Issued at 700 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 051056 TCUAT4 Hurricane Debby Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 700 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations and Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that the center of Hurricane Debby has made landfall around 700 AM EDT (1100 UTC) near Steinhatchee, Florida in the Florida Big Bend. Data from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the minimum pressure at landfall was around 979 mb (28.91 in) and the maximum winds were estimated to be around 80 mph (130 km/h). SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 83.5W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W of STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Pasch

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 10:36:17 GMT

...DEBBY VERY NEAR LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 6:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Debby was located near 29.6, -83.7 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 600 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 050953 TCUAT4 Hurricane Debby Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 600 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...DEBBY VERY NEAR LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that Debby is close to making landfall in the Florida Big Bend region. The northern and eastern portions of the eyewall are already onshore and the hurricane will be making landfall later this morning. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the minimum pressure is around 979 mb (28.91 in) and the maximum winds are still estimated to be around 80 mph (130 km/h). A National Ocean Service Tide station in Cedar Key recently reported a water level of 4.6 ft above Mean Higher High Water. Tropical Cyclone Updates will continue through landfall. SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 83.7W ABOUT 60 MI...80 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Alaka

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 09:51:39 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 08:57:25 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 08:57:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 08:57:13 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050856 TCDAT4 Hurricane Debby Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 The eyewall of Debby is moving onshore and landfall in the Florida Big Bend is expected to occur within the next few hours. Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that the eye of the hurricane has become a bit more circular and deep convection remains fairly well organized over the eastern eyewall, and in bands east of the center that have spread across portions of northern Florida. There have been numerous reports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds, but the strongest so far is in Horseshoe Beach, where a weather station recently recorded a sustained wind of 57 kt and a gust to 83 kt. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the maximum winds are likely near 70 kt, and Debby will likely maintain that intensity or strengthen a little until it reaches the coast. After landfall, Debby is expected to slow down and turn northeastward as the steering currents collapse, taking the system across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia later today through Tuesday. Most of the models show Debby moving off the southeast U.S. coast late Tuesday and Wednesday before a ridge builds to the north of the system, which should push it back inland over South Carolina on Thursday. Although the details of the track forecast are unknown, there is high confidence that Debby will move slowly while near or over the southeastern U.S., which will likely result in catastrophic flooding in some locations. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and in line with the consensus aids. Rapid weakening is forecast after the center moves inland, and Debby will likely become a tropical storm over northern Florida this afternoon. If Debby does move back offshore of the southeast U.S., there could be a little strengthening before it moves inland once again. Regardless of the system's strength, the main impact is expected to be heavy rainfall as mentioned above. The NHC intensity forecast is generally similar to the previous one and near the HCCA and IVCN aids. NHC has begun issuing hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates, and they will continue through landfall. Key Messages: 1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of central and northern Florida and across portions of central and northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown through the morning. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected this morning along portions of the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue for several more hours farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning area along Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area. 4. Dangerous storm surge and wind impacts are expected along portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge warnings and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 29.5N 83.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 30.5N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0600Z 31.3N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/1800Z 31.8N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0600Z 31.9N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/1800Z 32.1N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 08/0600Z 32.3N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 09/0600Z 33.5N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0600Z 35.6N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 050855 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Debby Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...DEBBY VERY NEAR LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 83.7W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Englewood northward to the middle of Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Yankeetown to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast south of Yankeetown to Boca Grande * Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * St. Augustine to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Debby was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 83.7 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will reach the Florida Big Bend coast later this morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia late today and Tuesday, and be near the Georgia coast by Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected after Debby moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward over the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast through the morning, and begin along portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast by this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by late tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Yankeetown, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...4-6 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern Florida and southeastern Georgia today. The threat will spread northeastward into parts of South Carolina later today and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 050855 PWSAT4 HURRICANE DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 3(16) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 7(20) 3(23) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 14(19) 7(26) 3(29) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 15(21) 8(29) 3(32) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 14(23) 8(31) 4(35) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 2(18) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 2( 3) 21(24) 9(33) 9(42) 5(47) 2(49) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 9(10) 36(46) 5(51) 5(56) 2(58) 1(59) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 3(15) X(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 13(13) 23(36) 3(39) 1(40) 2(42) 1(43) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 21 52(73) 7(80) X(80) 1(81) 1(82) 1(83) KINGS BAY GA 50 1 18(19) 3(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) 1(25) KINGS BAY GA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 28 44(72) 1(73) X(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) WAYCROSS GA 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 19 44(63) 6(69) X(69) 3(72) 1(73) X(73) MAYPORT NS FL 50 1 12(13) 1(14) 1(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 29 35(64) 2(66) X(66) 1(67) 1(68) X(68) JACKSONVILLE 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 1(96) X(96) GAINESVILLE FL 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 25 X(25) X(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 1(27) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 17 X(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ST MARKS FL 34 50 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 1(52) APALACHICOLA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ALBANY GA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) MACON GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 050855 TCMAT4 HURRICANE DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 83.7W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 83.7W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 83.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.5N 83.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.3N 82.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.8N 81.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.9N 80.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 32.1N 79.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.3N 79.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 33.5N 79.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 20NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 35.6N 78.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 83.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...DEBBY VERY NEAR LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Debby was located near 29.5, -83.7 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

916
ABNT20 KNHC 050554
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Debby, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located near the Windward Islands continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development over
the next week while the system moves westward at around 20 mph over
the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

...DEBBY STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 2:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Debby was located near 29.1, -83.8 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 050546 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...DEBBY STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 83.8W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning on the east coast of Florida has been extended southward to St. Augustine. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Englewood northward to the middle of Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Yankeetown to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast south of Yankeetown to Boca Grande * Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * St. Augustine to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Debby was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 83.8 West. Debby is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will reach the Florida Big Bend coast later this morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia late today and Tuesday, and be near the Georgia coast by Tuesday night. Data from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before Debby reaches the Florida Big Bend coast later this morning. Weakening is expected after Debby moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward over the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast through the morning, and begin along portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast by this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by late tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Yankeetown, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...4-6 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Hurricane Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of central and northern Florida and southeastern North Carolina through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern Florida and southern Georgia today. The threat will spread northeastward into coastal Georgia and parts of South Carolina later today. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 04:41:26 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 03:49:38 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050255 TCDAT4 Hurricane Debby Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 NWS Doppler Radar imagery from both Tampa and Tallahassee along with reports from both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Debby's structure has continued to improve this evening with a ragged eye becoming apparent. Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft have found strong flight-level winds in the convective band located well to the east-northeast of the center, with the Air Force plane measuring 700-mb flight-level winds in the 75-77 kt range. Recent dropsonde data has shown that the pressure has fallen to around 985 mb. Based on these data, Debby is being upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane at this time. Although the inner core is still somewhat ragged, the storm's structure has improved and additional strengthening appears likely overnight and early Monday while Debby moves over waters of high heat content in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and within a favorable upper-level wind environment. The NHC intensity forecast is again at the high end of the intensity guidance. Weakening is expected while Debby moves inland over the southeastern United States. Some restrengthening is forecast when Debby moves over the western Atlantic, but there is still higher-than-normal uncertainty in this portion of the forecast. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Debby should continue to move generally northward overnight and early Monday through a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-level trough over the eastern United States. This motion is expected to bring the center onshore along the coast of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. After that time, the trough is forecast to move eastward causing the steering currents to weaken over the southeastern United States. This will result in a significant slowdown of Debby's forward motion, and the model spread increases significantly in the 72-120 h time period. Regardless of Debby's exact forecast track during that time, the slow forward speed is likely to cause potentially historic rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina, with an increasing likelihood of catastrophic flooding. Key Messages: 1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina through Friday morning will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of central and northern Florida through the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through Friday. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown late tonight and Monday morning. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning area along Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area. 4. Dangerous storm surge and wind impacts are expected along portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge warnings and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 28.6N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 29.8N 83.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 30.8N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/1200Z 31.5N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0000Z 31.6N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/1200Z 31.7N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 32.1N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 33.0N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0000Z 34.7N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

...DEBBY BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Debby was located near 28.6, -84.0 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 050255 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Debby Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEBBY BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 84.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from Suwannee River to Yankeetown. The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of South Carolina from the Savannah River to South Santee River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Boca Grande has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch south of Englewood has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Englewood northward to the middle of Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Yankeetown to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast south of Yankeetown to Boca Grande * Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * Ponte Vedre Beach to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or Monday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Debby was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 84.0 West. Debby is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday, and be near the Georgia coast by Tuesday night. Data from Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before Debby reaches the Florida Big Bend coast on Monday. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning overnight. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward over the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast through tonight, and begin along portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area late Monday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Yankeetown, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...4-6 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of central and northern Florida and southeastern North Carolina through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern Florida and southern Georgia tonight and Monday. The threat will spread northeastward into coastal Georgia and parts of South Carolina on Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown