Weather

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Thu, 09/19/2024 - 12:40pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191740
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of showers and thunderstorms located over the central
subtropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of Gordon.
Some development of this system is possible while it moves northward
or north-northeastward over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 750 miles southeast of
Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive, but some
development of this system is possible while it meanders over the
open waters of the central or western Subtropical Atlantic though
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Categories: Weather

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Thu, 09/19/2024 - 6:40am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the
central subtropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of
Gordon. Some development of this system is possible while it
moves generally northward over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 750 miles southeast of
Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive, but some
development of this system is possible while it meanders over the
open waters of the central or western Subtropical Atlantic though
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico
through the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Categories: Weather

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Thu, 09/19/2024 - 12:45am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190545
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the
central tropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of Gordon.
This system is forecast to interact with another area of low
pressure to its west while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
during the next couple of days. While environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive for additional development by the
end of this week, a tropical depression or storm could still re-form
in a few days while the system moves slowly northward over the
central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased tonight with a
well-defined area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the
northwest of the remnants of Gordon. Environmental conditions appear
only marginally conducive, but some additional development of this
system is possible as it meanders over the open waters of the
central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the
north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
Categories: Weather

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Wed, 09/18/2024 - 6:26pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 182325
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the central tropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of
Gordon. This system is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low
to its northwest while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development later this week, and a
tropical depression or storm could re-form in a few days while the
system moves slowly northward over the central subtropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible through
the middle of next week while it moves slowly to the north or
northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Categories: Weather

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Wed, 09/18/2024 - 12:52pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181752
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the central tropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of
Gordon. This system is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low
to its northwest while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development later this week, and a
tropical depression or storm could re-form in a few days while the
system moves slowly northward over the central subtropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some
slow development of this system is possible through the middle
of next week while it moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Categories: Weather

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Wed, 09/18/2024 - 6:31am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized over the central
tropical Atlantic in association with the remnants of Gordon. This
system is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low to its
northwest while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph during the
next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development later this week, and a tropical depression
or storm could re-form in a few days while the system moves slowly
northward over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some
slow development of this system is possible through the middle
of next week while it moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Categories: Weather

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Wed, 09/18/2024 - 12:11am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180511
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized over the central
tropical Atlantic in association with the remnants of Gordon. This
system is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low to its north
while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph during the next
couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more conducive
for development later this week, and a tropical depression or storm
could re-form in a few days while the system moves slowly northward
over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could form this weekend over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of
this system is possible through early next week while it moves
slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
Categories: Weather

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Tue, 09/17/2024 - 6:20pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 172320
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical
Atlantic are associated with the remnants of Gordon. This
disturbance is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low to its
north while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph during the
next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development later this week, and a tropical depression
or storm could re-form in a few days while the system moves slowly
northward over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend over the western
Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is
possible through early next week while the system moves slowly to
the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
Categories: Weather

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Tue, 09/17/2024 - 12:30pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171729
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
the remnants of Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon)
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical
Atlantic are associated with the remnants of Gordon. This
disturbance is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low to its
north while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph during the
next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for redevelopment later this week, and a tropical
depression or storm could form by this weekend while the system
moves slowly northward over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Categories: Weather

Remnants of Gordon Graphics

National Hurricane Center - Tue, 09/17/2024 - 10:01am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 15:01:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 15:22:41 GMT
Categories: Weather

Remnants of Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 25

National Hurricane Center - Tue, 09/17/2024 - 10:00am
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 095 WTNT42 KNHC 171500 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Gordon Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 Gordon is no longer a tropical cyclone. The convective structure has degraded since the overnight hours, with only small bursts of convection occurring to the south and east of the estimated center position. More importantly, recent scatterometer data indicate the system does not possess a well-defined, trackable center, with an elongated structure more indicative of a trough of low pressure. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on the remnants of Gordon. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the scatterometer data, although this could be generous. The remnants are expected to move northward to north-northeastward over open waters during the next few days while rotating around a non-tropical low currently positioned to its north. While the structure is unlikely to improve in the short term, there are indications in the global models that the remnants of Gordon could redevelop later this week once the system moves into a more moist environment and gains some distance from the nearby frontal low. NHC will continue to monitor the remnants of Gordon for signs of organization and the possibility of redevelopment later this week. Information on the potential for regeneration will be contained in the Tropical Weather Outlook. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 19.5N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF GORDON 12H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Categories: Weather

Remnants of Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

National Hurricane Center - Tue, 09/17/2024 - 9:58am
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 530 FONT12 KNHC 171458 PWSAT2 REMNANTS OF GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF GORDON WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS ...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Categories: Weather

Summary for Remnants of Gordon (AT2/AL072024)

National Hurricane Center - Tue, 09/17/2024 - 9:58am
...GORDON DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 17 the center of Gordon was located near 19.5, -49.1 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Categories: Weather

Remnants of Gordon Public Advisory Number 25

National Hurricane Center - Tue, 09/17/2024 - 9:58am
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 351 WTNT32 KNHC 171458 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Gordon Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 ...GORDON DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 49.1W ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Gordon were located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 49.1 West. The remnants are moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). The remnants are forecast to move northward to north-northeastward at a similar forward speed for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Categories: Weather

Remnants of Gordon Forecast Advisory Number 25

National Hurricane Center - Tue, 09/17/2024 - 9:58am
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 171457 TCMAT2 REMNANTS OF GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 49.1W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 49.1W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 49.1W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 49.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Categories: Weather

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Tue, 09/17/2024 - 6:28am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Categories: Weather

Tropical Depression Gordon Graphics

National Hurricane Center - Tue, 09/17/2024 - 3:46am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 08:46:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 09:23:11 GMT
Categories: Weather

Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 24

National Hurricane Center - Tue, 09/17/2024 - 3:45am
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170845 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 After becoming a bit better organized Monday evening with persistent deep convection over the low-level center, Gordon's convective organization has been steady during the overnight hours. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 25-35 kt, while recent objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 31-36 kt range. Based on these intensity estimates as well as taking into account earlier ASCAT data, Gordon's intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The ASCAT passes Monday evening helped locate the center, but the center has been difficult to find since that time. Recent satellite images suggest that the center may be near the northern edge of the central convective area. The motion is still estimated to be westward, or 265/3 kt, but models indicate that the northward turn should begin within the next few hours. A frontal low currently located several hundred miles north of Gordon has created a weakness in the subtropical ridge, which will induce a northward and then a north-northeastward motion at an increasing forward speed during the next couple of days. Gordon should pass east of this feature Wednesday night or Thursday as it is steered by mid-level high pressure to the east of the cyclone. Some of the global models show this ridge building to the northeast of Gordon, which could cause Gordon to bend more toward the north in 4 to 5 days. There are significant speed differences as well as cross-track spread at days 4 and 5. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one through 48 h, but is nudged to the west of the previous official forecast beyond 48 h, closer to the latest consensus aids. During the 3 to 5 day time period, the NHC forecast is slower than the latest GFS model and well to the east of the latest ECMWF global model. Gordon's intensity forecast is challenging. Environmental conditions appear moist enough for Gordon to at least maintain its intensity during the next couple of days, given the weak vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, global models do not show Gordon intensifying much during the next couple of days as the cyclone interacts with a weakening non-tropical low, currently located north of Gordon. Some strengthening is likely once Gordon moves past this feature, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty in what the upper-level winds will look like over the cyclone in the day 3 to 5 period. The GFS model shows moderate southwesterly shear during that time, whereas the ECMWF and other global models suggest stronger shear from the west or northwest, which would be a less favorable direction and would likely prevent further strengthening. As a result, there is a large spread in the intensity guidance, leading to below average confidence in the NHC intensity forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and remains near the low end of the intensity guidance through the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 19.0N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 19.5N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 20.4N 48.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 21.7N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 23.3N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 25.1N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 26.3N 45.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 27.6N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 30.0N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
Categories: Weather

Summary for Tropical Depression Gordon (AT2/AL072024)

National Hurricane Center - Tue, 09/17/2024 - 3:38am
...GORDON EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 17 the center of Gordon was located near 19.0, -49.0 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Categories: Weather

Tropical Depression Gordon Public Advisory Number 24

National Hurricane Center - Tue, 09/17/2024 - 3:38am
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 170838 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 ...GORDON EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 49.0W ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 49.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon could gradually re-intensify and become a tropical storm again later this week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Categories: Weather
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