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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 11:53:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 09:23:07 GMT

...DEBBY MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Debby was located near 34.1, -79.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081152 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 24A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...DEBBY MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... Corrected Maximum Sustained Winds in Summary Section SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 79.9W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WNW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located inland over South Carolina near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 79.9 West. Debby is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The storm is expected to accelerate toward the north-northwest and north across eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina through tonight. Debby is then expected to move faster toward the northeast across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Debby is likely to become a tropical depression this afternoon or evening. Debby should then merge with a front and become extratropical on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) to the east of the center. A sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the tropical storm warning area for much of the day. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North Carolina this morning. The tornado threat will shift northward later today into central North Carolina and southern to central Virginia. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast for another day or two. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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859
ABNT20 KNHC 081136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located over South Carolina.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of low pressure could form in the central or western
tropical Atlantic Ocean early next week. Some development of this
system is possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during
the early to middle part of next week and moves generally
west-northwestward toward the Greater Antilles thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

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