Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 240238 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) X(25) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 14(37) X(37) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) X(35) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 18(29) X(29) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) X(26) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 7(57) X(57) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 11(50) X(50) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) X(21) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 5(55) X(55) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) X(20) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 4(38) X(38) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 3(50) X(50) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 1(40) X(40) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 1(32) X(32) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 14(20) X(20) X(20) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 18(29) X(29) X(29) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) X(40) X(40) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 58(62) 1(63) X(63) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 66(67) 1(68) X(68) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 77(77) 2(79) X(79) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 2(47) X(47) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) X(26) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 55(55) 10(65) X(65) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 7(33) X(33) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 59(59) 7(66) X(66) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) X(34) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 69(70) 3(73) X(73) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 4(45) X(45) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 3(27) X(27) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 74(75) 2(77) X(77) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 1(49) X(49) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 2(30) X(30) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 56(56) 4(60) X(60) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 4(33) X(33) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 19(59) X(59) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) X(25) ALBANY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 22(41) X(41) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 29(49) X(49) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 12(43) X(43) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) DOTHAN AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) X(22) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 1(34) X(34) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) COZUMEL MX 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 13(13) 56(69) 11(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 23(23) 14(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) 4(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240238 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 82.4W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 82.4W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.1W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.1N 83.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.2N 84.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.6N 85.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.4N 85.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.2N 84.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.4N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 220SE 140SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 82.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Nine was located near 18.3, -82.3 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 232347 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 82.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Cayman. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required tonight and Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 82.3 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches, bringing a risk of flooding, some of which could be considerable. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Florida Keys...1-3 ft Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

569
ABNT20 KNHC 232304
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
middle to latter part of this week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 21:54:10 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 21:31:50 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 20:54:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 21:23:10 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 845 WTNT44 KNHC 232053 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance are gradually becoming better organized this afternoon, although the convection is mostly confined to the eastern portion of the circulation. Scatterometer winds and aircraft data indicate the disturbance still lacks a well-defined center, with very light winds noted on the west side of the broad, elongated circulation. The scatterometer data did show stronger winds near the convection on the east side, and based on this along with the aircraft winds, the initial intensity is raised to 30 kt for this advisory. The estimated initial motion is north-northwestward (345/6 kt), but the disturbance should turn more northwestward during the next day or so. The NHC forecast shows the center of the system passing between the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba late Tuesday night, then moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. From there, the flow between a deep-layer trough over the central United States and a ridge over the western Atlantic should cause the system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle through Thursday. The track guidance is very tightly clustered on this solution, and the official NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. The moderate southwesterly shear over the disturbance is expected to diminish over the next day or two, which should allow the system to become better organized and consolidate over deep, warm waters in a very moist environment. Once the system develops an inner core, these conditions should allow it to significantly strengthen. The NHC forecast still calls for the system to become a hurricane on Wednesday, with continued intensification thereafter while it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Once again, the statistical RI guidance (SHIPS and DTOPS) show a 65-kt increase in 72 h is very likely, and the updated NHC forecast now explicitly shows the system reaching major hurricane intensity on Thursday. This intensity forecast still lies below the consensus aids, with the regional hurricane models and the GFS showing even more deepening. Note that the system is expected to grow in size while it traverses the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system. In addition, the fast forward speed as it approaches the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of gusty winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with hurricane conditions possible. 2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area tonight or Tuesday morning, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible mudslides in western Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 18.1N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 24/0600Z 19.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 24/1800Z 19.9N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 21.1N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 28.9N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 28/1800Z 39.5N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Nine was located near 18.1, -82.2 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 232052 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 82.2W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Dry Tortugas and the Lower Florida Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Florida west coast, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required tonight and Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 82.2 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches, bringing a risk of flooding, some of which could be considerable. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Florida Keys...1-3 ft Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 232052 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 1(27) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 20(43) 1(44) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21(31) 1(32) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 17(42) 1(43) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) X(26) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 12(37) X(37) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) X(18) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 7(31) X(31) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) X(19) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 4(28) X(28) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 4(28) 1(29) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) 1(16) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) 1(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 1(19) X(19) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 16(26) 1(27) X(27) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 1(37) X(37) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 49(52) 2(54) X(54) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) 4(58) X(58) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 58(58) 9(67) X(67) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 8(34) X(34) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 26(56) X(56) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) X(23) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 23(58) X(58) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 16(26) X(26) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 60(60) 15(75) X(75) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 15(45) 1(46) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) X(26) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 70(70) 9(79) X(79) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 9(51) 1(52) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 8(30) X(30) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) 15(64) X(64) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 14(34) X(34) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) X(29) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 32(43) X(43) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) X(29) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 1(29) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 25(38) X(38) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) DOTHAN AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 5(45) X(45) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 10(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 6( 6) 49(55) 21(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 10(10) 23(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 4( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 858 WTNT24 KNHC 232051 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 82.2W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 82.2W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 81.9W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 83.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.9N 84.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.1N 85.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.4N 85.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...220NE 210SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.9N 84.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 39.5N 88.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 82.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Nine was located near 17.9, -81.9 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231752 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 81.9W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 81.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward or north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will spread into the Southeast U.S. starting on Wednesday and continuing through Friday, bringing a risk of flash and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

791
ABNT20 KNHC 231730
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave approaching the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
middle to latter part of this week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 16:17:04 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 15:39:41 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 231500 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images, surface observations and visible satellite images suggest the low-level circulation remains broad and farther to the southwest. Nonetheless, the system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next day or two, and it is likely to bring tropical storm conditions to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the NHC is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories for this disturbance. The initial motion is quite uncertain given the current lack of organization, but the best estimate is northward at about 5 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next day or so, with the center passing through the Yucatan Channel and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, the system is forecast to accelerate northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico within the flow between a digging deep-layer trough over the central United States and a ridge over the western Atlantic. This motion should bring the center of the system toward the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. The track guidance agrees reasonably well on this scenario, and the initial NHC forecast lies near the simple and corrected consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the average forecast track uncertainty is larger in these situations, and future track adjustments may be required. Given the large size of the tropical-storm-force wind field and fast forward speed that is forecast, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system. While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for significant strengthening. In fact, the DTOPS statistical guidance shows a 95 percent chance of a 65-kt increase in intensity during the next 72 h, and the hurricane regional models highlight the potential for strengthening to major hurricane intensity. Thus, the NHC forecast shows significant strengthening while the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a 95-kt intensity in 72 h. While this forecast is aggressive, it lies near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments may be necessary. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches have been issued for portions of western Cuba the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Florida west coast should monitor the progress of this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The disturbance is forecast to strengthen and be near hurricane strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with hurricane conditions possible. 2. The system is expected to intensify while it moves northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be a major hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along portions of the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Florida west coast. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible mudslides in western Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Nine was located near 17.6, -82.0 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.