Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092357 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 ...FRANCINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 96.0W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for extreme southern Texas from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from La Pesca northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana * Vermilion Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City to Grand Isle * High Island to Sabine Pass * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield * La Pesca to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 96.0 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued north-northwest motion is expected through this evening followed by a turn to the northeast with some acceleration beginning Tuesday. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through Tuesday, and nearing the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico and south Texas through Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch area Tuesday and Tuesday night, and are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of northeast Mexico northward over the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, across southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen

000
ABNT20 KNHC 092354
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Francine, located roughly 100 miles offshore of northeastern
Mexico.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical
Atlantic is producing limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight
development during the next couple of days, but a tropical
depression could still form during that time while the system
meanders over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to merge in a couple of days
with a strong tropical wave currently located just offshore of the
western coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear favorable
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
will likely form during the latter part of this week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 21:45:45 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 21:29:29 GMT

...FRANCINE QUICKLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 the center of Francine was located near 24.0, -96.0 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 792 WTNT31 KNHC 092052 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 ...FRANCINE QUICKLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 96.0W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from east of High Island, Texas, eastward to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Louisiana Coast from Sabine Pass to Morgan City A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Louisiana Coast east of Morgan City to Grand Isle and from High Island Texas to Sabine Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Texas Coast from Port Mansfield northward to High Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana * Vermilion Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City to Grand Isle * High Island to Sabine Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 96.0 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued north-northwest motion is expected through this evening followed by a turn to the northeast with some acceleration beginning Tuesday. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through Tuesday, and nearing the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Francine is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico tonight and could spread along the Texas coast on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of northeast Mexico northward over the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, across southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and are expected to spread across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 09 2024 539 FONT11 KNHC 092052 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 2100 UTC MON SEP 09 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) X(23) X(23) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 16(37) X(37) X(37) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 12(46) X(46) X(46) HOUMA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) HOUMA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 36(58) 3(61) X(61) X(61) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 23(54) X(54) X(54) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 39(44) 13(57) X(57) X(57) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 22(40) X(40) X(40) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 44(50) 16(66) X(66) 1(67) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) X(23) X(23) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 47(53) 14(67) 1(68) X(68) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) X(26) X(26) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 6 7(13) 47(60) 30(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 39(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 13(37) X(37) X(37) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 45(53) 9(62) X(62) X(62) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMERON LA 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) 51(77) 5(82) X(82) X(82) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) 5(49) X(49) X(49) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 25(34) 3(37) X(37) 1(38) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 41(54) 1(55) X(55) 1(56) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 4 7(11) 36(47) 23(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 12(12) 19(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) HOUSTON TX 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 15(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 1 4( 5) 34(39) 15(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 10 22(32) 53(85) 7(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 4( 4) 52(56) 11(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 30(30) 11(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 4( 4) 20(24) 35(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 7 13(20) 35(55) 7(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 8 18(26) 30(56) 3(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 2 14(16) 18(34) 1(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 2 14(16) 10(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 270N 960W 34 32 43(75) 19(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GFMX 270N 960W 50 1 30(31) 34(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 8( 8) 27(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MCALLEN TX 34 25 14(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) HARLINGEN TX 34 50 21(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 76 16(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 86 13(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 250N 960W 50 70 20(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) GFMX 250N 960W 64 12 32(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) LA PESCA MX 34 27 4(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) TAMPICO MX 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TUXPAN MX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 092053 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 Since the prior advisory, Francine's structure has continued to improve. Curved bands are becoming more obvious on geostationary satellite imagery, even if the coldest cloud tops have warmed from earlier today. The last Air Force reconnaissance mission into Francine on its final center fix found a formative inner-core with a partial eyewall, 850 mb flight level winds up to 58 kt, and pressure down to 996 mb, a significant drop from this morning. These data were the basis for bringing the 18 UTC intensity up to 50 kt. Since then, a mid-level eye feature on the Brownsville radar has become apparent. Assuming some additional deepening, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory. With the center becoming better established, the motion is a bit easier to estimate, currently at 340/6 kt. While the system has reformed a bit west of the previous track, the overall thinking has not changed much, as Francine will be moving around the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Cuba, and an upper-level trough propagating into Texas. This trough will ultimately shift the track of a more vertically deep Francine northeastward tomorrow with gradual acceleration until the storm makes landfall sometime between 48 to 60 h. The track guidance this cycle has shifted westward, likely due to the more westward initial position, and is also a little faster. The latest NHC track forecast follows suit, showing a shift to the west and a faster motion, blending the prior forecast towards the reliable consensus aids TCVN and HCCA. With the forming inner-core earlier observed by recon and still seen on radar currently, the tropical storm appears poised to intensify more significantly in the short term. Given the low vertical wind shear, ample moisture, and very warm sea-surface temperatures, a faster rate of intensification is shown over the next 36 h, and Francine is now forecast to become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow morning, and a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday. In the final 12-18 h before landfall, shear is expected to increase markedly, which will likely halt the intensification, though Francine is expected to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after the system moves inland. The NHC intensity forecast is on the upper-end of the overall intensity guidance, but still is lower than some of the hurricane-regional model guidance (HAFS-B, HMON). Given the changes to the forecast, Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued for a significant portion of the Louisiana coastline. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Francine is expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana on Wednesday, and there is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a Storm Surge Warning is now in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico, the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.0N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 24.8N 96.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 25.9N 95.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 27.4N 94.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 29.4N 92.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 31.8N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/1800Z 34.2N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/1800Z 36.9N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/1800Z 38.2N 89.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Papin

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 20:53:19 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 09 2024 993 WTNT21 KNHC 092051 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 2100 UTC MON SEP 09 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 96.0W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 96.0W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 95.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.8N 96.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.9N 95.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.4N 94.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.4N 92.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.8N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.2N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 36.9N 90.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 38.2N 89.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 96.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091750
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Francine, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive
for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form while the system meanders over the central tropical
Atlantic. By the middle part of the week, the system is forecast
to move west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to merge in a couple of days
with a strong tropical wave currently near the coast of western
Africa. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely
form during the middle to latter part of this week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Francine are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Francine are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 17:46:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 15:22:53 GMT

...FRANCINE STRONGER AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD BE UNDERWAY... As of 1:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 the center of Francine was located near 23.7, -95.8 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 091746 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 ...FRANCINE STRONGER AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD BE UNDERWAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 95.8W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield * East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana * East of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 95.8 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow north-northwestward motion is expected for the remainder of the day, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and approaching the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday. Recent Air Force reconnaissance data indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional intensification is expected over the next day with more significant intensification forecast on Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches) based on dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning Tuesday, and for the extreme northern Texas and portions of the Louisiana coast on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the southern Texas coast, the far upper Texas coast and across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 16:06:02 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 15:41:33 GMT

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 the center of Francine was located near 23.0, -94.9 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 091534 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 4...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 Corrected direction relative to Grand Isle in Watch and Warning Summary section. ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from east of High Island, Texas, eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, including Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle in Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of High Island, Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield * East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana * East of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow north-northwestward motion is expected for the remainder of the day, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Francine is expected to be just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual intensification is expected over the next day with more significant intensification on Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning Tuesday, and for the extreme northern Texas and portions of the Louisiana coast on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the southern Texas coast, the far upper Texas coast and across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 091459 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 The structure of the system on satellite imagery has improved this morning, with a large circular region of cold convection between -70 to -85 near the estimated center. An Air-Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is sampling the system this morning and earlier found a cyclonic wind shift from southeasterly to northwesterly flow near the center of the mass of deep convection. This data provides enough evidence that a well-defined circulation now exists, and thus PTC Six has become Tropical Storm Francine with sustained winds of 45 kt this advisory. The estimated motion is still tricky given the center only recently formed but is estimated still off to the north-northwest at 340/4 kt. The system is expected to gradually turn northward and then north-northeastward as it moves between a mid-level ridge centered over Cuba and a broad mid- to upper-level trough located to its northwest over Texas. The guidance this cycle has shifted a little eastward and faster, and the NHC track forecast was once again nudged in that direction. The current track splits the difference between HCCA and TVCN and still shows Francine moving ashore of Louisiana sometime on Wednesday evening. There remains a decent amount of track uncertainty with the GEFS and EPS ensembles showing along-track spread implying some speed differences near landfall. While the system is now a tropical storm, the inner core wind field per reconnaissance observations is still broad and in the organizing stage, and initial intensification will be gradual. However, after an inner-core becomes established, and assuming the cyclone's vertical structure becomes aligned, a period of more significant intensification is possible while storm is embedded in a low shear, high mid-level moisture, and over very warm 30-31 C sea-surface temperatures. The SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices are pretty elevated, and a period of RI could also occur between 24-48 h. For now, the NHC intensity forecast will not explicitly forecast RI, but is higher than the previous cycle and shows a 75 kt peak in 48 h, in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. After that period, southwesterly vertical wind shear quickly increases from 10 kt to more than 30 kt and the intensity could plateau as it approaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf coastline, though the system is forecast to remain a hurricane at landfall. The NHC intensity forecast continues to be in good agreement with the consensus aids, but is a bit under the HAFS-A/B and COAMPS-TC models. Given the latest forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Louisiana coastline from Cameron to Grand Isle, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, TX eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama Border. With this advisory, the experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm watches in the U.S. will be available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. The experimental cone graphic can be found from a link on the page with the operational cone graphic once it is available on hurricanes.gov. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Francine is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Wednesday or Wednesday night and there is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge inundation for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the watch area should follow advice given by local officials. 2. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds in portions of southern Louisiana beginning Wednesday, where a Hurricane Watch is now in effect. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast of far northeast Mexico, portions of the southernmost Texas coast, the Upper Texas Coast, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 23.0N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 24.0N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 24.9N 95.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 26.3N 95.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 28.0N 93.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 29.7N 92.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...ON THE COAST 72H 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/1200Z 36.2N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/1200Z 37.5N 88.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Papin

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 14:56:42 GMT