Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 921 WTNT41 KNHC 100849 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Francine has not become appreciably better organized overnight. There is a large cluster of cold-topped convection located well to the northeast of the center, but the central deep convection is still not very strong. Some banding features appear to be developing over the northeastern portion of the circulation. The advisory intensity is held at 55 kt for now, in agreement with earlier data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft, and a subjective Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB. Objective Dvorak intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are a little lower. Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the storm in a few hours and should provide a good estimate of Francine's intensity. Center fixes from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and ASCAT data showed little motion a few hours ago, but recent satellite imagery suggest a slow north-northwestward motion at around 340/4 kt. The general steering scenario for the next couple of days remains about the same as in the previous advisory. Francine should move mostly northward today along the western periphery of a mid level high over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. By late tonight, a shortwave trough over Texas is expected to cause a turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed. This motion should bring the center of the system to the Louisiana coast tomorrow afternoon or evening. The model tracks are in fairly good agreement on this scenario, although there is still some cross- and along-track spread. The official track forecast in the 36- to 48-hour time frame has been nudged just a few tenths to the east of the previous one, and lies between the ECMWF solution and the multi-model consensus prediction. The tropical cyclone should be over very warm waters before landfall, although west-southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system is likely to increase. The latter environmental influence will probably limit Francine's strengthening. Nonetheless, the SHIPS-RI Index shows a significant probability of at least a 25-kt increase in maximum winds during the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is now at the high end of the model guidance. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding for much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across portions of northeast Mexico and far southern Texas into early Wednesday, and the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 24.4N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 25.4N 95.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 27.1N 94.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 29.0N 92.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 31.4N 91.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/1800Z 33.8N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/0600Z 35.7N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0600Z 37.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 699 FONT11 KNHC 100848 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) STENNIS MS 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 19(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 6( 6) 19(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 26(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HOUMA LA 34 X 5( 5) 34(39) 21(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) HOUMA LA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HOUMA LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 19(22) 46(68) 3(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 2( 2) 17(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 5( 5) 26(31) 37(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 6( 6) 45(51) 22(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 16(16) 20(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 25(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 6( 6) 44(50) 29(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 12(12) 20(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 6( 6) 52(58) 24(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 19(19) 20(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 7 58(65) 31(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 23(23) 59(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 6( 6) 51(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X 5( 5) 10(15) 14(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 5( 6) 41(47) 10(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 3 16(19) 58(77) 5(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) CAMERON LA 50 X 2( 2) 37(39) 7(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) JASPER TX 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 5( 6) 13(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 7( 8) 29(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 6 23(29) 27(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) GALVESTON TX 50 X 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 2 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) AUSTIN TX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 3 12(15) 11(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 280N 950W 34 12 66(78) 7(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 35(36) 8(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 9(11) 28(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 7 22(29) 6(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 7 20(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKPORT TX 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 270N 960W 34 55 29(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 270N 960W 50 5 24(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HARLINGEN TX 34 12 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 36 2(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) GFMX 250N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 250N 960W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 250N 960W 64 28 4(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) LA PESCA MX 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPICO MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...FRANCINE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 the center of Francine was located near 24.4, -96.2 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 359 WTNT31 KNHC 100848 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 ...FRANCINE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 96.2W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana * Vermilion Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City to Grand Isle * High Island to Sabine Pass * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield * La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 96.2 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow north-northwest motion is expected through this morning, followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through today, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico and south Texas through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northeastern coast of Mexico for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft Galveston Bay...1-3 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 114 WTNT21 KNHC 100848 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 96.2W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 96.2W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 96.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.4N 95.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.1N 94.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.4N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.8N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.7N 90.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 37.0N 90.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 96.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 05:37:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 03:23:01 GMT

...STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST TOMORROW... As of 1:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 the center of Francine was located near 24.3, -96.3 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 100537 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 ...STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 96.3W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana * Vermilion Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City to Grand Isle * High Island to Sabine Pass * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield * La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 96.3 West. Francine has moved little over the past few hours, but it is expected to resume a motion toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow north-northwest motion is expected through this morning, followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through today, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico and south Texas through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northeastern coast of Mexico for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward over the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, and across much of Louisiana and Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

721
ABNT20 KNHC 100528
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Francine, located about 100 miles offshore of northeastern
Mexico.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some
slight development during the next couple of days, but a tropical
depression could still form during that time while the system moves
westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to merge in a couple of days with
a strong tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and
the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
will likely form during the latter part of this week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 03:55:24 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 03:27:29 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 02:33:11 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 418 WTNT41 KNHC 100231 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 After strengthening this afternoon, Francine's intensity appears to have leveled off for now. Around 18Z today, microwave images indicated that the storm had a closed low-level eyewall and a relatively symmetric cloud pattern. However, an intrusion of dry air has caused the inner core convection to degrade. The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Francine this evening and have found that the maximum winds have changed little from earlier and remain around 55 kt. However, the minimum pressure reported from the aircraft has dropped to 992 mb, which could indicate that strengthening will resume soon. The outer rainbands to the west and northwest of the center are very near the coast of northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas, and there are likely tropical-storm-force winds in those bands. The storm has been moving slowly north-northwestward or 340 degrees at 4 kt. A mid-level ridge situated over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico should cause Francine to continue to move slowly northwestward to northward just off the coast of northeastern Mexico through Tuesday morning. By late Tuesday, a trough over Texas is expected to approach the system, and the stronger flow between the trough and the aforementioned ridge should cause a turn to the northeast with a pronounced increase in forward speed. This motion should take the cyclone to the Louisiana coast Wednesday afternoon or evening. The models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario, but there is a fair amount of along-track spread or differences in when the storm reaches the coast. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the TVCN aid. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain quite favorable for strengthening along Francine's path for the next 24 hours, with very warm ocean waters while remaining in a low wind shear environment. The SHIPS RII index for rapid intensification over the next 24 hours has decreased a little due to some dry air in the environment around Francine. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies near the high end of the intensity guidance suite. Just prior to landfall, Francine should encounter increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear, which will likely end the intensification trend. Rapid weakening is expected after the storm moves inland. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico, the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, much of Louisiana, and Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday night into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 24.3N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 24.9N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 26.2N 95.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 27.9N 93.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 29.9N 92.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0000Z 36.6N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen

...FRANCINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 the center of Francine was located near 24.3, -96.2 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 390 WTNT31 KNHC 100230 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 ...FRANCINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 96.2W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana * Vermilion Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City to Grand Isle * High Island to Sabine Pass * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield * La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 96.2 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued slow north-northwest motion is expected through Tuesday morning, followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through Tuesday, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Francine will likely become a hurricane early Tuesday, with significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico and south Texas through Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch area Tuesday and Tuesday night, and are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward over the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, and across much of Louisiana and Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 393 FONT11 KNHC 100230 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 9(28) X(28) X(28) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 14(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 19(29) X(29) X(29) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 9(47) X(47) X(47) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOUMA LA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 41(51) 6(57) X(57) X(57) HOUMA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) HOUMA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 10(10) 32(42) 23(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 50(57) 13(70) X(70) X(70) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) X(28) X(28) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 52(65) 5(70) 1(71) X(71) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 4(30) 1(31) X(31) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) 13(53) X(53) X(53) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 57(69) 9(78) X(78) X(78) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 6(38) 1(39) X(39) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 58(72) 6(78) X(78) X(78) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 6 18(24) 61(85) 10(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 4( 4) 54(58) 16(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) 33(33) 14(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 31(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 46(64) 4(68) X(68) X(68) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X 11(11) 38(49) 36(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 10(10) 35(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) JASPER TX 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 20(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 22(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 5( 5) 19(24) 29(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 5 11(16) 41(57) 10(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) AUSTIN TX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 2 8(10) 26(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 7 43(50) 37(87) 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 9( 9) 31(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 1( 1) 17(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 6( 7) 28(35) 20(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 6 18(24) 24(48) 2(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 7 21(28) 15(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKPORT TX 34 2 12(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 2 9(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 270N 960W 34 28 57(85) 5(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) GFMX 270N 960W 50 1 23(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MCALLEN TX 34 6 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HARLINGEN TX 34 21 10(31) 1(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 52 9(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 250N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 250N 960W 50 74 13(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) GFMX 250N 960W 64 15 19(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) LA PESCA MX 34 4 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TAMPICO MX 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TUXPAN MX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 030 WTNT21 KNHC 100230 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 96.2W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 96.2W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 96.0W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.9N 96.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.2N 95.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.9N 93.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.9N 92.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 25SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 36.6N 90.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 96.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/HAGEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 23:57:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 21:22:58 GMT

...FRANCINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 the center of Francine was located near 24.1, -96.0 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092357 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 ...FRANCINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 96.0W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for extreme southern Texas from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from La Pesca northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana * Vermilion Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City to Grand Isle * High Island to Sabine Pass * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield * La Pesca to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 96.0 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued north-northwest motion is expected through this evening followed by a turn to the northeast with some acceleration beginning Tuesday. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through Tuesday, and nearing the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico and south Texas through Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch area Tuesday and Tuesday night, and are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of northeast Mexico northward over the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, across southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen