Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 140843 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 The center of Gordon appears to be racing out ahead of the deep convective mass to its east in recent proxy-visible satellite images. This appearance is consistent with moderate deep-layer westerly shear over the cyclone as indicated by model soundings. Earlier scatterometer data showed the extent of tropical-storm-force winds was about 100 n mi in the northern semicircle of the storm. The circulation on the southwest side of the storm was not as well defined, with relatively weak winds and signs of elongation. A blend of the latest subjective TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which is also consistent with the scatterometer winds. The sheared storm is moving into a drier and more stable air mass, which is likely to induce some weakening during the next couple of days. In fact, some models continue to show the possibility of Gordon losing organized convection and degenerating to a remnant low. The official NHC forecast brings Gordon to a depression in 24 h but maintains it as a tropical cyclone for now. Environmental conditions should become less hostile by the middle of next week, and the NHC forecast indicates some re-strengthening could occur during that time. This part of the forecast remains conservative, as there are still several dynamical models that show little, if any, re-intensification later next week. Gordon appears to be moving west-northwestward (285/8 kt), but a gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast over the next couple of days, in good agreement with the latest track guidance. Track forecast confidence decreases at days 3-5, where the motion appears more sensitive to whether or not Gordon restrengthens. A weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge is forecast to develop, which would allow the system to gain some latitude if its vertical depth matches that steering level. However, a shallower system could continue moving slowly westward within the low-level flow. The updated NHC forecast shows a more gradual turn toward the northwest and north at days 3-5, in best agreement with the TVCA simple consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 20.1N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 20.0N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 19.7N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 19.5N 46.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 19.3N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 19.5N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 21.0N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...POORLY ORGANIZED GORDON MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 14 the center of Gordon was located near 20.1, -40.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 140843 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...POORLY ORGANIZED GORDON MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 40.9W ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 40.9 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly slower westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is anticipated over the next day or so, and Gordon is forecast to become a depression by early Sunday. Gradual restrengthening is possible by the middle part of next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 140843 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 140842 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 40.9W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 40.9W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 40.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.0N 42.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.7N 45.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 46.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.3N 48.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 19.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 51.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

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000
ABNT20 KNHC 140537
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The
Weather Prediction Center has issued the final advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine, located inland over Arkansas.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form this
weekend along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the
southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm
waters of the Gulf Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression
or storm could form early next week while the system moves
generally northwestward toward the coast. Additional information on
this system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP