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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 14:43:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 15:22:55 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 081442 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Debby continues to move farther inland with the center now located over northern South Carolina. Surface observations and radar data indicate that the strongest winds are likely occurring near the coast and just offshore of southern North Carolina. The highest sustained winds during the past couple of hours from reliable surface observation sites are near 30 kt with higher gusts. Based on the decreasing observed wind speeds, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. By far, the most significant threat with Debby continues to be flash flooding from heavy rainfall. Debby is starting to accelerate toward the north-northwest, with the current motion estimated at 345/9-kt. A ridge that is currently strengthening over the western Atlantic will cause Debby to accelerate northward, moving across central North Carolina this evening. Then, a deep-layer trough will approach the Great Lakes region on Friday, which will cause Debby to accelerate northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Friday and Friday night and then over Atlantic Canada on Saturday. There are only minor changes to the track forecast, hedging toward the latest consensus models. Debby should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and most of the models indicate that the winds near the coast should decrease a bit more later today. Debby is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by this afternoon or evening. Model phase space diagrams show that Debby should complete transition to an extratropical cyclone in about 24 to 30 h. The current satellite imagery shows that Debby is already starting to interact with the jet stream, which extends toward the east-northeast over the North Atlantic. Debby is now expected to complete extratropical transition in about 24 h as the cyclone merges with a cold front while over the mid-Atlantic states. Beyond Friday, models show a post-tropical Debby becoming extremely elongated along the cold front, which will eventually lead to dissipation. The new NHC forecast has Debby dissipating Sunday morning, but that could occur sooner. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding. Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable to locally catastrophic flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast through Saturday morning. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue for several more hours in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the coast of northeastern South Carolina and portions of North Carolina. 3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely to continue along portions of the North Carolina coastline for several more hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 34.5N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0000Z 35.8N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 38.7N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0000Z 42.8N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z 47.0N 69.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0000Z 50.7N 61.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 081442 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) DOVER DE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 11(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) RICHMOND VA 34 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DANVILLE VA 34 25 8(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) RALEIGH NC 34 86 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ROCKY MT NC 34 17 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA AS DEBBY MOVES FARTHER INLAND... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Debby was located near 34.5, -79.9 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081441 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA AS DEBBY MOVES FARTHER INLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 79.9W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from South Santee River to Murrells Inlet has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Murrells Inlet, South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next several hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 79.9 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The storm is expected to accelerate toward the north across central North Carolina through tonight. Debby is then expected to move faster toward the northeast across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Debby is likely to become a tropical depression this afternoon or evening. Debby should then merge with a front and become extratropical on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of northeastern South Carolina and portions of coastal North Carolina within the tropical storm warning area during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding, especially in the terrain of western Virginia, with river flooding also possible. From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For the remainder of northern New England, 1 to 3 inches, with local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated with this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight from central and eastern North Carolina into central and southeast Virginia. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast for another day or two. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 081441 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 170SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 79.9W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.8N 79.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.7N 78.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.8N 75.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 47.0N 69.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 50.7N 61.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 79.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI

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