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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 20:25:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 21:23:04 GMT

Waters rose and then receded quickly in New Orleans and communities to its southwest, where Hurricane Francine made landfall.

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 122022 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 Tropical Depression Seven appears somewhat more organized on satellite imagery this afternoon, with a compact circulation and a couple bursts of deeper convection near the center, though it has been exposed for portions of the day. Subjective and objective Dvorak numbers indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical storm. However, the initial intensity will stay 30 kt, at the lower end of the estimates, until we get a little more definitive evidence of a tropical storm. The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading, and the general motion is expected to continue over the next 2-3 days. The forward speed should gradually slow as the subtropical ridge to the north of the system weakens. Track guidance diverges considerably early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered northeast of the Leeward Islands. The GFS-based guidance has trended much farther west and faster, showing a weakening system at long range. However, the ECMWF and its ensemble members still show a risk of a stronger system, so the forecast will stay on the northeastern side of the track guidance. The new NHC forecast is faster and left of the previous one owing to the bulk of the guidance shifts during this cycle. While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance is even lower than the last cycle. Slight strengthening seems most probable within the marginal environment, and the forecast continues to show a 45-kt peak in 5 days. There is also the potential for greater strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft. The latest intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, on the high side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 18.3N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 19.8N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 20.3N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Hurley/Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 122022 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HURLEY/BLAKE

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 12 the center of Seven was located near 18.3, -35.9 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 122021 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 35.9W ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 35.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hurley/Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 122021 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 35.9W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 35.9W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 35.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.8N 46.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.3N 50.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 35.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HURLEY/BLAKE

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