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A rare look inside war-torn Sudan. And, the data behind grocery inflation.
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(Image credit: Luke Dray @lukedrayphoto)
Categories: News
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121152
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Francine, located inland over south-central Mississippi,
and on Tropical Depression Seven, located over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of
the Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Development of this system is not expected while it moves
westward at around 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a bit more concentrated in
association with a small area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, the proximity of dry
air near the system is expected to limit additional development
over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected
to become even less conducive over the weekend while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along
a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern
U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development
is possible during the early part of next week while the system
drifts to the north or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Categories: Weather
Summary for Tropical Depression Francine (AT1/AL062024)
...FRANCINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 12
the center of Francine was located near 31.9, -90.1
with movement NNE at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Categories: Weather
Tropical Depression Francine Public Advisory Number 15A
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
000
WTNT31 KNHC 121142
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
...FRANCINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 90.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued between Grand Isle,
Louisiana and the mouth of the Pearl River
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coasts of
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, including Lake Maurepas, Lake
Pontchartrain, and metropolitan New Orleans.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* The mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Francine was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 90.1 West.
Francine is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19
km/h). A turn toward the north is expected during the next day or
so, with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the
center of Francine will move over central and northern portions of
Mississippi through early Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Francine is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next
several hours over portions of southeastern Louisiana, southeastern
and central Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama.
RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 3 to
6 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas,
Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Localized
amounts up to 10 inches are possible within rain bands over portions
of central and northern Alabama and over the Florida Panhandle. This
rainfall could lead to locally considerable flash and urban
flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly this morning
and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama.
SURF: Swells generated by Francine will continue to affect much of
the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Categories: Weather
The Grenfell Fire and the Unbearable Slowness of Public Inquiries
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Categories: News
Harris and Trump’s Next Moves, and Francine Lashes Southern Louisiana
Plus, debunking claims about immigrants in Ohio.
Categories: News
Francine Floods New Orleans Areas Scarred by Past Storms
Southern Louisiana residents braced for floods as the storm passed through. Many were in neighborhoods that were battered by Katrina and Ida.
Categories: News
French Ship That Sank in 1856 Disaster Is Found Off Massachusetts Coast
Le Lyonnais was discovered in the Atlantic Ocean about 140 miles east of Nantucket, Mass. More than 100 died after the French passenger steamship sank.
Categories: News
Local Statement for Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL
Issued at 407 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Categories: Weather
Forecast of Cooler Weather Offers Relief to Those Fighting Wildfires in the West
In California, the fires have displaced tens of thousands of people, charred more than 100,000 acres and strained the state’s resources.
Categories: News
Harris, After a Debate Success, Confronts a Battleground ‘Game of Inches’
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Categories: News
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