000
ABNT20 KNHC 140535
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located north of Puerto Rico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 03:01:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 03:23:06 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 02:49:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 02:49:21 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 733 WTNT45 KNHC 140247 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 Aircraft data, surface observations, and NWS radar images indicate Ernesto passed over the Virgin Islands around 00 UTC this evening. The tropical cyclone remains asymmetric, as NOAA Tail Doppler Radar data show the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall are generally confined to the northern and eastern semicircles of the storm. Data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate the central pressure of Ernesto has fallen to around 998-999 mb, and an earlier aircraft pass through the eastern part of the storm found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 60 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt, which matches the latest Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The latest aircraft fixes and radar data show Ernesto has turned northwestward (305/15 kt). Overnight, Ernesto will move away from the Virgin Islands and pass to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico. Then, Ernesto is expected to move northwestward to northward during the next couple of days toward a break in the subtropical ridge. By late week, the influence of a deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic should cause Ernesto to turn north-northeastward, although the cyclone is forecast to slow down a bit after the trough passes to its north. There are no notable changes to the NHC track forecast, with Ernesto forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Friday night into Saturday. The radar structure of Ernesto indicates it has not yet solidified an inner core. However, once this occurs, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear conducive for significant strengthening over the next few days. Most of the hurricane regional models and statistical guidance show Ernesto becoming a major hurricane over the western Atlantic late this week, and the global models (particularly the GFS) show significant deepening of the low. Based on the latest guidance trends, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised slightly during the middle portion of the forecast period and now shows Ernesto becoming a major hurricane on Friday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday, with hurricane conditions possible on the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto Rico tonight through Wednesday. 3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. 4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and then reach the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 18.8N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 20.3N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 22.4N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 28.1N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 29.9N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 38.0N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 945 FONT15 KNHC 140246 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 40(77) 5(82) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 34(44) 4(48) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 3(28) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 1(12) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AGUADILLA PR 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VIEQUES PR 34 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT JOHN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT JOHN 50 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) SAINT CROIX 34 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 13 the center of Ernesto was located near 18.8, -65.3 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 566 WTNT35 KNHC 140245 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 65.3W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques and Culebra A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case through tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected on Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico through early Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. Henry E. Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch area during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells will reach the Dominican Republic overnight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 358 WTNT25 KNHC 140245 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 65.3W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 65.3W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 64.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.3N 66.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.4N 68.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.1N 67.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.9N 66.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 38.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 65.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 132352
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located near the Virgin Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 23:51:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 21:23:04 GMT

...ERNESTO MOVING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO... As of 8:00 PM AST Tue Aug 13 the center of Ernesto was located near 18.4, -64.7 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 132350 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...ERNESTO MOVING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 64.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla. The government of Sint Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten. The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques and Culebra A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case through tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 64.7 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto should pass just to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico tonight and on Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday and Friday night. Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days. Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service station in Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas, recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches) based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands from St. Kitts and Nevis to St. Martin and across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the Virgin Islands and will spread over Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra tonight. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells will reach the Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are also expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 20:49:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 21:23:04 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 012 WTNT45 KNHC 132047 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 Ernesto's structure continues to gradually increase in organization. There has been some indication of dry air within the circulation and possibly some westerly shear--likely related to the system's continued fast motion--but the maximum winds have been increasing during the day nonetheless. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt and believable SFMR winds of 45-50 kt northeast of the center, and dropsonde data showed that the central pressure had fallen to 1001 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt. Some satellite estimates suggest the intensity could be slightly higher, but there will be both Air Force and NOAA aircraft in the storm later this evening to confirm these trends. The recent aircraft fixes indicate that Ernesto continues to turn to the right and is moving west-northwestward, or 300/16 kt. This turn is expected to continue for the next couple of days as Ernesto moves toward a break in the western Atlantic subtropical ridge. On this track, Ernesto's center should pass over the Virgin Islands later this evening and then pass northeast and north of Puerto Rico overnight and on Wednesday. A northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast after 48 hours as Ernesto interacts with a deep-layer trough off the U.S. East Coast, but this trough ends up bypassing Ernesto, resulting in the storm slowing down a bit when it is in the vicinity of Bermuda. The track guidance continues to be very consistent, and again no significant changes were required to the official track forecast compared to the previous issuance. Very warm sea surface temperatures and generally low shear favor continued strengthening over the next few days. SHIPS and the HFIP Corrected Consensus models continue to suggest that Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by 12 hours, and several of the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are still well above climatology. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast shows Ernesto becoming a hurricane by tonight and then peaking at an intensity at or just below major hurricane strength in 60-72 hours. Since there is some chance of Ernesto becoming a hurricane while it is near the Virgin Islands, a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the northern Leeward Islands this evening and spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this evening and tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques this evening and tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through this evening, and over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by this evening through Wednesday. 3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. 4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days and then reach the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 18.0N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 19.3N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 21.3N 67.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 23.4N 68.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 25.4N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 29.1N 66.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 32.7N 65.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 36.8N 64.1W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 132046 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 47(65) 9(74) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 8(41) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) 1(14) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PONCE PR 34 10 7(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) AGUADILLA PR 34 8 8(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAN JUAN PR 34 50 3(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) VIEQUES PR 34 72 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) VIEQUES PR 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 50 X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) SAINT THOMAS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT JOHN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT JOHN 50 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SAINT JOHN 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 68 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) SAINT MAARTEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST EUSTATIUS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 13 the center of Ernesto was located near 18.0, -64.1 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 132046 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 64.1W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Montserrat. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * Saba and Sint Eustatius * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques and Culebra A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case through tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 64.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto should pass near or over the Virgin Islands this evening, and then pass just to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico tonight and on Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and be near Bermuda by Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by tonight to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at St. Martin. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands from St. Kitts and Nevis to St. Martin and across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area in the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this evening and tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible over the Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra this evening into tonight. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells will then reach the Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are also expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 132046 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 64.1W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 64.1W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 63.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.3N 65.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.3N 67.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.4N 68.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.4N 68.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.1N 66.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 32.7N 65.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 36.8N 64.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 64.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 17:50:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 15:23:16 GMT

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERNESTO STILL STRENGTHENING... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN A FEW HOURS... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Aug 13 the center of Ernesto was located near 17.5, -63.5 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.