.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 24.3N 86.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 24.4N 88.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 25.7N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 25.7N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 061452 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 9 5(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 1(18) NAPLES FL 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 12(22) 2(24) 2(26) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 6(27) 2(29) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 2(22) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) X(11) 1(12) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 9(11) 6(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) HAVANA 50 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) HAVANA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 50 70 X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ISLE OF PINES 64 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CIENFUEGOS 34 5 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... As of 10:00 AM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 21.4, -81.9 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 061452 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 81.9W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 81.9 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move near or just east of the Isle of Youth during the next few hours, and make landfall in western Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Rafael is forecast to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall in Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba today. RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 061452 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 81.9W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 81.9W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 81.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.8N 83.2W...OVER CUBA MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.9N 84.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.3N 86.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.4N 88.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.7N 92.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 25.7N 92.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 81.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 12:00:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 09:23:06 GMT

...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... As of 7:00 AM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 21.0, -81.6 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 700 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 061159 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 700 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 81.6W ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Grand Cayman. The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 81.6 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or two, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move near or over the Isle of Youth later this morning or early this afternoon, and make landfall in western Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes landfall in Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions, possibly in gusts, are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands for the next couple of hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba today. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals between 4 to 7 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across Jamaica, heavy rain bands on the backside of Rafael will bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands, and could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the northwest Caribbean Sea.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles east-northeast of
the Leeward Islands. This system is expected to move generally
westward during the next few days, and an area of low pressure could
form near the northern Leeward Islands tonight or Thursday.
Afterward, some gradual development of this system is possible
toward the end of the week and into the early part of the weekend
while it moves near or to the north of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico, and approaches the Southeast Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 08:53:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 09:23:06 GMT

Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060851 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 Rafael continues to intensify as it approaches western Cuba. Deep convection within the hurricane's Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is very intense, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. There are also strong convective banding features surrounding the CDO. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a closed eyewall at times, with the central pressure falling at a rate of around 2 mb per hour. Based on the highest flight-level winds reported from the aircraft so far, the current intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory. Rafael's inner core is relatively small in size, with hurricane-force winds extending about 25 n mi from its 10-15 n mi wide eye. The hurricane continues its northwestward trek, and the initial motion is a slightly faster 315/12 kt. For the next day or two, Rafael should continue to move along the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night. After 48 hours the track guidance becomes very divergent, with a number of model solutions taking the system toward the southwest Gulf in 3-4 days. It appears that, during the latter part of the forecast period, a mid-level ridge could build to the north of the tropical cyclone. This could force Rafael to turn to the west or south of west in 4 to 5 days. In order to maintain continuity from the previous NHC predictions, the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous one, but not as far as dictated by the latest model consensus. If future model runs continue to show this trend, however, additional leftward adjustment to the NHC track may be required. Rafael is expected remain in an environment of high oceanic heat content, low vertical wind shear and a very moist low- to mid-tropospheric air mass until the center reaches western Cuba. Therefore, the cyclone will probably be nearing major hurricane status at landfall in Cuba. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, the environment should become increasingly less conducive for Rafael to maintain its intensity. Increasing southwesterly shear, significantly drier air, and gradually decreasing SSTs are likely to result in weakening. The official forecast remains near the high end of the model guidance in the 3- to 5-day forecast period. This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is expected to strengthen to near major hurricane intensity before reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive waves are also expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning today and tonight. 3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 20.6N 81.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 060851 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 34 2 13(15) 3(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NAPLES FL 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 17(27) 3(30) 1(31) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 8(28) 1(29) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) 4(23) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 8( 9) 7(16) 3(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 64 24(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) HAVANA 50 7 22(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 1(30) X(30) HAVANA 64 3 14(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLE OF PINES 34 95 X(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ISLE OF PINES 50 62 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ISLE OF PINES 64 22 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CIENFUEGOS 34 17 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... As of 4:00 AM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 20.6, -81.3 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060850 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 81.3W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 81.3 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or two, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move over western Cuba later today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes landfall in Cuba later today. Rafael could briefly weaken over Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions, possibly in gusts, are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands for the next couple of hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba today. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals between 4 to 7 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across Jamaica, heavy rain bands on the backside of Rafael will bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands tonight, and could raise water levels by as much as 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060850 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 81.3W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 81.3W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 80.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 81.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS