000
ABNT20 KNHC 081754
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An elongated area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Satellite-derived winds show this system does not yet
have a well-defined center, but is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph
on its western side. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development and a tropical storm is expected to form
during the next day or so. The system is forecast to move generally
northwestward and then northward near or along the Gulf coast of
Mexico, upper Texas, and Louisiana coasts with additional
strengthening possible by the middle of this week.

Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico, upper Texas, and Louisiana
coasts should closely monitor the progress of this system. Tropical
Storm Watches could be required for portions of the coast of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this afternoon or
tonight, with additional watches possible along the coast of Texas
and Louisiana later tonight or Monday. An Air-Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently in route to to investigate
the system this afternoon. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system over the next couple of days,
and a tropical depression is now likely to form during that time
while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By
the middle of this week the system should begin moving more westward
at around 10 mph through the rest of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move very
little during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts
with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions thereafter are expected
to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the
week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

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000
ABNT20 KNHC 081248 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Corrected category for the 48 hour probability for AL92

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association
with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. This system is forecast to drift slowly northwestward
during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions are
expected to become conducive for additional development. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the
system moves generally northwestward and then northward near or
along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of the
week. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf Coast should
closely monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be
required for portions of the western Gulf coast later today or
tonight. An Air-Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is also
scheduled to investigate the system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show some
signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form while the system meanders over the central tropical
Atlantic through Monday and then begins to move generally westward
at around 10 mph through the rest of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move very
little during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts
with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions thereafter are expected
to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the
week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin