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Hurricane Francine Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
000
WTNT41 KNHC 112056
TCDAT1
Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Satellite, radar, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data indicate that not only has Francine stayed well organized
during the past six hours despite increasing westerly shear, it has
strengthened a little. The latest reports from the aircraft showed
the central pressure has fallen to near 972 mb with maximum 700
mb flight-level winds of 99 kt to the southeast of the center.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt.
The initial motion is now 045/15 kt. The flow between a mid- to
upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level
trough over Texas should steer Francine northeastward for the next
12 h or so. The hurricane is expected to make landfall along the
Louisiana coast in the next few hours and move across southeastern
Louisiana tonight. After that, a turn toward the north on the east
side of the trough will bring the center of Francine across
southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday. This should be
followed by a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed
until the cyclone dissipates. The new track guidance is a little
faster than for the previous advisory, so the new forecast track is
similar to, but faster than, the previous track.
Little change in strength is expected during the final hours before
landfall. After landfall, Francine is expected to quickly weaken
while also losing tropical characteristics. Transition to an
extratropical cyclone is expected to be complete by Friday morning,
with the cyclone forecast to dissipate after 60 h.
An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through
tonight for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area
should continue to follow advice given by local officials.
2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana this evening and tonight, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. Ensure you are in a safe location
before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding,
across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban
flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 29.2N 91.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 30.8N 90.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/1800Z 33.3N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0600Z 35.0N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/1800Z 35.7N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 14/0600Z 36.3N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
Categories: Weather
Hurricane Francine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024
000
FONT11 KNHC 112056
PWSAT1
HURRICANE FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MOBILE AL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GULFPORT MS 34 36 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
STENNIS MS 34 79 X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
STENNIS MS 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BURAS LA 34 44 X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
JACKSON MS 34 4 35(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 25 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HOUMA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HOUMA LA 50 82 X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
HOUMA LA 64 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MORGAN CITY LA 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
MORGAN CITY LA 64 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Categories: Weather
Hurricane Francine Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
000
WTNT31 KNHC 112056
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
...FRANCINE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS THE EYE APPROACHES
THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING
ONTO THE LOUISIANA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 91.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning is discontinued west of the
Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama
Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to
Grand Isle
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Louisiana coast from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Line
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
beginning shortly for the indicated locations.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 91.5 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general
motion should continue through this afternoon, and Francine is
anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area
in the next few hours. After landfall, the center is expected to
cross southeastern Louisiana tonight, then move northward across
Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph
(155 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is
expected before landfall. Francine is expected to rapidly weaken
after landfall, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical
Thursday night or Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). An oil platform southeast of the center recently
reported sustained winds of 79 mph (127 km/h) and a peak gust of
93 mph (150 km/h) at an elevation of 82 ft (25 m). The National
Ocean Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana, recently
reported sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a wind gust of
99 mph (159 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 972 mb (28.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading into the hurricane
warning area, with tropical storm conditions already ongoing.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this
evening and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama this evening and
tonight.
RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash, urban and river flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. On Thursday, the tornado risk
will move into additional parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle.
SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Categories: Weather
Hurricane Francine Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024
000
WTNT21 KNHC 112055
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 91.5W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 180SE 120SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 91.5W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 92.1W
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.8N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.3N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.0N 90.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.7N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 36.3N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 91.5W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Categories: Weather
Tropical Depression Seven Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 20:48:57 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 21:28:56 GMT
Categories: Weather
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024
000
WTNT42 KNHC 112043
TCDAT2
Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024
Satellite images show there has been little change with the
depression this afternoon. Although deep convection has faded
some, this is pretty typical at this time of day. The initial wind
speed will stay 30 kt, similar to the recent objective and
subjective Dvorak classifications.
The depression is still moving 285/16, and little change to the
motion is expected over the next 36 to 48 hours before its forward
speed slows in response to the approach of an amplifying
mid-level trough over the Atlantic. The big change to note is
that most of the guidance is significantly slower and now start to
recurve the system around day 5 (rather than continue westward).
The new forecast is a lot slower than the previous one and future
adjustments could be made if later guidance continue this trend
(continuity prevents a larger change).
Generally low wind shear and warm waters for the first couple of
days should allow the depression to strengthen during that time.
Thereafter, an increase in westerly shear and possible dry air
intrusions could prevent further intensification, but this is still
a pretty uncertain forecast at long range due to the track
uncertainty. Most of the models are a bit lower beyond 2 days, and
the new NHC intensity forecast is nudged downward at long range.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 16.2N 30.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 17.0N 32.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 17.8N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 18.8N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 19.3N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 19.6N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 20.2N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 20.7N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake
Categories: Weather
Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024
000
FONT12 KNHC 112042
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BANN/BLAKE
Categories: Weather
Summary for Tropical Depression Seven (AT2/AL072024)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY...
As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 11
the center of Seven was located near 16.2, -30.3
with movement WNW at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Categories: Weather
Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024
000
WTNT32 KNHC 112042
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT
OR ON THURSDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 30.3W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 30.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30
km/h), and a west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward
speed is anticipated over the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Thursday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake
Categories: Weather
Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024
233
WTNT22 KNHC 112041
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 30.3W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 30.3W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 29.6W
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.0N 32.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.8N 35.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.8N 37.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.3N 39.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.6N 41.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 20.2N 44.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 20.7N 47.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 30.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BANN/BLAKE
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