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Tropical Storm Gordon Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 20:41:08 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 21:22:58 GMT
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024
868
WTNT42 KNHC 132039
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024
Gordon continues to produce a convective canopy of cold cloud
tops near -75 C mainly to the east of the center, due to some
moderate westerly wind shear. An earlier AMSR2 microwave pass
depicted some banding features forming as well. Subjective and
objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have remained steady
around 35 kt. Thus, the intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.
The tropical storm continues to deal with some westerly wind shear
and has about 18 hours before encountering a drier airmass across
the central tropical Atlantic. So the current forecast shows the
potential for some slight strengthening before the unfavorable
airmass. Models depict that the cyclones wind field will weaken and
the system is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression. Simulated
satellite depicts that the cyclone will struggle convectively
through the middle part of the period and there is a chance that
Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low. For now, the official
forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for the entire
forecast period. Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the
system reaches a slightly more moist, unstable and low-shear
environment.
Gordon is moving slightly slower toward the west-northwest at 290/9
kt. The system is approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge
which will cause the system to slow its forward speed and turn more
westward by tonight. This slow westward to west-southwestward motion
will continue through much of the forecast period. An amplified
trough is forecast to move to the north of Gordon towards the end of
the period which could cause a turn toward the northwest and
northward by the end of the period. However, there is quite a spread
in the model guidance towards the end of the period due to the
differences in intensity and if Gordon is able to regain strength
toward the end of the period. The latest NHC forecast track is
slightly to the left of the previous and near the simple consensus
aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 19.5N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 19.8N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 19.7N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 19.5N 44.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 19.4N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 19.3N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 19.3N 47.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 19.9N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 20.8N 49.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024
000
FONT12 KNHC 132038
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024
855
WTNT22 KNHC 132037
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 39.5W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 39.5W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 39.0W
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.8N 40.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.7N 42.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.5N 44.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.4N 45.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N 46.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.3N 47.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 19.9N 49.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.8N 49.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 39.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Categories: Weather
Summary for Tropical Storm Gordon (AT2/AL072024)
...GORDON HOLDING STEADY...
As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 13
the center of Gordon was located near 19.5, -39.5
with movement WNW at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024
909
WTNT32 KNHC 132037
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024
...GORDON HOLDING STEADY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 39.5W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 39.5 West. Gordon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
westward is forecast by later tonight, with the system slowing down
through the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible today or tonight, before a
weakening trend begins on Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Categories: Weather
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Categories: Weather
Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine Graphics
Categories: Weather
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