Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 151456 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 Dry air appears to be disrupting Ernesto's attempts to become more organized. Recent microwave satellite imagery has shown a large dry slot wrapping into the center of the hurricane. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating Ernesto has found peak flight-level winds of 87 kt and an expanded surface wind field. Normally, this elevated wind would reduce to a surface wind speed of 75-80 kt, however, given the broad nature of the storm and lack of inner-core organization, these winds may not be mixing down as efficiently as usual. The initial intensity remains at 75 kt for this advisory. Ernesto is moving to the north at about 12 kt. The model guidance is tightly clustered and shows the hurricane turning to the northeast within a day or so while moving through a break in the subtropical ridge towards a trough located off the coast of the eastern United States. As the trough lifts by the weekend, Ernesto should slow and turn to the north-northeast or north, while approaching Bermuda on Friday night and Saturday. By the end of the weekend, Ernesto is expected to accelerate northeastward near the coast of Atlantic Canada. There have been little changes to the most recent NHC track forecast, which lies just west of the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. Model guidance is still suggesting that some continued gradual strengthening is possible in the next day or so. The deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to be weak to moderate, and Ernesto should be over warm waters for the next few days. However, the broad nature of the current circulation, coupled with some dry air ingestion, will likely slow the intensification rate. Ernesto is now forecast to peak at 95 kt in 24 h, which is near the top of the model guidance envelope. Beyond a day, the shear is expected to increase and induce gradually weakening, though the warm waters and positive interaction with the upper-level trough will likely allow Ernesto remain a powerful hurricane as it moves north of Bermuda. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to approach Bermuda late Friday and be near the island Saturday and Saturday night. A prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge is expected on Bermuda beginning late Friday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect Bermuda later today and may result in flash flooding Friday through this weekend. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the area during the next few days, including over the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 25.0N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 30.3N 66.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 33.6N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 35.6N 64.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 41.6N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 48.6N 48.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 151456 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 10(24) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 17(51) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X 4( 4) 39(43) 40(83) 8(91) X(91) X(91) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 45(53) 14(67) X(67) X(67) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 12(40) X(40) X(40) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/ONDERLINDE

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... ...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 25.0, -69.2 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 151455 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... ...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 69.2W ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 69.2 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or north-northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength by Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. A Saildrone just north of the center measured sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 649 WTNT25 KNHC 151455 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 69.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 69.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 69.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 10SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.3N 66.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.6N 65.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.6N 64.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 41.6N 60.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 48.6N 48.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 69.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/ONDERLINDE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 11:54:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 09:23:15 GMT

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... As of 8:00 AM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 24.5, -69.3 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 206 WTNT35 KNHC 151149 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 69.3W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 69.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.79 inches) based on data from a dropsonde. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 09:01:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 09:23:15 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150858 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 Ernesto has strengthened overnight. Satellite images show that a more symmetric area of deep convection has formed near the center, with a rather large curved band wrapping in all quadrants of the hurricane. The initial intensity is set to 75 kt, matching the TAFB and SAB estimates, though recent imagery suggests that could be a little conservative. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to be in the hurricane in a few hours. Ernesto has turned northward and is moving at about 11 kt. The models remain in good agreement that the hurricane should turn to the northeast during the next day or so while moving through a break in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic towards a mid-latitude trough. However, the trough departs by the weekend, causing Ernesto to move slower to the north-northeast or north while the hurricane approaches Bermuda Friday night and Saturday. Later this weekend, a second trough will move across the eastern U.S., and Ernesto should accelerate northeastward early next week within the deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one as the track guidance remains in good overall agreement. While the shear near Ernesto remains low, a large dry slot continues to wrap near the core, preventing anything other than slow intensification so far. Most of the guidance gradually intensifies the system during the next day or so as the very warm waters and light-to-moderate shear outweigh the effects of the dry air. Little change was made to the intensity forecast, and all of the guidance show this system as a large hurricane near Bermuda. There remains some indications that positive interactions with the second upper trough and warmer than normal waters should cause the system to keep much of its strength north of Bermuda, and the new forecast reflects this. All of the guidance now show Ernesto as post-tropical by 120 h, and so does the NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to approach Bermuda late Friday and be near the island Saturday and Saturday night. A prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge is expected on Bermuda beginning late Friday, and a hurricane warning has been issued for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect Bermuda later today and may result in flash flooding Friday through this weekend. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 23.9N 69.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 25.4N 69.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 27.4N 68.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 29.3N 66.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 31.1N 65.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 32.6N 65.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 34.3N 65.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 39.7N 62.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 47.0N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 23.9, -69.1 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150855 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 69.1W ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 69.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a slower northeastward or northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). NOAA buoy 41046, located about 20 miles north of Ernesto, recently reported a minimum central pressure of 987.4 mb (29.16 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 150855 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 35(50) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 17(17) 53(70) 22(92) 1(93) X(93) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 32(67) 1(68) X(68) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42) 1(43) X(43) MAYAGUANA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150854 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 69.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 150SW 165NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 69.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.4N 69.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.4N 68.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.3N 66.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.1N 65.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 55SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.6N 65.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.3N 65.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 39.7N 62.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N 52.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 69.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERNESTO IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 23.3, -69.1 with movement NNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150548 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERNESTO IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 69.1W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 69.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower northward to northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). NOAA buoy 41046, located about 40 miles north of Ernesto, recently reported a wind gust to 57 mph (91 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 997.9 mb (29.47 inches). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 05:48:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 03:23:06 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150518
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located a couple of hundred miles northeast of the Turks
and Caicos Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 02:45:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 03:23:06 GMT