Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 201455 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 8(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) MAYAGUANA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) GRAND TURK 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 46 16(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 201453 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 73.9W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 73.9W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 73.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 74.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 75.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 76.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 75.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 73.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 73.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...NADINE DISSIPATED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING STILL EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF BELIZE, GUATEMALA, AND MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 the center of Nadine was located near 16.5, -93.0 with movement WSW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 797 WTNT35 KNHC 201440 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Remnants Of Nadine Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...NADINE DISSIPATED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING STILL EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF BELIZE, GUATEMALA, AND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 93.0W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Nadine were located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 93.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and they are expected to move into the eastern Pacific later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in the formation of a new low pressure system off the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. Additional development is expected after that time, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle part of this week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico. For additional information on the remnants of Nadine please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php, and the latest updates in the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook on the web at hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the remnants of Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated areas up to 12 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas and Tabasco into Veracruz and Oaxaca through Tuesday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches, are expected for the remaining portions of southeastern Mexico into Guatemala and Belize. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with the remnants Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Landsea

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 14:48:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 15:22:48 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 801 FONT15 KNHC 201440 PWSAT5 REMNANTS OF NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF NADINE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS ...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 011 WTNT45 KNHC 201442 TCDAT5 Remnants Of Nadine Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 First-light GOES-16 imagery and station observations suggest that the surface circulation associated with Nadine has dissipated over southern Mexico. Peak sustained winds remain 25 kt, mainly over the Bay of Campeche. The remnants of Nadine are moving toward the west-southwest at around 12 kt and they are expected to move into the eastern Pacific later today. The combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in the formation of a new low pressure system off the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. Additional development is expected after that time, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle part of this week while the system moves westward at about 15 kt away from the coast of Mexico. For additional information on the remnants of Nadine as it enters the eastern Pacific please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php, and the latest updates in the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook on the web at hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac. Key Messages: 1. Localized areas of flash flooding will remain possible in the vicinity of the remnants of Nadine across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexico through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 16.5N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 201439 TCMAT5 REMNANTS OF NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 93.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 93.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 93.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201157
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nadine, located inland over the Mexican state of Chiapas,
and on Hurricane Oscar, located just southwest of the coast of the
Inagua Islands in the southeastern Bahamas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 11:54:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 09:28:32 GMT

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS OSCAR JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO REACH GUANTANAMO OR HOLGUIN CUBA AS A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 the center of Oscar was located near 20.8, -73.6 with movement WSW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 201154 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS OSCAR JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO REACH GUANTANAMO OR HOLGUIN CUBA AS A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 73.6W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the the Turks and Caicos Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. Tropical storm watches could be required for this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 73.6 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A continued west-southwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar will move away from Great Inagua later this morning before making landfall along the northeastern coast of Cuba later this afternoon or evening. The system is then expected to move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar will then accelerate northeastward across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds as recently reported by Air Force Reconnaissance data remains near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Oscar is expected to reach the northeastern coast of Cuba as a hurricane later this afternoon. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and moves across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The minimum central pressure measured by aircraft dropsonde data is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great Inagua Island, through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba late this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba this afternoon into Monday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf . STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 08:45:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 09:28:32 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 200844 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Animation of 1-minute GOES infrared satellite images indicates that Oscar's center has made landfall on the eastern side of Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas. Small convective bursts have occasionally been noted close to the center during the overnight hours, suggesting that the hurricane still has a very tight inner core. Overall, the satellite presentation is not quite as well organized as it was yesterday afternoon, and with the small core now over Great Inagua, the estimated intensity is lowered slightly to 70 kt--albeit with a very large error bar. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate Oscar in a few hours. Oscar is moving south of due west (260 degrees), still at about 10 kt. Due to strong mid-level ridging to the north and west, Oscar is forecast to turn west-southwestward this morning, which will bring the center to the coast of northeastern Cuba later this afternoon. The ridge is expected to be replaced by a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the western Atlantic in 24-48 hours, which should cause Oscar to turn westward and then northward while inland over Cuba on Monday. Oscar is then forecast to accelerate northeastward over the central Bahamas on Tuesday ahead of the trough. The NHC track forecast is very close to the HCCA consensus aid for the first 36 hours of the forecast, and then more closely follows a blend of HCCA with TVCA after that time. This forecast is not too different from the previous prediction. Oscar's small size will continue to make it susceptible to intensity fluctuations, but the cyclone is expected to reach northeastern Cuba as a hurricane later this afternoon. That small size will also make the core vulnerable to being heavily disrupted by the terrain of eastern Cuba, which rises several thousand feet above sea level. Because of this, the GFS and ECMWF global fields in particular show Oscar's circulation becoming less compact and less well defined in about 36 hours. Oscar is forecast to weaken over Cuba, but it could still be a tropical storm when it emerges back over the Atlantic and moves across the central Bahamas in 2-3 days. Alternatively, it's also possible the Oscar could degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate entirely while over eastern Cuba. If Oscar does survive Cuba, it is likely to be absorbed by a larger non-tropical area of low pressure over the western Atlantic, and the new NHC forecast therefore shows dissipation by day 4. Key Messages: 1. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and for a portion of the northeastern coast of Cuba. 2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions of the southeastern Bahamas this morning, especially Great Inagua Island, and along the north shore of Cuba later this afternoon and evening. 3. Heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of flash flooding along with possible mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra, through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 21.1N 73.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 20.6N 74.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 20.4N 75.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1800Z 20.8N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0600Z 21.7N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 22/1800Z 22.7N 75.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 23.8N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

...OSCAR MAKES LANDFALL ON GREAT INAGUA ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO REACH GUANTANAMO OR HOLGUIN CUBA AS A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 the center of Oscar was located near 21.1, -73.1 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 200844 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...OSCAR MAKES LANDFALL ON GREAT INAGUA ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO REACH GUANTANAMO OR HOLGUIN CUBA AS A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 73.1W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. Tropical storm watches could be required for this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 73.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-southwestward or westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar will move across Great Inagua this morning, make landfall along the northeastern coast of Cuba later this afternoon or evening, and then move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar will then accelerate northeastward across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Oscar is forecast to reach the northeastern coast of Cuba as a hurricane later this afternoon. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and moves across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great Inagua Island, through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba late this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba this afternoon into Monday. Tropical storm conditions will diminish across the Turks and Caicos Islands this morning. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf . STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 200844 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ANDROS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 6(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) MAYAGUANA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 5 41(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 161 WTNT21 KNHC 200843 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 73.1W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 73.1W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.6N 74.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 75.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.8N 76.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.7N 76.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.7N 75.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.8N 74.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 73.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 08:42:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 09:22:43 GMT

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200841 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Nadine Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Mexican radar data and GOES-16 nighttime visible imagery show that Nadine still has enough structure to it for the system to remain a tropical depression at this time. The coverage of cold cloud tops on infrared imagery has certainly diminished over the past 6 to 12 h, although there are still some cold cloud tops over the center and in the southwest semicircle. The center of Nadine is moving over increasingly higher terrain of the Mexican state of Chiapas, with the peaks of some nearby mountains now as high as 5,000 ft above sea level. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest, or 255/12 kt. The forecast shows the system accelerating slightly and bending a bit more toward the southwest this morning. This motion would bring Nadine toward terrain of about 8,000 to 9,000 ft above sea level in about 6 hours. Terrain of that height is likely to break apart Nadine's low-level circulation, which should cause the cyclone to dissipate later this morning. A remnant low position is provided at 12 hours for continuity, but Nadine will likely have dissipated by that time. Key Messages: 1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 16.8N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/1800Z 15.7N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen