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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 14:45:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 15:22:55 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141444 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 Gordon's center is exposed and located west of its deep convection. This structure is a symptom of the moderate westerly vertical wind shear that continues to plague the tropical storm. Gordon is also struggling with the entrainment of dry and stable airmass. Despite these environmental challenges, a recent scatterometer pass shows the cyclone maintaining 40 kt maximum sustained winds. This data is the basis for the initial intensity of this advisory, and agrees with a blend of the objective and subjective estimates. The scatterometer pass also shows a lopsided wind field, with tropical storm force winds limited to the northern semicircle of Gordon. In the southern semicircle, winds are weak and the vortex shows signs of elongation. The cyclone continues to move into a dry and stable airmass, which in conjunction with the ongoing shear is forecast to induce weakening today and tonight. Gordon is forecast to become a tropical depression on Sunday. Thereafter, the forecast maintains the cyclone as a tropical depression through the early part of next week, but it is possible that the system degenerates into a remnant low or a surface trough during that time. In fact, the GFS model indicates convection could collapse as soon as tonight or early Sunday. The ECMWF model maintains pulsing convection a bit longer. By the middle of next week, the environment should become less hostile and allow for some re-strengthening of Gordon. The intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory and remains on the lower end of the guidance beyond 72 h due to the uncertain future of the cyclone. Gordon is tracking westward 280/8 kt, and a gradual turn toward the west-southwest with a slower forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days, in good agreement with the latest track guidance. Model spread increases beyond 72 h due to differences in intensity and the overall structure of Gordon at that time. The current forecast continues the system slowly west-southwestward due to lack of steering flow. Towards the end of the forecast period, an approaching shortwave trough will weaken the mid-level subtropical ridge and would allow the system to turn northward. The updated track forecast is close to the previous advisory near the simple consensus aids, and shows a gradual turn toward the northwest and north beyond Day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 20.1N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 19.9N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.6N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 20.0N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 21.5N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 141443 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY/MAHONEY

...GORDON CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 14 the center of Gordon was located near 20.1, -41.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 141443 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...GORDON CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 41.7W ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 41.7 West. Gordon is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly slower westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon is forecast to continue to weaken and become a depression on Sunday. Gradual re-strengthening is possible by the middle part of next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney

Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman's status for Saturday's game at Florida is uncertain, sources told ESPN. A source called Weigman a "legitimate game-time decision" as the Aggies open SEC play in The Swamp.

49ers running back Christian McCaffrey will miss his second straight game at Minnesota as he continues to deal with lingering right calf and Achilles issues.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 141442 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 41.7W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 41.7W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 41.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.9N 44.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 46.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.6N 47.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 20.0N 50.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.5N 50.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 41.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/MAHONEY

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