5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 20:53:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 20:53:33 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 20:49:50 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 355 FONT14 KNHC 052048 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 5(15) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) 4(19) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) 3(20) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 6(24) 2(26) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20(28) 4(32) 2(34) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 19(29) 6(35) 1(36) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 18(30) 7(37) 1(38) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 4(17) 1(18) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 8(20) 11(31) 4(35) 1(36) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 17(18) 8(26) 4(30) 6(36) 4(40) X(40) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 9(11) 2(13) 1(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) KINGS BAY GA 34 76 5(81) X(81) X(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83) KINGS BAY GA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 38 1(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) 1(41) WAYCROSS GA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 69 2(71) 1(72) 1(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) MAYPORT NS FL 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GAINESVILLE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...DEBBY INLAND NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Debby was located near 30.5, -82.9 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 296 WTNT34 KNHC 052047 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...DEBBY INLAND NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 82.9W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning along the Florida Gulf Coast from the Aucilla River to Aripeka is discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Aripeka is discontinued. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from north of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South Carolina and North Carolina coast from north of South Santee River to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Augustine, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 82.9 West. Debby is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the east is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the north at a slow forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across southeastern Georgia tonight and Tuesday, move offshore of the South Carolina coast by late Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the South Carolina coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through late Tuesday. Some re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday and Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Florida and Georgia Atlantic coast through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by late tonight or early Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North Carolina through Wednesday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina this evening through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 295 WTNT24 KNHC 052047 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 82.9W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 82.9W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 83.1W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.2N 82.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.7N 81.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.7N 80.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 32.1N 79.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.6N 79.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.2N 79.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 35.3N 79.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 38.5N 75.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 82.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051750
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, centered inland over northern Florida.

Near the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
near the Windward Islands have changed little since this morning.
Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the
next couple of days while the system moves westward over the
eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development later this week as the system
moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

...DEBBY MOVING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SEVERE FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Debby was located near 30.4, -83.1 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 051749 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...DEBBY MOVING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SEVERE FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 83.1W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF LIVE OAK FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning from Aucilla River westward to Ochlockonee River is discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning from the middle of Longboat Key to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay, Florida, is discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Aripeka, Florida is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from Aripeka to the Aucilla River * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from Indian Pass to Aripeka * St. Augustine, Florida to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 83.1 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the east is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across southeastern Georgia tonight and Tuesday, and move offshore of the South Carolina coast by late Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through late Tuesday. Some re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast for the next few hours, and have begun along portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by late tonight or early Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Yankeetown, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 ft Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North Carolina through Wednesday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern Florida and southeastern Georgia today. The threat will spread northeastward into parts of South Carolina later today and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 16:21:26 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 15:39:31 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 14:56:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 14:56:46 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 14:55:39 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 398 WTNT44 KNHC 051455 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Debby's center made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region earlier today around 1100 UTC with an estimated intensity of 70 kt. Since landfall, the system has moved over northern Florida while gradually weakening below hurricane intensity. Assuming a typical rate of weakening over land, the current intensity is set at 60 kt. WSR-88D Doppler velocities still show hurricane-force winds aloft, at an elevation of about 3500 ft, over the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. Therefore, some damaging winds could still be brought down to the surface in the more vigorous convection near the inland path of Debby. Debby has been moving through a break in the subtropical ridge with an estimated initial motion of 030/7 kt. Steering currents are expected to weaken some more, resulting in a further decrease in forward speed. Most of the track guidance turns Debby eastward, with the center moving off the coast near the Georgia/South Carolina border in about 36 hours. Debby should move very slowly near the South Carolina coast through 60 hours or so. Then, a mid-level ridge builds slightly to the northeast of the cyclone, which should push the system back inland over the latter part of the forecast period. The official forecast track is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical consensus models, TVCA and HCCA. Continued weakening is expected while the center of Debby remains over land tonight and Tuesday. By late Tuesday and thereafter, some restrengthening is anticipated as the center moves offshore. However the amount that the cyclone re-intensifies is dependent on how far out over the Atlantic the system moves and how long it remains over water. The current official forecast shows only modest restrengthening, given the uncertainties. Going forward, the biggest threat from this slow-moving system system is extreme precipitation and flooding over the southeastern United States. Key Messages: 1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of central and northern Florida and across portions of central and northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue in the Storm Surge warning area along the Gulf Coast of Florida, including the Tampa Bay area, through this afternoon. 3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the Gulf Coast of Florida today within the Tropical Storm warning area. 4. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for portions of these areas, and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later today. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 30.2N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/1200Z 31.7N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0000Z 31.9N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 07/1200Z 32.1N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 09/1200Z 34.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1200Z 37.4N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 051454 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...DEBBY EXPECTED TO CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 83.2W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF LAKE CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning from west of the Ochlockonee River, Florida to Indian Pass, Florida is discontinued. The Hurricane Warning from Yankeetown to Indian Pass, Florida is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning west of Indian Pass, Florida is discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning south of the middle of Longboat Key is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to the Ochlockonee River * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from Indian Pass to the middle of Longboat Key * St. Augustine, Florida to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 83.2 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the east is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across southeastern Georgia tonight and Tuesday, and move offshore of the South Carolina coast by late Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. An observing station at Live Oak East recently reported a wind gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). A WeatherFlow site near the entrance to the St. Johns River in Jacksonville reported a wind gust to 48 mph (77 km/h) during the last hour. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast today, and begin along portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by late tonight or early Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Yankeetown, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...2-4 ft Aucilla River, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North Carolina through Wednesday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern Florida and southeastern Georgia today. The threat will spread northeastward into parts of South Carolina later today and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 051454 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 83.2W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 75SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 83.2W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.4W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.7N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.9N 80.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.1N 79.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 34.6N 79.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 20NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 37.4N 76.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 83.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 051454 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 4(16) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) 4(23) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 8(20) 3(23) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 9(26) 2(28) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) 8(34) 2(36) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 16(25) 10(35) 3(38) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 15(27) 9(36) 2(38) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 4(17) 2(19) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 11(26) 9(35) 5(40) 1(41) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 22(23) 14(37) 6(43) 5(48) 3(51) 1(52) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 23(25) 3(28) 2(30) 2(32) 2(34) X(34) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 78 12(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) KINGS BAY GA 50 13 9(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 1(23) X(23) WAYCROSS GA 34 84 3(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) WAYCROSS GA 50 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MAYPORT NS FL 34 72 10(82) X(82) 1(83) X(83) 1(84) X(84) MAYPORT NS FL 50 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) JACKSONVILLE 34 85 3(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) JACKSONVILLE 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GAINESVILLE FL 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 824 WTNT34 KNHC 051154 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...DEBBY JUST INLAND IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... ...EXPECTED TO BRING MAJOR FLOODING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 83.4W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch from the middle of Longboat Key to Englewood Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Yankeetown to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast south of Yankeetown to Boca Grande * Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * St. Augustine to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Debby was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia today and Tuesday, and be near the Georgia coast by Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Debby moves over land today and tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) was reported at Madison County High School within the last hour. The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast through the morning, and begin along portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast by this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by late tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Yankeetown, FL to Aucilla River, FL...6-10 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...4-6 ft Aucilla River, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-6 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern Florida and southeastern Georgia today. The threat will spread northeastward into parts of South Carolina later today and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast later today and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. Since Debby is inland and its Radar appearance has degraded, NHC has stopped issuing hourly position updates. $$ Forecaster Pasch/D. Zelinsky

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Debby, centered inland near the Florida Big Bend.

East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
near the Windward Islands have decreased and become less organized
since yesterday. Any development of this system should be slow to
occur during the next couple of days while the system moves westward
over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development later this week as
the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...DEBBY MOVING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SEVERE FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Debby was located near 30.4, -83.1 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.