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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 08:49:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 09:29:02 GMT

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 120848 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Francine has continued to rapidly weaken overnight while moving inland across eastern Louisiana. The system is highly sheared due to its interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest. Francine is quickly losing tropical characteristics, and surface observations indicate the surface center is located south and west of the heaviest rainfall. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, continue over portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area. Earlier scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt offshore winds, and the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt. The storm has slowed down a bit and is now moving northeastward at about 10 kt. Francine is expected to turn north-northeastward and northward today, bringing the center across central and northern Mississippi. Continued weakening is expected, and tropical storm conditions along the coasts of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama are likely to subside this morning as the low weakens and moves further inland. Given its degraded satellite structure, Francine is likely to degenerate to a post-tropical low as early as this morning, with dissipation forecast to occur by 48 h. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge during the next several hours for portions of the eastern Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow advice given by local officials. 2. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for coastal portions of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where tropical storm conditions could continue for the next few hours. 3. Francine will continue to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and the Southeast. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding is possible today and tonight over portions of central and northern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 30.9N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 32.6N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/0600Z 34.4N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1800Z 35.1N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...FRANCINE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Francine was located near 30.9, -90.1 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 120847 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 ...FRANCINE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 90.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning west of Grand Isle, Louisiana has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, beginning shortly for the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 90.1 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast and north is expected during the next day or so, with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Francine will move over central and northern portions of Mississippi through early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a tropical depression this morning and degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service weather station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana recently reported a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to continue in portions of the warning area for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Localized amounts up to 10 inches are possible within rain bands over portions of central and northern Alabama and over the Florida Panhandle. This rainfall could lead to locally considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Francine will continue to affect much of the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 120847 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 24 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUMA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120846 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 The system has changed little in organization overnight, with limited deep convection and slight banding features. An AMSR-2 microwave image suggested that the circulation was still somewhat broad since the cloud bands were not very tightly curved. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt given the depression's lack of increased organization. This is also in agreement with a DMINT objective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS based on the AMSR data. The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading with an estimated motion of 290/15 kt. A gradually weakening ridge over the eastern subtropical Atlantic should maintain this general motion with decreasing forward speed over the next 2-3 days. Later in the forecast period, an amplifying trough is expected to erode the ridge, which should cause the cyclone to turn at least a little to the right. The track guidance becomes somewhat divergent in the 4- to 5-day time frame, but is in overall agreement on a rather slow motion. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction and close to the various dynamical model consensus solutions. Environmental conditions seem fairly conducive for at least gradual strengthening during the next few days, with low- to moderate-vertical wind shear and marginally warm SSTs. However, the models are not very bullish on strengthening until near the end of the forecast period. This may be due to a somewhat stable air mass over the eastern Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS model guidance through 72 hours, but shows no change after that time given the uncertainties in intensity prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 17.3N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 18.1N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 20.0N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 20.7N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 21.2N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 12 the center of Seven was located near 17.3, -33.0 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120846 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 33.0W ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 33.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 120846 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 120845 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 90.1W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 130SE 60SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 90.1W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 90.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.6N 89.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 34.4N 90.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.1N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 90.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120845 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.0W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.0W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 32.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.1N 34.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.0N 43.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 20.7N 45.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 21.2N 47.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 33.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 06:02:40 GMT

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 120552 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 ...CENTER OF FRANCINE PASSING NORTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 90.3W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning west of Morgan City, Louisiana has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, beginning shortly for the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 90.3 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower north-northeastward to northward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a tropical depression later today and a post-tropical cyclone by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The New Orleans Lakefront Airport recently reported sustained winds of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). The Bay Waveland Yacht Club in Mississippi recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of 46 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the warning area through early this morning. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through tonight. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash, urban, and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible during the next few hours across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The tornado risk will move into additional parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle today. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart