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Issued at 959 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 14:57:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:22:54 GMT

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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 14:52:09 GMT


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Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 121450 CCA TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Francine Discussion Number 16...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Corrected Frances to Francine in the first paragraph Francine has continued to weaken this morning as the center moves across central Mississippi. Surface observations indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 996 mb, with winds of 25-30 kt observed about 80 n mi east and northeast of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is decreased to 30 kt. The surface observations and satellite imagery also suggest that Francine is merging with a frontal zone, and it is expected to become a post-tropical low later today or tonight. It should be noted that while the forecast shows the surface cyclone dissipating by 48 h, the remnants of the circulation above the surface will persist beyond that time and continue the heavy rainfall threat. The initial motion is now 360/12. A continued northward to north-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected before dissipation, bringing Francine or its remnants across northern Mississippi into northeastern Arkansas. This is the last Tropical Cyclone Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php KEY MESSAGES: 1. Elevated water levels and high surf along portions of the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts should subside today. Until this occurs, residents in the affected area should continue to follow advice given by local officials. 2. Francine will continue to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and the Southeast. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible through tonight over portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, expanding into Georgia and middle Tennessee Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 32.5N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 13/0000Z 34.3N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 13/1200Z 35.3N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 371 WTNT42 KNHC 121449 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 Tropical Depression Seven looks more organized on satellite imagery this morning, with a compact circulation and a small curved band with some deep convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak numbers indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical storm. However, given the relatively small size of ongoing convection near the center, the initial intensity was conservatively held at 30 knots, or at the lower end of the estimates. The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading, and the general motion is expected to continue over the next 2-3 days. The forward speed should gradually slow as the subtropical ridge to the north of the system weakens. Track guidance diverges considerably early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered northeast of the Leeward Islands. This track forecast stays close to the global model consensus and places less weight on the regional hurricane models which depict a considerably weaker and less organized system. This produces a track forecast that is slightly faster and to the left of the previous forecast. While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance came in lower for this cycle. We show the system becoming a tropical storm in the next day, followed by the intensity only slowly increasing to 45 knots in the next five days. However, there is potential for greater strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft. The new forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but above the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 17.8N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 18.5N 36.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 19.2N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 19.6N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 19.8N 43.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 20.1N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 20.6N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 21.0N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Lamers/Bann/Blake

President Biden has refused to allow Ukraine to use long-range Western missiles on Russian military targets, but he appears to be wavering.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 121448 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BANN/LAMERS/BLAKE

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 12 the center of Seven was located near 17.8, -34.6 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 011 WTNT32 KNHC 121448 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 34.6W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 34.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Lamers/Bann/Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 121447 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 34.6W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 34.6W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 33.9W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.5N 36.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.2N 38.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.6N 40.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.8N 43.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.1N 44.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.6N 46.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 21.0N 47.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 34.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BANN/LAMERS/BLAKE

...FRANCINE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Francine was located near 32.5, -90.1 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 121438 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Francine Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 ...FRANCINE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 90.1W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Francine was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 90.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Francine will move over central and northern portions of Mississippi this afternoon and tonight and move into northeastern Arkansas by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations from the Jackson area is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next few hours over portions of central Mississippi and western Alabama. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Localized amounts of 12 inches are possible over portions of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and Georgia. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf coast between eastern Louisiana and Alabama but will recede through this afternoon. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across the Florida Panhandle, southern and central Alabama, and southwest Georgia. SURF: Swells generated by Francine should subside along the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 121438 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 121438 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 90.1W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 90.1W AT 12/1500Z...INLAND AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 90.1W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.3N 90.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.3N 90.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 90.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT21 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP . $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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