...DEBBY BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Debby was located near 28.6, -84.0 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 050255 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Debby Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEBBY BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 84.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from Suwannee River to Yankeetown. The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of South Carolina from the Savannah River to South Santee River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Boca Grande has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch south of Englewood has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Englewood northward to the middle of Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Yankeetown to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast south of Yankeetown to Boca Grande * Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * Ponte Vedre Beach to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or Monday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Debby was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 84.0 West. Debby is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday, and be near the Georgia coast by Tuesday night. Data from Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before Debby reaches the Florida Big Bend coast on Monday. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning overnight. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward over the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast through tonight, and begin along portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area late Monday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Yankeetown, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...4-6 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of central and northern Florida and southeastern North Carolina through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern Florida and southern Georgia tonight and Monday. The threat will spread northeastward into coastal Georgia and parts of South Carolina on Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 390 FONT14 KNHC 050255 PWSAT4 HURRICANE DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 3(16) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 7(17) 3(20) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 8(11) 8(19) 3(22) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 4(24) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 11(23) 6(29) 3(32) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 5( 7) 12(19) 7(26) 7(33) 5(38) 2(40) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 3( 5) 10(15) 3(18) 2(20) 3(23) 1(24) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 11 38(49) 10(59) 1(60) 2(62) 2(64) 1(65) KINGS BAY GA 50 1 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) 1(13) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 4 44(48) 7(55) X(55) X(55) 1(56) X(56) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MAYPORT NS FL 34 13 31(44) 9(53) 1(54) 2(56) 2(58) 1(59) MAYPORT NS FL 50 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 4 28(32) 5(37) X(37) 1(38) 1(39) X(39) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 63 7(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 1(71) X(71) GAINESVILLE FL 50 19 5(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 34 25 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 1(29) X(29) ORLANDO FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) PATRICK AFB 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) VENICE FL 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 50 78 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) CEDAR KEY FL 64 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 61 4(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 1(66) X(66) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 16 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ST MARKS FL 34 78 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) ST MARKS FL 50 39 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ST MARKS FL 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 52 1(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) APALACHICOLA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 45 1(46) X(46) X(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) PANAMA CITY FL 34 21 3(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) 1(26) ALBANY GA 34 3 9(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MACON GA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) DOTHAN AL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 050254 TCMAT4 HURRICANE DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 84.0W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 84.0W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 84.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.8N 83.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.8N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.5N 82.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.6N 81.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 31.7N 80.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.1N 79.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 33.0N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 20NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 34.7N 79.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 84.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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