5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131135
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Seven, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Francine, located inland over northeastern Arkansas.

Northern Leeward Islands (AL94):
Surface observations indicate a small area of low pressure is
located over the northern Leeward Islands. The system continues to
produce showers and thunderstorms this morning, but they have not
become any better organized. Environmental conditions, including the
proximity of dry air, do not favor development of this system while
it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible
across the northern Leeward Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal
boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline
this weekend. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development
is possible during the early part of next week while the system
moves generally northwestward toward the coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY BUT STRUGGLES LIKELY LIE AHEAD... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 13 the center of Seven was located near 19.0, -38.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 132 WTNT32 KNHC 130835 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY BUT STRUGGLES LIKELY LIE AHEAD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 38.2W ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 38.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is forecast by tonight, with the system gradually slowing down through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm later today, however little change in strength overall is anticipated through the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 133 WTNT22 KNHC 130835 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 38.2W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 38.2W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 37.7W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.7N 45.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 20.5N 50.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 38.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 08:42:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 09:23:00 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130836 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 The depression has an asymmetric structure due to moderate west-northwesterly shear, with the center lying west of generally shapeless convective clusters. Because there has largely been little change in the system's organization, and there is quite a range among the subjective and objective estimates, the intensity remains 30 kt out of respect for continuity. The initial motion is a little slower toward the west-northwest (290/12 kt). A weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is becoming more pronounced, and the track guidance indicates that the system should turn westward by tonight and slow down further through much of the forecast period as it moves across the central tropical Atlantic. In fact, by days 4 and 5, an amplifying shortwave trough to the north is likely to cause the cyclone to crawl at speeds near or less than 5 kt and gradually turn northwestward. The official forecast is close to the previous prediction during the first 60 hours, but then is adjusted westward on days 3 through 5 following the latest model trends. In terms of moisture, the environment across the tropical Atlantic has not been kind to weather systems over the past couple of months. The official forecast still allows for the possibility of the depression becoming a tropical storm today or tonight, however an even drier air mass to the west is likely to cause the cyclone to continue struggling convectively. In fact, all of the global models show the cyclone's wind field weakening over the weekend, with the GFS suggesting the depression could degenerate into a remnant low. For now, the NHC forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for the entire forecast period, but it does show weakening in a couple of days. Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the system reaches a slightly more moist and low-shear environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 19.0N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 19.7N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 19.3N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 20.5N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 117 FONT12 KNHC 130836 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130535
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Seven, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Francine, located inland over northeastern Arkansas.

Near the Northern Leeward Islands (AL94):
Satellite-derived wind data from several hours ago indicate that
a small area of low pressure located less than one hundred miles
east of the northern Leeward Islands has degenerated into a surface
trough. Environmental conditions, including the proximity of dry
air, do not favor development of this system while it moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across the
northern Leeward Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal
boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline
this weekend. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development
is possible during the early part of next week while the system
moves generally northwestward toward the coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 02:54:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 03:22:50 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 491 WTNT42 KNHC 130253 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 The depression has been holding steady this evening. After a lull in the convective activity which exposed the low-level circulation, thunderstorms have been building steadily to the east of the center. Unfortunately, the scatterometer pass missed the core of the system once again. The initial intensity remains at 30 kt, close to the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. A subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is steering the system west-northwestward at about 14 kt. As the ridge weakens during the next few days, the cyclone should gradually slow and turn more westward. There is still a large spread in the track guidance envelope early next week, which seems partially related to the depth of the vortex. The ECMWF solution shows a much stronger system that turns the cyclone to the north sooner compared to the GFS and GFS-based regional models showing a weaker system that moves faster and stays in the low-level westerly flow. The latest NHC track forecast has been nudged a little to the south and lies between the previous prediction and the consensus aids. Marginal environmental conditions appear to be preventing the depression from making any appreciable intensity changes. Visible satellite imagery from earlier today showed a band of Saharan dust wrapping around the northern semicircle of the circulation. The intensity guidance has shifted downward again this cycle, with many models showing a steady-to-weakening system over the next 3-4 days. By the end of the forecast period, there is quite a bit of spread in the intensity guidance as noted earlier. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been decreased slightly but remains on the high side of the various aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 18.7N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 19.1N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 40.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 19.7N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 19.6N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 19.8N 49.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 20.5N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 549 FONT12 KNHC 130252 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

...DEPRESSION HOLDING STEADY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 12 the center of Seven was located near 18.7, -37.0 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 129 WTNT32 KNHC 130252 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...DEPRESSION HOLDING STEADY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 37.0W ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 37.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression could become a tropical storm by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 130 WTNT22 KNHC 130252 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 37.0W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 37.0W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 36.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.1N 38.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.4N 40.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.7N 44.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.6N 47.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 19.8N 49.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 37.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

000
ABNT20 KNHC 122337
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Seven, located over the central Atlantic Ocean. The
Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Francine, located inland over the Mississippi, Missouri,
and Tennessee tri-state area.

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a
small area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of
the Leeward Islands. The proximity of dry air near the system is
expected to limit additional development over the next couple of
days. Environmental conditions are expected to become even less
conducive over the weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward. Regardless of development, this system could
produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the northern
Leeward Islands on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual
frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S.
coastline this weekend. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical
development is possible during the early part of next week while the
system drifts to the north or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024