Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231459 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 82.0W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, and a Hurricane Watch from Cabo Catoche to Tulum. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Isle of Youth, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and a Hurricane Watch for Pinar del Rio. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward or north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will spread into the Southeast U.S. starting on Wednesday and continuing through Friday, bringing a risk of flash and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 231459 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 2(23) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 2(46) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 1(30) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 37(44) 1(45) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 1(29) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 1(37) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 1(21) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) 1(31) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) X(29) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 16(29) 1(30) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 1(23) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 3(19) X(19) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 2(25) X(25) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 6(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) X(20) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 11(53) X(53) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 20(58) 1(59) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) X(23) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 34(66) 1(67) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) X(31) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 34(43) 1(44) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 37(48) X(48) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 34(66) X(66) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) 1(36) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 28(73) 1(74) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 27(44) X(44) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) X(23) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 29(54) X(54) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) X(30) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 13(42) X(42) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 17(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 35(65) 8(73) X(73) X(73) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) 1(11) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 231458 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 82.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 82.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 81.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...220NE 210SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 82.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for further development of this system. A tropical
depression or storm is likely to form within the next day or two as
the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where additional development
is expected.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
system, as watches or warnings will likely be required later
this morning for portions of these areas. Later this week, the
system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern
Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between western Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the middle to latter part of this week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230543
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of
organization with a broad area of low pressure located over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression or storm is likely to form over the next couple of days
as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico where additional
development is possible.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
system. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the
northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also closely monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between western Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the middle to latter part of this week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 222321
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few
days while the system moves northward across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless
of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains
over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the
northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located near the west coast of Africa.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle
to latter part of the week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

956
ABNT20 KNHC 221754
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in association with an
area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of
Bermuda. Development of this system is not expected due to dry air
and increasing upper-level winds during the next couple of days
while the low moves generally northward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while
moving northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next
several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the
progress of this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to
move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and interests
along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move
westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of
the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221151
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda has not
become better organized since yesterday. Although the low remains
embedded in a very dry environment, a short-lived tropical
depression cannot be ruled out if showers and thunderstorms become
better organized while the system moves generally northward at 5 to
10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
very broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system during the next
several days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the
system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move
westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of
the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220515
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of
Bermuda continues to produce showers and thunderstorms north of its
center. Although environmental conditions are not very favorable
for development, a short-lived tropical depression can not be ruled
out if showers and thunderstorms become better organized while the
system moves generally northward at 5 to 10 mph over the central
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form during the next few
days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions
of Central America. Thereafter, gradual development of this system
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the
system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa over the next few days. Gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
during the middle to latter part of the week while the wave moves
westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

087
ABNT20 KNHC 212330
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles southeast of
Bermuda continues to produce a small cluster of showers and
thunderstorms northeast of its center. However, the low is
embedded in a very dry environment, and therefore significant
development is not expected while it moves generally northward at 5
to 10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure should form during the next few days
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of
Central America. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system
moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday. Gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form next week
while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211748
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Strong upper-level winds continue to keep showers displaced well
to the east of an area of low pressure (the remnants of Gordon)
located over one thousand miles southwest of the Azores.
Development of this system is not expected while it moves slowly
northwestward over the central subtropical Atlantic during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles southeast of
Bermuda continues to produce a small cluster of showers and
thunderstorms northeast of its center. However, the low is
embedded in a very dry environment, and therefore significant
development is not expected while it moves generally northward at 5
to 10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form by the early to
middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly northward across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of
next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday. Gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form next week
while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211152
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Strong upper-level winds continue to keep showers and thunderstorms
displaced away from the center of an area of low pressure (the
remnants of Gordon) located over one thousand miles southwest of the
Azores. Significant development of this system is not expected
while it moves slowly northwestward over the central subtropical
Atlantic during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions do not appear
conducive for significant development of this system during the next
couple of days while it drifts northwestward and then northward at
about 5 mph over the central or western subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form by the early to
middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of
Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of development,
this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of
Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday. Gradual development of this system is
possible next week as it moves west-northwestward over the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210510
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Strong upper-level winds continue to keep showers and thunderstorms
displaced away from the center of an area of low pressure (the
remnants of Gordon) located over a thousand miles southwest of the
Azores. Significant development of this system is not expected
while it meanders over the central subtropical Atlantic during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing showers and a few
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions do not appear conducive
for significant development of this system during the next couple of
days while it drifts northwestward at about 5 mph over the central
or western subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday. Gradual subsequent development of this
system is possible next week as it moves west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Strong upper-level winds are keeping showers and thunderstorms
displaced away from the center of an area of low pressure (the
remnants of Gordon) located over a thousand miles southwest of the
Azores. Significant development of this system is not expected
while it meanders over the central subtropical Atlantic
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 675 miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and a
few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions do not appear conducive
for significant development of this system during the next couple of
days while it drifts northwestward at about 5 mph over the central
or western subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter,
gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or
northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201755
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Showers and thunderstorms have been displaced farther away from the
center of an area of low pressure (the remnants of Gordon) located
over a thousand miles southwest of the Azores due to strong
upper-level winds. Significant development of this system is
not expected while it meanders over the central subtropical Atlantic
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 650 miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and a
few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions do not appear conducive
for significant development of this system during the next couple of
days while it drifts northwestward at about 5 mph over the central
or western subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter,
gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or
northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201142
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Gordon, is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms more than a
thousand miles southwest of the Azores. Due to strong upper-level
winds, any additional development of this system is expected to be
slow to occur while it meanders over the central subtropical
Atlantic during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 650 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has
changed little in organization over the past several hours.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
drifts northwestward at about 5 mph over the central or western
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter,
gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or
northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

677
ABNT20 KNHC 200515
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Recent satellite wind data shows that an area of low pressure has
formed in association with the remnants of Gordon. However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is poorly organized.
Some additional development of this system is possible during the
next day or two while it moves northward or north-northeastward.
After that time, conditions are expected to become less conducive
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 750 miles southeast of Bermuda has changed little in
organization over the past several hours. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive, but some development of this
system is possible while it meanders over the open waters of the
central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

873
ABNT20 KNHC 200515
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Recent satellite wind data shows that an area of low pressure has
formed in association with the remnants of Gordon. However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is poorly organized.
Some additional development of this system is possible during the
next day or two while it moves northward or north-northeastward.
After that time, conditions are expected to become less conducive
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 750 miles southeast of Bermuda has changed little in
organization over the past several hours. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive, but some development of this
system is possible while it meanders over the open waters of the
central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200515
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Recent satellite wind data shows that an area of low pressure has
formed in association with the remnants of Gordon. However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is poorly organized.
Some additional development of this system is possible during the
next day or two while it moves northward or north-northeastward.
After that time, conditions are expected to become less conducive
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 750 miles southeast of Bermuda has changed little in
organization over the past several hours. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive, but some development of this
system is possible while it meanders over the open waters of the
central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of showers and thunderstorms located over the central
subtropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of Gordon.
Some development of this system is possible during the next
couple of days while it moves northward or north-northeastward .
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 750 miles southeast of Bermuda has become a little more
concentrated over the past several hours. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive, but some development of this
system is possible while it meanders over the open waters of the
central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven