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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 17:55:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 15:22:55 GMT

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Debby was located near 34.8, -80.2 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081746 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.8N 80.2W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 100 MI...175 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Surf City has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near inland latitude 34.8 North, longitude 80.2 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The storm is expected to accelerate toward the north across central North Carolina through tonight. Debby is then expected to move faster toward the northeast across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Debby is likely to become a tropical depression this afternoon or evening. Debby should then merge with a front and become extratropical on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along portions of coastal North Carolina within the tropical storm warning area during the few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding, especially in the terrain of western Virginia, with river flooding also possible. From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For the remainder of northern New England, 1 to 3 inches, with local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated with this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight from central and eastern North Carolina into central and southeast Virginia. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast for another day or so. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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000
ABNT20 KNHC 081732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, centered inland near the border of North Carolina
and South Carolina.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any
development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next few
days while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it
approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system is then forecast to move
generally west-northwestward and could approach the Greater Antilles
by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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