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000
ABNT20 KNHC 091750
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Francine, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive
for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form while the system meanders over the central tropical
Atlantic. By the middle part of the week, the system is forecast
to move west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to merge in a couple of days
with a strong tropical wave currently near the coast of western
Africa. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely
form during the middle to latter part of this week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Francine are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Francine are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 17:46:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 15:22:53 GMT

...FRANCINE STRONGER AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD BE UNDERWAY... As of 1:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 the center of Francine was located near 23.7, -95.8 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 091746 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 ...FRANCINE STRONGER AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD BE UNDERWAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 95.8W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield * East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana * East of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 95.8 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow north-northwestward motion is expected for the remainder of the day, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and approaching the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday. Recent Air Force reconnaissance data indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional intensification is expected over the next day with more significant intensification forecast on Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches) based on dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning Tuesday, and for the extreme northern Texas and portions of the Louisiana coast on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the southern Texas coast, the far upper Texas coast and across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

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