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Tropical Storm Debby Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 20:48:50 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 21:23:57 GMT
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion Number 22
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
994
WTNT44 KNHC 072046
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
Debby is producing small, broken bands of convection around its
center this afternoon. The storm continues to meander around NOAA
buoy 41004, and data from that station indicate the central pressure
remains around 995 mb. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported peak
SFMR winds of 47 kt within convection to the northeast of the center
during their last pass through the storm a few hours ago. Based on
these data and the earlier flight-level winds, the initial intensity
is held at 50 kt.
Although the storm is moving over warm waters, it lacks an inner
core and has a large radius of maximum wind. Therefore, only modest
strengthening is forecast during the next 12 h while the system
approaches South Carolina, in best agreement with some of the
statistical guidance. Once inland, Debby is expected to quickly lose
tropical characteristics and weaken. The interaction of Debby with
the upper trough will lead to a baroclinic transition as the low
merges with a frontal zone and becomes extratropical. The NHC
forecast shows this occurring by Friday. However, it is important to
note that these changes do not diminish the threat of heavy rainfall
and flooding across portions of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and
northeastern United States during the next few days.
The long-term motion of Debby is a north-northeastward drift within
weak steering currents between two subtropical high pressure areas.
However, more recent fixes suggest the system may be turning
northward as expected, with a ridge beginning to build to the east
of Debby over the western Atlantic. Thus, a north-northwestward to
northward motion is expected through tonight while Debby approaches
the coast of South Carolina. After landfall, Debby will become
caught in southerly to southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough near the Great Lakes region. This will cause the storm to
accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward on Friday and into
the weekend. With the guidance in good agreement on this scenario,
little change was made to the updated NHC track forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through Thursday along with areas of considerable flooding.
Expected heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding
impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast
through Saturday morning.
2. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the South
Carolina and North Carolina coast through Thursday. Tropical storm
warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area.
3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 32.5N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 08/1800Z 34.3N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 36.2N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 09/1800Z 39.8N 77.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/0600Z 44.3N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1800Z 48.8N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1800Z 53.0N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Categories: Weather
NASA Says Boeing Starliner Astronauts May Fly Home on SpaceX in 2025
The agency had insisted for a couple of months that it was confident that Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore would return on Starliner.
Categories: News
Tropical Storm Debby Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024
968
FONT14 KNHC 072045
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DANVILLE VA 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GREENSBORO NC 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
RALEIGH NC 34 2 5( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
ROCKY MT NC 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 15 22(37) 4(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CHERRY PT NC 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NEW RIVER NC 34 19 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 22 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
SURF CITY NC 34 44 5(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
WILMINGTON NC 34 48 6(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FLORENCE SC 34 29 26(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
FLORENCE SC 50 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
COLUMBIA SC 34 4 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
LITTLE RIVER 34 79 9(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
LITTLE RIVER 50 4 10(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 85 8(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 12 15(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 85 7(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 13 22(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
CHARLESTON SC 34 69 10(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
CHARLESTON SC 50 28 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 44 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
SAVANNAH GA 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KINGS BAY GA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Categories: Weather
Summary for Tropical Storm Debby (AT4/AL042024)
...DEBBY SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 7
the center of Debby was located near 32.5, -79.1
with movement NNE at 3 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Debby Public Advisory Number 22
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
997
WTNT34 KNHC 072045
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
...DEBBY SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 79.1 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected tonight, bringing the center across the South
Carolina coast on Thursday morning. After landfall, a faster motion
toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and the
U.S. Mid-Atlantic states is expected on Thursday and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible tonight before the center of Debby
reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is forecast to begin
on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby is expected to
merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states on
Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals recently
reported a wind gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA buoy data is
995 mb (29.39 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm
watch area in North Carolina today through Thursday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm
total amounts as high as 25 inches in eastern South Carolina and 15
inches in southeast North Carolina with considerable flooding
expected across portions of South Carolina and southeast North
Carolina through Friday.
An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing
overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may
aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions.
From the piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of
Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are
expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas
of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding
possible.
From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4
inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through
Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding as well as river flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North
Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight. The
risk of tornadoes will shift northward on Thursday into central
North Carolina and central Virginia.
SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Advisory Number 22
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024
958
WTNT24 KNHC 072044
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 79.1W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 160SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 79.1W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 79.1W
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.4W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 30SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.3N 79.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.2N 79.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 39.8N 77.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 44.3N 73.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 48.8N 67.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 53.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 79.1W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Categories: Weather
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