Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 211247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 75.3W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 75.3 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening could occur while Oscar moves across the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and are possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 11:57:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 09:22:47 GMT

...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN CUBA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 the center of Oscar was located near 20.2, -75.3 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 211155 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 75.3W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 75.3 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening could occur while Oscar moves across the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and are possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Oscar, located over eastern Cuba.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Delgado

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 08:38:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 09:22:47 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210837 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 The center of Oscar has continued to move over eastern Cuba overnight. Although radar imagery from Guantanamo Bay has shown a continued degradation of Oscar's inner core, bands of deep convection with heavy rainfall remain over portions of the island. A couple of ASCAT passes from earlier in the night showed that tropical-storm-force winds were occurring along both the southern and northern coasts of eastern Cuba. Given the decrease in inner core organization over the past several hours, the initial wind speed has been lowered perhaps conservatively to 45 kt for this advisory. Radar and surface observations from Guantanamo Bay indicate that the center is located just north of that location. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/2 kt. The storm should begin to turn northwestward and northward later today ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the northwestern Bahamas. Some of the dynamical model guidance suggests that the center may re-form near the northern coast of Cuba later today, rather than the low-level center continuously tracking across the mountainous terrain of the island. Regardless of the details of the track over eastern Cuba, Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern coast of Cuba later today or tonight. Thereafter, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward over portions of the southeastern Bahamas and western Atlantic ahead of the aforementioned trough. In 60-72 hours, global model guidance indicates that the circulation will become elongated and that it will be absorbed by a larger developing non-tropical area of low pressure between Bermuda and the southeastern U.S. coast by day 3. The track guidance is again faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Additional weakening is expected while Oscar moves over eastern Cuba today. Most of the guidance now keeps Oscar a tropical cyclone after it emerges off the northern coast of Cuba, but increasing westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air should prevent significant restrengthening before it is absorbed by a non-tropical area of low pressure. The primary hazard associated with Oscar will be heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Key Messages: 1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today across portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 20.2N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0600Z 21.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 22/1800Z 22.9N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 24.5N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA $$ Forecaster Brown

...OSCAR PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN CUBA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 the center of Oscar was located near 20.2, -75.1 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 210836 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...OSCAR PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 75.1W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 75.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is likely while Oscar moves across the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore flow along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 210836 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0900 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 210835 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0900 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 75.1W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 75.1W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 74.9W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N 75.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 74.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.5N 72.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 75.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

...SLOW-MOVING OSCAR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN CUBA... As of 2:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 the center of Oscar was located near 20.2, -74.9 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 359 WTNT31 KNHC 210551 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...SLOW-MOVING OSCAR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 74.9W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located inland over eastern Cuba near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 74.9 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (8 km/h). A turn to the west and northwest is expected today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Oscar interacts with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas today into Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Wednesday morning. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 05:51:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 03:23:05 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210539
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Oscar, located over eastern Cuba.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 02:46:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 03:23:05 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210245 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Oscar made landfall around 2150 UTC as a 70-kt hurricane near the city of Baracoa in the Guantanamo province of eastern Cuba. Radar data from Guantanamo Bay shows Oscar has continued to move slowly over eastern Cuba tonight, with heavy rainfall spreading across the region. Oscar's slow motion will enhance the potential for heavy rainfall, life-threatening flash flooding, and mudslides across eastern Cuba, particularly near higher terrain. There has been notable degradation of Oscar's inner core structure in recent radar and satellite images, which suggests weakening is occurring due to ongoing land interaction. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this advisory. Oscar wobbled slightly southward on its final approach to Cuba, but recent radar data suggest the system has resumed a slow west-southwestward to westward motion. Oscar should remain over eastern Cuba or very near the coast during the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, the flow ahead of a digging shortwave trough over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to capture Oscar, which should result in a northeastward acceleration through midweek. The track guidance trended faster this cycle, particularly the ECMWF (which has handled Oscar well) and even the GFS with a shallower vortex depiction. The NHC track forecast once again shows a faster forward speed between 36-72 h, generally between the HCCA/TVCN consensus aids and the GFS/ECMWF (GFEX). Weakening is expected to continue as the inner core structure of Oscar is disrupted by the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. The extent of the weakening that occurs, and whether Oscar remains a tropical cyclone (TC) once it emerges off the northern coast of Cuba, is still somewhat uncertain. The ECMWF has been the best-performing guidance for Oscar and shows it remaining a TC, while other models including the GFS suggest more significant weakening and possible degeneration to a surface trough. Even if Oscar survives, the environmental conditions over the southwestern Atlantic are expected to become more hostile, with stronger vertical wind shear and a drier surrounding airmass likely to inhibit much redevelopment. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but shows post-tropical status at 72 h given the shear. If Oscar survives that long, it should become absorbed by a larger, non-tropical low pressure system over the western Atlantic by 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, potentially life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue overnight across portions of eastern Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 20.3N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 20.4N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0000Z 20.9N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 22/1200Z 21.9N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 23.4N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 27.3N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 210245 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 45 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 773 WTNT31 KNHC 210244 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES AS SLOW-MOVING OSCAR MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 74.6W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watch and changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located inland over eastern Cuba near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 74.6 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the west and northwest is expected on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late Monday and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Oscar interacts with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas Monday into Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Wednesday morning. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 210244 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 74.6W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 74.6W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.4N 75.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.9N 75.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.9N 74.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.4N 73.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.3N 70.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 74.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART