Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150242 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 The satellite structure of Ernesto has somewhat improved tonight. A series of earlier SSMI/S 91 GHz passive microwave images showed the formation of a mid-level eye, and there have been recent hints of an eye trying to emerge in proxy-visible satellite images. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has fallen to 982 mb, and the aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 76 kt in the northeast quadrant. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 70 kt. The wind field remains quite broad and asymmetric, with the strongest aircraft winds well to the northeast of the center. The next aircraft reconnaissance mission into Ernesto is scheduled for tomorrow morning. Ernesto is now moving north-northwestward at 330/14 kt. The hurricane will continue on a north-northwestward to northward motion during the next day or so while moving through a break in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. The global models agree the upper trough that weakened the ridge will not capture Ernesto. As a result, Ernesto will move slower to the north-northeast and north while the hurricane approaches and moves near Bermuda Friday night and Saturday. Later this weekend, a second trough will move across the eastern U.S., and Ernesto should accelerate northeastward early next week within the deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, as the track guidance remains in good overall agreement. It is still too soon to know exactly how close Ernesto's center will move to Bermuda this weekend, but warnings will likely be required for the island on Thursday. While there is still evidence of some drier air nearby Ernesto, the very warm ocean waters and weak to moderate shear should promote some strengthening during the next couple of days. This is supported by the bulk of the intensity guidance, and the regional hurricane models still favor Ernesto reaching major hurricane intensity on Friday. The latest NHC prediction remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP corrected consensus. Some gradual weakening is forecast thereafter as Ernesto moves into a drier, more sheared environment. There are some indications that positive interaction with the second upper trough could cause Ernesto's intensity to level off or even slightly increase during the 60-96 h time period while still over warm waters. By 120 h, the model fields suggest Ernesto will be on the verge of losing tropical characteristics while accelerating over cooler waters. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda on Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. Rainfall associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda late Thursday and result in flash flooding across Bermuda later this week and this weekend. 2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 23.0N 68.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 24.7N 69.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 26.8N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 28.6N 67.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 30.5N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 32.2N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 34.0N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 38.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 150241 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 39(46) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 43(51) 38(89) 2(91) X(91) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 46(62) 2(64) X(64) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 1(39) X(39) MAYAGUANA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE APPROACHING BERMUDA... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 14 the center of Ernesto was located near 23.0, -68.9 with movement NNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150241 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE APPROACHING BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 68.9W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 68.9 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a slower northward to northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 512 WTNT25 KNHC 150240 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 68.9W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 165NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 68.9W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 68.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.7N 69.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.8N 68.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N 67.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 55SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 66.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 55SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.2N 65.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 65.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 38.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 68.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERNESTO IS STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Aug 14 the center of Ernesto was located near 22.4, -68.7 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 142350 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERNESTO IS STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 68.7W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday. A northward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is expected Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday. Data from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches) based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. Rainfall is expected to diminish this evening across Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Total rainfall amounts from Ernesto are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern to eastern Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico, and 4 to 6 inches across the U.S and British Virgin Islands. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 23:50:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 21:23:23 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142344
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located a couple of hundred miles east of the Turks and
Caicos Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 20:45:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 21:23:23 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 142042 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 Visible satellite imagery shows that Ernesto's cloud field is gradually expanding, and there have been hints of an eye potentially forming in the Central Dense Overcast. The Air Force Reserve mission from a few hours ago found that the central pressure had fallen to 989 mb, but there were no indications that the maximum winds were any higher than 65 kt. The initial intensity is therefore held at that level, which is also supported by the latest satellite intensity estimates. Ernesto is still moving northwestward but continues to turn to the right, and the initial motion is 325/14 kt. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday as the hurricane moves through a break in the subtropical ridge, but the trough causing this break is forecast to leave Ernesto behind later in the week. The result is that Ernesto is likely to slow down while it passes very near Bermuda Friday night and Saturday. Thereafter, a second trough approaching from the west should cause Ernesto to accelerate toward the northeast, near or just south of Atlantic Canada. The track models are in very good agreement on this scenario, but there is a bit of east-to-west spread after 48 hours. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged eastward after 48 hours to be close to the multi-model consensus aids, although at this time it is too soon to know exactly how close Ernesto's center will move to Bermuda this weekend. An environment of warm ocean waters (around 29 degrees Celsius) and low to moderate shear should allow Ernesto to strengthen gradually during the next few days. Most of the intensity models indicate that the hurricane should peak in intensity in about 48 hours. At that time, the official forecast shows a peak of 100 kt--major hurricane--which is near the top end of the guidance and close to the HAFS-B, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA models. A weakening trend should begin after 48 hours due to moderate shear and a drier, more stable atmosphere, but the weakening is likely to be gradual. As a result, the official forecast keeps Ernesto as a hurricane throughout the 5-day forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda on Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. Rainfall associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda as early as Thursday and result in flash flooding across Bermuda later in the week and this weekend. 2. Heavy rainfall will be diminishing across Puerto Rico into the Virgin Islands this evening. Locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides will continue through tonight over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto Rico. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 21.7N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 23.5N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 25.7N 69.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 27.7N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 31.3N 65.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 37.0N 64.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 43.4N 58.2W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 164 FONT15 KNHC 142042 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 58(83) 6(89) X(89) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 51(54) 7(61) X(61) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 5(38) X(38) MAYAGUANA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 14 the center of Ernesto was located near 21.7, -68.3 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 142041 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 68.3W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 68.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday. A northward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is expected Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. Rainfall is expected to diminish this evening across Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Total rainfall amounts from Ernesto are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern to eastern Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico, and 4 to 6 inches across the U.S and British Virgin Islands. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells will reach the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 142041 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 68.3W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 68.3W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 68.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.7N 69.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.7N 68.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.3N 65.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 37.0N 64.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.4N 58.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 68.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 240 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

334
ABNT20 KNHC 141752
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Ernesto, located a couple of hundred miles
northwest of Puerto Rico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 17:50:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 15:23:10 GMT

...FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO ONGOING HEAVY RAINS... As of 2:00 PM AST Wed Aug 14 the center of Ernesto was located near 21.1, -68.0 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 141749 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 ...FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO ONGOING HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 68.0W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have been discontinued. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A hurricane watch may be required for the island later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 68.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight, with a generally northward motion at a slower forward speed continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will continue to move away from Puerto Rico today, move across the western Atlantic during the next few days, and approach Bermuda Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent dropsonde data is 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. Rainfall associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Gusty winds will continue across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through rest of today. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells will reach the southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg