Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 02:38:27 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 02:38:27 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 02:34:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 02:34:34 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 110232 TCDAT1 Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Francine tonight, and the data they collected were the basis for upgrading it to a hurricane a few hours ago. The maximum 700 mb flight-level wind measured was 76 kt, which supports an intensity of about 65 kt. The aircraft data also indicated that the minimum pressure has fallen several millibars to 980 mb. Deep convection has been increasing near the center, and radar images indicate that an inner core has developed. There is still some dry air, however, outside of the core region. Francine is starting to move a little faster to the northeast, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 035/9 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough over Texas is approaching the hurricane, and that should cause it to accelerate northeastward toward the Louisiana coast, with landfall expected there late Wednesday afternoon or evening. After Francine moves inland, a turn to the north-northeast and a decrease in forward speed is predicted while it moves across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. The models are in good agreement, and little change was made to the previous track forecast. Now that Francine has a well organized core, significant strengthening seems likely through Wednesday morning while the system remains over very warm waters and in low wind shear conditions. The hurricane regional models are quite aggressive and show Francine strengthening quickly, while the dynamical-statistical models show much less intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is between those solutions and continues to show Francine nearing category 2 strength Wednesday morning. A notable increase in shear and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for strengthening just before Francine reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after the cyclone moves inland. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on Wednesday for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete, since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 26.4N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 27.7N 93.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 29.7N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/1200Z 32.0N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0000Z 34.2N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 13/1200Z 35.5N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 36.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 363 FONT11 KNHC 110232 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0300 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GULFPORT MS 34 2 17(19) 15(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) GULFPORT MS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 2 33(35) 21(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) STENNIS MS 50 X 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) STENNIS MS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 2 41(43) 4(47) X(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) BURAS LA 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 4 23(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X 6( 6) 34(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 67(69) 13(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 34(34) 7(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUMA LA 34 3 85(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) HOUMA LA 50 X 53(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) HOUMA LA 64 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 31 55(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) GFMX 280N 910W 50 2 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 76(78) 12(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 49(49) 12(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 91(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 70(70) 4(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 2 12(14) 8(22) X(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 3 71(74) 4(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 46(46) 4(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 3 82(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 60(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 930W 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 89 7(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GFMX 280N 930W 64 78 7(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 2 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LAKE CHARLES 34 3 21(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 10 48(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CAMERON LA 50 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAMERON LA 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JASPER TX 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GALVESTON TX 34 6 6(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GALVESTON TX 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 34 2(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GFMX 280N 950W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKPORT TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...FRANCINE MOVING TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 the center of Francine was located near 26.4, -94.3 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 416 WTNT31 KNHC 110231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 ...FRANCINE MOVING TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 94.3W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from High Island to Sabine Pass has been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Line has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Cameron Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 94.3 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected through Wednesday. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana Wednesday afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward into Mississippi Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area Wednesday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Wednesday and Wednesday night. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Vermilion/Cameron Line, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Cameron, LA to Vermilion/Cameron Line, LA...3-5 ft Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 110231 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0300 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 94.3W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 94.3W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 94.7W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.7N 93.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.7N 91.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 25SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.0N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.2N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.5N 89.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 36.3N 89.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 94.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY... As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 the center of Francine was located near 25.8, -94.8 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 102345 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 ...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY... Corrected to add hurricane-force wind radius to the discussion and outlook section. SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sabine Pass Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Texas and Louisiana coasts east of High Island to Cameron * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 94.8 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana Wednesday afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward into the Mississippi Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area Wednesday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Wednesday and Wednesday night. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Cameron, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...3-5 ft Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102336
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Francine, located in the western Gulf of Mexico, well offshore of
southern Texas.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some slight development during the next day or two
while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic. The disturbance is expected to reach an area of
drier air on Thursday, likely ending its chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
A trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing a large but disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms from near the Cabo Verde Islands extending
southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression will likely form during the latter part of this
week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 21:42:14 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 21:19:29 GMT

Issued at 403 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 20:40:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 20:40:49 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 102038 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 The convection associated with Francine has not changed much in organization during the past six hours. Radar data from the WSR-88D Doppler radar in Brownsville shows good curved banding around the center, but the convection is having trouble persisting, possibly due to continued dry air entrainment. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft prior to 18Z showed that the central pressure had dropped to near 987 mb, and that the maximum 700-mb flight-level winds were 63 kt. Based on these data and satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt. The initial motion is now 035/9 kt. An approaching mid-latitude shortwave trough over Texas should cause the storm to move northeastward at a faster forward speed during the next 24-36 h, and this motion should bring the center to the Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. After that time, Francine should turn more northward between the trough and a mid-level ridge over the eastern United States. While there is little change to the track forecast scenario since the last advisory, the track guidance has again shifted to the east, most notably between 12-48 h. Based on this change, the forecast track during that period is again nudged a little to the east. The new track lies just to the left of the various consensus models. Francine has about 24 h to strengthen over warm water before it encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there remains a possibility that dry air entrainment could continue to reduce the intensification rate, the intensity forecast continues to call for steady to rapid strengthening during this time based on the otherwise favorable conditions, and the forecast peak intensity of 80 kt is at the high end of the intensity guidance. Intensification is expected to stop near or just before landfall, and rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The global models continue to show the remnants of Francine dissipating after 96 h, and the intensity forecast again follows that scenario. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 25.7N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 26.9N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 28.9N 92.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 31.0N 90.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1800Z 33.4N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 13/0600Z 35.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1800Z 36.1N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 37.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 102038 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 2100 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MOBILE AL 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GULFPORT MS 34 X 7( 7) 27(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X 10(10) 41(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) STENNIS MS 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 34 1 20(21) 23(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 4 29(33) 6(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X 5( 5) 19(24) 10(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 26(27) 47(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOUMA LA 34 1 55(56) 29(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) HOUMA LA 50 X 15(15) 26(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) HOUMA LA 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 9 72(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 29(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 30(31) 51(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 3( 3) 25(28) X(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 2 64(66) 25(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 22(22) 31(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 7( 8) 14(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 49(50) 26(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 6( 6) 17(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 61(63) 21(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 14(14) 21(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 54 45(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 5 83(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) GFMX 280N 930W 64 1 48(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 1 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 24(25) 8(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CAMERON LA 34 6 55(61) 4(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) CAMERON LA 50 X 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CAMERON LA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JASPER TX 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 13(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GALVESTON TX 34 8 17(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GALVESTON TX 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 950W 34 53 9(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 280N 950W 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 12(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MATAGORDA TX 34 7 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PORT O CONNOR 34 6 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ROCKPORT TX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 40 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) HARLINGEN TX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 20:38:29 GMT

...FRANCINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...CHANGES TO WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 the center of Francine was located near 25.7, -95.0 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 102037 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 ...FRANCINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...CHANGES TO WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 95.0W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and metropolitan New Orleans. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Alabama coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border. The Hurricane Warning for the southwestern coast of Louisiana from Sabine Pass to Cameron has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued for the Texas coast west of Sabine Pass. All warnings and watches have been discontinued for the Texas coast from High Island southward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sabine Pass Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Texas and Louisiana coasts east of High Island to Cameron * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 95.0 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A continued northeastward motion and a faster forward speed are expected tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight, and then make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday or Wednesday night. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward into Mississippi on Wednesday night or Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning, and Francine will likely become a hurricane tonight. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Wednesday and Wednesday night. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Cameron, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...3-5 ft Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are expected to spread across the remainder of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven