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Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 08:45:59 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 888 WTNT44 KNHC 070845 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Debby's circulation consists of a nearly 60 nm wide convection-free region near the center, which is drifting eastward off the coast of South Carolina. Moderate to deep convection is organized in broken bands well away from the center, with the strongest band currently feeding into eastern North Carolina. The storm appears to have strengthened slightly now that a greater proportion of the circulation is back over water, and the initial intensity is set at 40 kt based on a 0143 UTC ASCAT-B pass. The longer-term motion is slowly eastward, or 085/4 kt. Although Debby is expected to maintain a slow motion for the next 24 hours or so, a mid-level ridge over the western and central Atlantic should cause the storm to turn northward today, with the center reaching the coast of South Carolina by tonight. Debby should then accelerate toward the north and northeast beginning on Thursday over the eastern United States and eastern Canada, ahead of a deep-layer trough moving across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. No changes were required to the new NHC track forecast, which lies on top of the previous forecast and down the middle of the guidance envelope. Debby's structure does not argue for any type of significant strengthening, but warm ocean waters of 29 degrees Celsius and low shear could allow the wind field to strengthen a bit over the next 24 hours while the circulation remains over water. A peak intensity of 45 kt is shown at 12 and 24 hours, which is generally in line with the bulk of the intensity guidance. Weakening is forecast to begin by 36 hours once the center moves inland, and global model fields and phase-space diagrams indicate that Debby is likely to be absorbed by a front and become extratropical by 60 hours over the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina is expected to persist through Thursday which would broaden areas of considerable flooding. Expected heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from the Piedmont of the Carolinas, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, and Vermont through Saturday morning. 2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast from South Carolina to North Carolina through Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area. 3. A dangerous storm surge is possible along the coast of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from South Santee River to Cape Fear. Residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 31.9N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 32.3N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 32.9N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 34.1N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0600Z 36.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1800Z 39.2N 77.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z 43.8N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z 50.8N 62.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z 53.9N 53.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 886 FONT14 KNHC 070845 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 5 5(10) 3(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) MOREHEAD CITY 34 6 6(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SURF CITY NC 34 12 12(24) 5(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) WILMINGTON NC 34 7 10(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BALD HEAD ISL 34 33 17(50) 4(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 4 8(12) 19(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LITTLE RIVER 34 33 24(57) 8(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 41 25(66) 7(73) X(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) MYRTLE BEACH 50 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 43 26(69) 5(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) GEORGETOWN SC 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 37 26(63) 4(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) CHARLESTON SC 50 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 30 15(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 10 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KINGS BAY GA 34 10 3(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MAYPORT NS FL 34 9 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BERG

...DEBBY LOITERING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 the center of Debby was located near 31.9, -79.5 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070844 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...DEBBY LOITERING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 79.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Debby is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). An even slower motion toward the north and north-northwest is expected today, bringing the center of Debby to the South Carolina coast by tonight or early Thursday. A faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region is expected on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today or tonight before the center of Debby reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina beginning today and continuing through Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 25 inches in South Carolina and 15 inches in southeast North Carolina, broadening the area of considerable flooding across portions of South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions. From the Piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 070844 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.5W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 100SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.5W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 32.3N 79.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.9N 79.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.1N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.0N 79.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 39.2N 77.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 43.8N 73.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 50.8N 62.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 53.9N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 79.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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000
ABNT20 KNHC 070538
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located just offshore of the Georgia and South
Carolina coastline.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea remain disorganized. The
northern portion of this tropical wave could reach the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but any development should be slow
to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 05:37:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 03:23:05 GMT

...DEBBY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 2:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 the center of Debby was located near 31.8, -79.8 with movement ESE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070537 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...DEBBY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 79.8W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 79.8 West. Debby is moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion toward the east and then north is expected today through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to slowly move away from the coast of Georgia and South Carolina tonight, continue to drift offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland over South Carolina on Thursday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast while the center of Debby remains offshore. Weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly to the southeast and south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina beginning today and continuing through Thursday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central South Carolina to the Upstate of South Carolina, northward into Southwest Virginia, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State into Northern New England, 3 to 6 inches with local amounts to 8 inches, are expected through Saturday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. An additional scattered 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is possible across southeast Georgia through this morning, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions across that vicinity. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal South Carolina and North Carolina through this morning. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 03:55:42 GMT