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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 23:57:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 21:22:58 GMT

...FRANCINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 the center of Francine was located near 24.1, -96.0 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092357 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 ...FRANCINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 96.0W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for extreme southern Texas from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from La Pesca northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana * Vermilion Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City to Grand Isle * High Island to Sabine Pass * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield * La Pesca to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 96.0 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued north-northwest motion is expected through this evening followed by a turn to the northeast with some acceleration beginning Tuesday. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through Tuesday, and nearing the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico and south Texas through Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch area Tuesday and Tuesday night, and are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of northeast Mexico northward over the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, across southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen

000
ABNT20 KNHC 092354
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Francine, located roughly 100 miles offshore of northeastern
Mexico.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical
Atlantic is producing limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight
development during the next couple of days, but a tropical
depression could still form during that time while the system
meanders over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to merge in a couple of days
with a strong tropical wave currently located just offshore of the
western coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear favorable
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
will likely form during the latter part of this week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen