000
ABNT20 KNHC 071752
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure has formed over the Bay of Campeche and is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system is
forecast to drift slowly northward for a couple of days while it
interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the system moves generally northward near or along the Mexican and
Texas Gulf coastline. Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico
coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual
development of this system is possible while the system meanders
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form
early next week. The system is then forecast to move
west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the central tropical
Atlantic during the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure are located several hundred miles east-southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow development of this system is
possible as it interacts with a tropical wave expected to move off
the African continent early next week and moves west-northwestward
at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is forecast to
develop while the wave interacts with a frontal boundary during
the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
slowly northwestward to northward over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic is producing a broad area of shower and
thunderstorm activity. A more well-defined area of low pressure may
form within this region during the next few days. Some slow
development of this system is possible while the disturbance
meanders through the early part of next week, then begins to move
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070522
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Guatemala, southeastern
Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The wave is expected to move over the Bay of Campeche later today,
and an area of low pressure is forecast to develop while interacting
with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic is producing a broad area of shower and
thunderstorm activity. A more well-defined area of low pressure may
form within this region during the next few days. Some slow
development of this system is possible while the disturbance
meanders through the early part of next week, then begins to move
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

033
ABNT20 KNHC 062316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The
wave is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where
it will begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical
depression could form during the early or middle part of next week
while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic is producing broad shower and thunderstorm
activity. A more concentrated area of low pressure may form within
this region during the next couple of days. Any development of this
system should be slow to occur while the disturbance meanders
through the early part of next week and then begins to move
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061746
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system and
weak frontal boundary over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico remain
disorganized. The low is expected to be absorbed by the front and
lose definition by tonight or on Saturday, and therefore tropical
cyclone development is not expected. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is expected to continue and possibly cause flash
flooding across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next
day or so. Additional information on this system can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
An intensifying low pressure system located several hundred miles
east of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast continues to take on a
non-tropical structure and is now producing winds to storm force.
Subtropical development of this system is not expected while it
moves north-northeastward at 15 to 20 mph offshore the northeastern
United States toward Atlantic Canada. Additional information on
this system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday,
where it could then begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the disturbance
meanders through the early part of next week and then begins to
move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during
the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system and
weak frontal boundary over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico remain
disorganized. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable
for significant development of this system while it meanders over
the northwestern Gulf and eventually merges with another approaching
frontal system later today or on Saturday. Although tropical
cyclone development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected to
continue across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next
day or so. Additional information on this system can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
Satellite images indicate that a gale-force low pressure system
located several hundred miles east of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast
is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are
increasingly taking on a non-tropical structure. The low is
forecast to move north-northeastward at 15 to 20 mph offshore the
northeastern United States, reaching colder waters by this evening
and overnight, and its opportunity to acquire subtropical
characteristics appears to be decreasing. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located near the coast of Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move across Central
America and southeastern Mexico today and tonight, and some slow
development is possible over the weekend after the system emerges
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the disturbance
meanders through the early part of next week and then begins to
move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during
the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060516
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished tonight in
association with a broad area of low pressure and a nearby weak
front over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are
expected to remain unfavorable for significant development of this
system while it meanders over the northwestern Gulf and eventually
merges with an approaching frontal system later today or on
Saturday. Although tropical cyclone development is unlikely, heavy
rainfall is expected to continue across portions of the northern
Gulf Coast during the next day or so. Additional information on this
system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization with a
gale-force, non-tropical area of low pressure centered a few hundred
miles east of North Carolina, and recent satellite wind data
indicate a front extends into the low. This system could briefly
acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next day or so
while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining offshore of
the northeastern United States. The low is expected to move over
cooler waters by early Saturday, and thereafter further development
is not expected. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Development is
not expected before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula later today. Some slow development is possible later this
weekend after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the early part
of next week while the disturbance moves slowly northwestward or
northward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052326
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms persists over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with a broad area of
low pressure that is interacting with a nearby weak front.
Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant
development of this system while it meanders over the northwestern
Gulf and eventually merges with an approaching frontal system by
late Friday or Saturday. Although tropical cyclone development is
unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected to continue across portions of
the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or so. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
A gale-force, non-tropical area of low pressure centered a few
hundred miles east of North Carolina is producing showers and
thunderstorms with some signs of organization to the east of its
center. This system could acquire some tropical or subtropical
characteristics over the next day or two while it moves generally
north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United
States. The low is expected to move over cooler waters and become
associated with fronts by early Saturday, and further development is
not expected. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development is not expected before the system reaches Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula by early Friday. Some slow development is possible
later this weekend after the system emerges over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the early part
of next week while the disturbance moves slowly northwestward or
northward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Development is not expected due to strong upper-level
winds while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051745
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwest Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a broad area of low pressure interacting with a weak frontal
boundary located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development by late
Friday and Saturday as another frontal boundary approaches the
system. Although development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is
expected across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next
day or so. Additional information on this system can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located a few
hundred miles east of North Carolina, and recent satellite data
indicates the system is producing winds to near gale-force. This
system could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics
over the next day or two while it moves generally
north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United
States. Once the low moves over cooler waters by early Saturday,
further development is not expected. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing limited shower activity. Development is not
expected through this weekend while the system moves little. Some
slow development appears possible early next week when the
disturbance begins moving slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in
association with a westward-moving tropical wave located over the
western Caribbean Sea. Development is not expected before the
system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by early Friday.
Some gradual development is possible late in the weekend into early
next week after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit
development of this system during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow
development while the system moves over the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Delgado

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051152
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwest Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing widespread disorganized
showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico,
including near the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Upper-level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development by
Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches the system.
Although development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected
across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or
so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the northeast and east of its center. This system
could acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next couple
of days while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining
offshore of the northeastern United States. Once the low moves
over cooler waters by late Saturday, further subtropical development
is not expected. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it drifts northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased slightly in
association with a westward-moving tropical wave located over the
western Caribbean Sea. Significant development appears unlikely
before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by early
Friday. Some development is possible late in the weekend into early
next week after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow
development while the system moves west-northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen

265
ABNT20 KNHC 050526
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of North Carolina is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity well to the east of its center. This system could acquire
some subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days or so
while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining offshore of
the northeastern United States. Once the low moves over cooler
waters by late Saturday, further subtropical development is not
expected. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it drifts northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph over the
western Caribbean Sea continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development is possible
in a few days after the system crosses the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow
development while the system moves northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042327
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system could acquire some subtropical
characteristics over the next few days while it moves north-
northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph is producing
a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the west-central Caribbean Sea. Some development is
possible in a few days when the system moves over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
Another tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be
slow to occur over the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are
expected to become less favorable for additional development by the
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041756
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system could acquire some subtropical
characteristics over the next few days as it moves north-
northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph is producing
a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the central Caribbean Sea. Some development is possible
early next week when the system moves over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
Another tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be
slow to occur over the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are
expected to become less favorable for additional development by the
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041151
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph is
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
near southeastern Cuba, Jamaica, and across portions of the central
Caribbean Sea. Some development is possible late this week when the
wave slows down over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or early next
week over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
Another tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur
over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for additional development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A third tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic is also
producing disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next few days while it moves
slowly northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean. This system could produce locally heavy rains
across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040506
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola and portions of the central Caribbean Sea. Some
development is possible late this week when the wave slows down
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or early next week over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
Another tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur
over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for additional development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A third tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic is also
producing disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next few days while it moves
slowly northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean. This system could produce locally heavy rains
across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 032337
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola and portions of the central Caribbean Sea. Some
development is possible late this week when the wave slows down
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or early next week over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
Another tropical wave located about a thousand miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur
over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for additional development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A third tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic is also
producing disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next few days while it moves
slowly northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean. Environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for development by the end of the week. This system
could produce locally heavy rains across portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands overnight and on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031748
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola and portions of the central Caribbean Sea. As this
system moves westward, some development is possible when it reaches
the western Caribbean Sea and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late
this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system
is possible during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward
or northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive by
the end of the week. This system could produce locally heavy rains
and gusty winds across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands in a day
or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
Another tropical wave located about midway between the west coast
of Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible during the
next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward. By
the end of the week, however, environmental conditions are expected
to become unfavorable for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bann/Cangialosi/R. Zelinsky

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola and portions of the central Caribbean Sea.
This system is expected to move westward, and a tropical depression
could form when it reaches the western Caribbean Sea and the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become a little more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form later this week while the
disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system could produce
locally heavy rains and gusty winds across portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands in a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
Another tropical wave located about midway between the west coast
of Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible during the
next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward. By
the end of the week, however, environmental conditions are expected
to become unfavorable for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/R. Zelinsky

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030518
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a westward-moving tropical wave located over the eastern
Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development when the system reaches the western
Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week, and
over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form during that
time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become a little more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form in a few days while the disturbance
moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system could produce locally heavy
rains and gusty winds across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands in
a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022344
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Caribbean Sea:
A westward-moving tropical wave is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms accompanied by locally heavy rainfall and strong
gusty winds over portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea and the
adjacent land areas. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more conducive for development when the system reaches the
western Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week
and over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form during
that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become a little more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form in a few days while the disturbance
moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system could produce locally heavy
rains and gusty winds across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands in
a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch