5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 05:49:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 03:22:57 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060544
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, center inland over southeastern Georgia.

Western Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the eastern Caribbean Sea remain disorganized. Any development
of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of
days while it moves westward over the eastern and central Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive
for development later this week as the system moves across the
western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

...CENTER OF DEBBY OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA, GETTING CLOSER TO THE COAST... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 the center of Debby was located near 31.2, -81.9 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060543 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 ...CENTER OF DEBBY OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA, GETTING CLOSER TO THE COAST... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 81.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM N OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South Carolina and North Carolina coast from north of South Santee River to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Little River Inlet to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 81.9 West. Debby is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the east is expected today, followed by a turn to the north at a slow forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across southeastern Georgia this morning, and then off the Georgia coast later today and on Wednesday, and approach the South Carolina coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is possible today. Some re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday and Thursday when Debby is off the southeastern U.S. coast. Recent satellite-derived wind data and surface observations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles (320 km) east of the center. A weather station on Tybee Island, Georgia, recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). A station on Folly Island, South Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Florida and Georgia Atlantic coast through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina beginning Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 30 inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of eastern Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina through Wednesday. Across portions of central and northeast North Carolina, 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 18 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. An additional scattered 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 4 inches is possible across western portions of the Central Florida Peninsula which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions across that area. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina tonight through today. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 03:58:00 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 03:41:36 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 02:41:02 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 02:41:02 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 02:40:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 03:22:57 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060239 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 The center of Debby has continued to move northeastward over southeastern Georgia this evening. Earlier in the evening, there were a few reports of sustained winds of 34-36 kt along portions of the Georgia coast, which supported the 40-kt intensity on the intermediate advisory at 0000 UTC. Although there have not been reports that high in the past hour or two, the initial intensity is maintained at 40 kt as the strongest winds are likely occuring in bands offshore. The initial motion estimate is 050/5 kt. The steering currents are forecast to weaken further over the next couple of days, and a slow eastward motion should begin on Tuesday when Debby is near the Georgia coast. An even slower northward motion is expected on Wednesday, which should bring the center toward the coast of South Carolina Wednesday night or Thursday. Toward the end of the week, most of the track guidance suggests that Debby may begin to move a little faster toward the north in southerly flow between a building ridge over the western Atlantic and a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes and southern Canada. Although there is still low confidence in the specifics of the track forecast, there is high confidence that Debby will be meandering near the southeastern U.S. coast for the next few days. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the HFIP corrected consensus model (HCCA) through 72 hours and lies between that model and the simple multi-model consensus (TVCA) at the longer range. Debby is likely to weaken a little more while it moves over land through early Tuesday. After that, the center is forecast to move offshore, which should allow for some gradual re-intensification. The NHC intensity forecast follows the bulk of the guidance and shows only modest strengthening before the center moves back onshore. Given the sluggish forward motion of Debby, extremely large rainfall amounts are expected over portions of the Southeastern United States. Key Messages: 1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts for portions of central and northern Florida and across portions of central and northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning. 2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm surge and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of these areas. Residents in the storm surge watch and warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 31.1N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/1200Z 31.6N 81.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/0000Z 31.8N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 07/1200Z 31.9N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 33.8N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/0000Z 36.3N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/0000Z 40.2N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 060238 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 2(14) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 1(19) 2(21) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 2(21) 1(22) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 17(29) 2(31) 1(32) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) 1(18) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 16(21) 18(39) 2(41) X(41) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 15(22) 19(41) 2(43) X(43) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) 1(10) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 2 2( 4) 5( 9) 16(25) 17(42) 2(44) X(44) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 1(10) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 9(25) 1(26) X(26) CHARLESTON SC 34 6 9(15) 9(24) 8(32) 10(42) 1(43) X(43) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 22 8(30) 6(36) 3(39) 5(44) 1(45) 1(46) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 59 2(61) 1(62) X(62) 1(63) 1(64) X(64) KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WAYCROSS GA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

...SLOW-MOVING DEBBY BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Debby was located near 31.1, -82.1 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060238 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...SLOW-MOVING DEBBY BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 82.1W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of South Carolina from South Santee River to Little River Inlet. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South Carolina and North Carolina coast from north of South Santee River to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Little River Inlet to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 82.1 West. Debby is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the east is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the north at a slow forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across southeastern Georgia tonight, and then off the Georgia coast Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the South Carolina coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast tonight or early Tuesday. Some re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday and Thursday when Debby is off the southeastern U.S. coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Florida and Georgia Atlantic coast through early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by late tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina beginning Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 30 inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of eastern Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina through Wednesday. Across portions of central and northeast North Carolina, 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 18 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. An additional scattered 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 4 inches is possible across western portions of the Central Florida Peninsula which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions across that area. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 060238 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 82.1W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 82.1W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 82.4W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.6N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.8N 80.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 31.9N 79.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.8N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 36.3N 78.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 40.2N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 82.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

...SLOW-MOVING DEBBY BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Debby was located near 30.7, -82.4 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 052355 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...SLOW-MOVING DEBBY BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.7N 82.4W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South Carolina and North Carolina coast from north of South Santee River to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Augustine, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later tonight or Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 82.4 West. Debby is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the east is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the north at a slow forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across southeastern Georgia tonight and Tuesday, move offshore of the South Carolina coast by late Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the South Carolina coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional weakening is forecast tonight and Tuesday. Some re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday and Thursday when Debby moves off the southeastern U.S. coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Florida and Georgia Atlantic coast through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area by late tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in South and North Carolina beginning Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North Carolina through Wednesday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina this evening through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052337
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, centered inland near the Florida/Georgia border.

Western Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the eastern Caribbean Sea remain disorganized. Any development
of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of
days while it moves westward over the eastern and central Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive
for development later this week as the system moves across the
western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 21:55:05 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 21:33:29 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 850 WTNT44 KNHC 052048 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Debby continues to move over land, and based on surface synoptic and radar observations the center is estimated to be near the Florida/Georgia border. Assuming a continued weakening since landfall, the intensity estimate has been reduced to 45 kt, which is reasonably consistent with the latest WSR-88D radar velocities aloft. Debby continues to move through a weakness in the subtropical high, and the forward motion has slowed to about 035/6 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn eastward, while moving quite slowly, in a region of weak steering currents for the next couple of days. This motion should bring the center of the system back over water by late Tuesday. In around 72 hours, a mid-level ridge to the east of Debby is forecast to build somewhat, and as a result, the center should move inland over South Carolina and turn northward and northeastward over the eastern U.S. for the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is in good agreement with the corrected model consensus, HCCA, guidance. The tropical cyclone should continue to weaken while it moves over land for the next day or so. By late Tuesday, assuming the center of the system moves back over water, some re-intensification is forecast. The NHC forecast continues to show only modest restrengthening due to the uncertainties, although this may be conservative. Given the sluggish forward motion of Debby, extremely large amounts of rainfall over the Southeastern U.S. is anticipated. Key Messages: 1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of central and northern Florida and across portions of central and northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning. 2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of these areas. Residents in the Storm Surge watch and warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 30.5N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 31.2N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/1800Z 31.7N 81.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0600Z 31.7N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 07/1800Z 32.1N 79.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 08/0600Z 32.6N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 08/1800Z 33.2N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1800Z 35.3N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1800Z 38.5N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch