Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141444 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 Gordon's center is exposed and located west of its deep convection. This structure is a symptom of the moderate westerly vertical wind shear that continues to plague the tropical storm. Gordon is also struggling with the entrainment of dry and stable airmass. Despite these environmental challenges, a recent scatterometer pass shows the cyclone maintaining 40 kt maximum sustained winds. This data is the basis for the initial intensity of this advisory, and agrees with a blend of the objective and subjective estimates. The scatterometer pass also shows a lopsided wind field, with tropical storm force winds limited to the northern semicircle of Gordon. In the southern semicircle, winds are weak and the vortex shows signs of elongation. The cyclone continues to move into a dry and stable airmass, which in conjunction with the ongoing shear is forecast to induce weakening today and tonight. Gordon is forecast to become a tropical depression on Sunday. Thereafter, the forecast maintains the cyclone as a tropical depression through the early part of next week, but it is possible that the system degenerates into a remnant low or a surface trough during that time. In fact, the GFS model indicates convection could collapse as soon as tonight or early Sunday. The ECMWF model maintains pulsing convection a bit longer. By the middle of next week, the environment should become less hostile and allow for some re-strengthening of Gordon. The intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory and remains on the lower end of the guidance beyond 72 h due to the uncertain future of the cyclone. Gordon is tracking westward 280/8 kt, and a gradual turn toward the west-southwest with a slower forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days, in good agreement with the latest track guidance. Model spread increases beyond 72 h due to differences in intensity and the overall structure of Gordon at that time. The current forecast continues the system slowly west-southwestward due to lack of steering flow. Towards the end of the forecast period, an approaching shortwave trough will weaken the mid-level subtropical ridge and would allow the system to turn northward. The updated track forecast is close to the previous advisory near the simple consensus aids, and shows a gradual turn toward the northwest and north beyond Day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 20.1N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 19.9N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.6N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 20.0N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 21.5N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 141443 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY/MAHONEY

...GORDON CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 14 the center of Gordon was located near 20.1, -41.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 141443 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...GORDON CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 41.7W ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 41.7 West. Gordon is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly slower westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon is forecast to continue to weaken and become a depression on Sunday. Gradual re-strengthening is possible by the middle part of next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 141442 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 41.7W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 41.7W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 41.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.9N 44.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 46.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.6N 47.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 20.0N 50.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.5N 50.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 41.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/MAHONEY

553
ABNT20 KNHC 141119
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend
along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern
U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm waters of the Gulf
Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form
early next week while the system moves generally northwestward
toward the coast. Additional information on this system can be found
in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 08:44:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 09:22:59 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 140843 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 The center of Gordon appears to be racing out ahead of the deep convective mass to its east in recent proxy-visible satellite images. This appearance is consistent with moderate deep-layer westerly shear over the cyclone as indicated by model soundings. Earlier scatterometer data showed the extent of tropical-storm-force winds was about 100 n mi in the northern semicircle of the storm. The circulation on the southwest side of the storm was not as well defined, with relatively weak winds and signs of elongation. A blend of the latest subjective TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which is also consistent with the scatterometer winds. The sheared storm is moving into a drier and more stable air mass, which is likely to induce some weakening during the next couple of days. In fact, some models continue to show the possibility of Gordon losing organized convection and degenerating to a remnant low. The official NHC forecast brings Gordon to a depression in 24 h but maintains it as a tropical cyclone for now. Environmental conditions should become less hostile by the middle of next week, and the NHC forecast indicates some re-strengthening could occur during that time. This part of the forecast remains conservative, as there are still several dynamical models that show little, if any, re-intensification later next week. Gordon appears to be moving west-northwestward (285/8 kt), but a gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast over the next couple of days, in good agreement with the latest track guidance. Track forecast confidence decreases at days 3-5, where the motion appears more sensitive to whether or not Gordon restrengthens. A weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge is forecast to develop, which would allow the system to gain some latitude if its vertical depth matches that steering level. However, a shallower system could continue moving slowly westward within the low-level flow. The updated NHC forecast shows a more gradual turn toward the northwest and north at days 3-5, in best agreement with the TVCA simple consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 20.1N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 20.0N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 19.7N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 19.5N 46.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 19.3N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 19.5N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 21.0N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...POORLY ORGANIZED GORDON MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 14 the center of Gordon was located near 20.1, -40.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 140843 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...POORLY ORGANIZED GORDON MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 40.9W ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 40.9 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly slower westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is anticipated over the next day or so, and Gordon is forecast to become a depression by early Sunday. Gradual restrengthening is possible by the middle part of next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 140843 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 140842 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 40.9W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 40.9W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 40.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.0N 42.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.7N 45.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 46.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.3N 48.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 19.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 51.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 140537
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The
Weather Prediction Center has issued the final advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine, located inland over Arkansas.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form this
weekend along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the
southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm
waters of the Gulf Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression
or storm could form early next week while the system moves
generally northwestward toward the coast. Additional information on
this system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 02:42:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 03:22:58 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 140240 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 A 13/2045 UTC CSA RADARSAT Constellation Mission VH polarization image indicated that Gordon's surface center was farther east than previously indicated. Subsequently, the surface center has become more obscured while the convective mass has expanded somewhat over the western portion of the cyclone. A blend of the subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. Although the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows the westerly shear gradually diminishing through the period, the dry, stable thermodynamic surrounding environment is expected to be the primary inhibiting parameter. Gordon could degenerate to a remnant low around mid-period, although not shown explicitly in the NHC forecast. Beyond day 3, the official forecast shows gradual re-strengthening while atmospheric conditions become less hostile. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and based on the IVCN intensity consensus and below the Decay SHIPS statistical guidance. Gordon's initial motion is estimated to be westward or 280/8 kt and is steered by a low- to mid-tropospheric ridge extending west-southwestward from high pressure over the Azores. The cyclone should continue slowly toward the west to west-southwest during the next 72 hours. Afterward, a break in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast in response to an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough. As Gordon approaches this growing weakness in the ridge, the cyclone should turn toward the northwest and north. This forecast track scenario, however, assumes that the cyclone strengthens toward the end of the period. Only a slight adjustment to the left of the previous forecast beyond day 3 was made to lie closer to the TVCN consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 19.8N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 19.9N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 19.7N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 19.5N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 19.4N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 19.3N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 20.1N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 21.2N 50.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

...GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 13 the center of Gordon was located near 19.8, -40.3 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 140240 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 40.3W ABOUT 1100 MI...1775 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 40.3 West. Gordon is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a continued westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through early Saturday, then Gordon should weaken to a depression by Saturday evening. Gradual re-intensification is forecast by the middle part of next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts