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...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 the center of Francine was located near 23.0, -94.9 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 091534 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 4...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 Corrected direction relative to Grand Isle in Watch and Warning Summary section. ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from east of High Island, Texas, eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, including Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle in Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of High Island, Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield * East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana * East of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow north-northwestward motion is expected for the remainder of the day, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Francine is expected to be just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual intensification is expected over the next day with more significant intensification on Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning Tuesday, and for the extreme northern Texas and portions of the Louisiana coast on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the southern Texas coast, the far upper Texas coast and across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 091459 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 The structure of the system on satellite imagery has improved this morning, with a large circular region of cold convection between -70 to -85 near the estimated center. An Air-Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is sampling the system this morning and earlier found a cyclonic wind shift from southeasterly to northwesterly flow near the center of the mass of deep convection. This data provides enough evidence that a well-defined circulation now exists, and thus PTC Six has become Tropical Storm Francine with sustained winds of 45 kt this advisory. The estimated motion is still tricky given the center only recently formed but is estimated still off to the north-northwest at 340/4 kt. The system is expected to gradually turn northward and then north-northeastward as it moves between a mid-level ridge centered over Cuba and a broad mid- to upper-level trough located to its northwest over Texas. The guidance this cycle has shifted a little eastward and faster, and the NHC track forecast was once again nudged in that direction. The current track splits the difference between HCCA and TVCN and still shows Francine moving ashore of Louisiana sometime on Wednesday evening. There remains a decent amount of track uncertainty with the GEFS and EPS ensembles showing along-track spread implying some speed differences near landfall. While the system is now a tropical storm, the inner core wind field per reconnaissance observations is still broad and in the organizing stage, and initial intensification will be gradual. However, after an inner-core becomes established, and assuming the cyclone's vertical structure becomes aligned, a period of more significant intensification is possible while storm is embedded in a low shear, high mid-level moisture, and over very warm 30-31 C sea-surface temperatures. The SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices are pretty elevated, and a period of RI could also occur between 24-48 h. For now, the NHC intensity forecast will not explicitly forecast RI, but is higher than the previous cycle and shows a 75 kt peak in 48 h, in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. After that period, southwesterly vertical wind shear quickly increases from 10 kt to more than 30 kt and the intensity could plateau as it approaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf coastline, though the system is forecast to remain a hurricane at landfall. The NHC intensity forecast continues to be in good agreement with the consensus aids, but is a bit under the HAFS-A/B and COAMPS-TC models. Given the latest forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Louisiana coastline from Cameron to Grand Isle, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, TX eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama Border. With this advisory, the experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm watches in the U.S. will be available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. The experimental cone graphic can be found from a link on the page with the operational cone graphic once it is available on hurricanes.gov. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Francine is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Wednesday or Wednesday night and there is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge inundation for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the watch area should follow advice given by local officials. 2. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds in portions of southern Louisiana beginning Wednesday, where a Hurricane Watch is now in effect. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast of far northeast Mexico, portions of the southernmost Texas coast, the Upper Texas Coast, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 23.0N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 24.0N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 24.9N 95.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 26.3N 95.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 28.0N 93.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 29.7N 92.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...ON THE COAST 72H 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/1200Z 36.2N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/1200Z 37.5N 88.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Papin

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 14:56:42 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 09 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 091455 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 1500 UTC MON SEP 09 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) X(21) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) X(29) X(29) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) X(26) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 14(26) 1(27) X(27) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) 1(23) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 1(42) X(42) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 39(48) 1(49) X(49) HOUMA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) HOUMA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 33(42) 20(62) 1(63) X(63) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 1(53) X(53) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 44(56) 1(57) X(57) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) X(40) X(40) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 48(61) 1(62) X(62) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 48(63) 1(64) X(64) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) X(26) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 4( 6) 18(24) 54(78) 9(87) X(87) X(87) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 13(56) X(56) X(56) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 9(27) X(27) X(27) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 32(37) X(37) 1(38) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 37(54) X(54) X(54) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 36(44) 30(74) X(74) X(74) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 27(37) X(37) X(37) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) X(28) X(28) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 20(33) X(33) X(33) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 23(45) X(45) X(45) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 34(48) 8(56) X(56) X(56) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 25(32) 5(37) X(37) X(37) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 7( 9) 34(43) 31(74) 3(77) X(77) X(77) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 14(46) X(46) X(46) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 1 5( 6) 15(21) 20(41) 4(45) X(45) X(45) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 6( 7) 17(24) 14(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 270N 960W 34 5 22(27) 42(69) 8(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MCALLEN TX 34 1 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HARLINGEN TX 34 2 18(20) 10(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 7 32(39) 11(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) GFMX 250N 960W 34 72 20(92) 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GFMX 250N 960W 50 3 34(37) 14(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PESCA MX 34 5 6(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) TAMPICO MX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 09 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 091453 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 1500 UTC MON SEP 09 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 94.9W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 100SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 94.9W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 94.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 95.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.9N 95.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.3N 95.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.0N 93.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 45SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.7N 92.2W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 36.2N 89.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 37.5N 88.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 94.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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