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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 14:43:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 15:23:03 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 966 WTNT22 KNHC 131440 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 38.6W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 38.6W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 38.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.8N 40.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N 42.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 20.4N 50.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 38.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROTH/BLAKE

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Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 131438 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 While some west-northwesterly shear exists over the cyclone, a combination of Dvorak satellite estimates and improved structure on satellite imagery since earlier this morning has led to the depression being upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, based on consensus Dvorak estimates around that value. The initial motion is a little slower toward the west-northwest (295/10 kt). While a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of Gordon is becoming more pronounced due to the possible retrogression of an upper low to its east-northeast, this appears to be only slowing the storm down. The track guidance indicates that the cyclone should turn westward by tonight and move slowly throughout much of the forecast period. By days 4 and 5, an amplifying shortwave trough to the north could cause Gordon to gradually turn northwestward, assuming the system can re-intensify. The official forecast is close to the previous prediction during the first 60 hours, but then is adjusted westward on days 3 through 5 following the latest model trends. Gordon has some chance to intensify today before moving deeper into the moisture-starved environment across the tropical Atlantic, and some weakening is anticipated this weekend. While the shear isn't expected to be too hostile, any re-intensification during next week is expected to be slow, and there is a chance that Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low. For now, the official forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for the entire forecast period. Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the system reaches a slightly more moist, unstable and low-shear environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 19.8N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 20.0N 42.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 20.4N 50.8W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roth/Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 131436 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROTH/BLAKE

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GORDON... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 13 the center of Gordon was located near 19.4, -38.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 131436 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GORDON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 38.6W ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 38.6 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and the storm is expected to move more to the west this weekend and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is expected today before a weakening trend begins on Saturday, Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roth/Blake

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

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